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The Minor Leaguers (07-15-2024)

July 16, 2024

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Welcome to The Minor Leaguers.

We've had some great trades come out of this small-cap-focused column since we launched it back in 2020 and started rotating it with our flagship bottom-up scan, Under the Hood.

For the first year or so, we focused only on Russell 2000 stocks with a market cap between $1 and $2B.

That was fun, but we wanted to branch out a bit and allow some new stocks to find their way onto our list.

We expanded our universe to include some mid-caps.

Nowadays, to make the cut for our Minor Leaguers list now, a company must have a market cap between $1 and $4B.

And it doesn't have to be a Russell component — it can be any US-listed equity. With participation expanding around the globe, we want all those ADRs in our universe.

The same price and liquidity filters are applied. Then, as always, we sort by proximity to new highs in...

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[Options P2P] Daily Digest 7/16/24

July 16, 2024

In today’s Daily Digest, we’ll review the following:

  1. No new positions today.
  2. Rolled XLI position into September.
  3. No exits since the last report.
  4. Current status of open campaigns.

Let’s dig in!

This is Mid-Cycle Market Behavior

July 16, 2024

Are you paying attention to the things happening around you?

More stocks are going up in price, not fewer.

Consolidations and rangebound markets are resolving higher, not lower.

New leadership groups are emerging, not the same old leaders being recycled.

Big bottoms are completing and bases are breaking out to the upside, not huge tops breaking down to the downside.

And all of this while the world's most important stock market index is breaking out of a 4-month base to new all-time highs:

Hot Corner Insider

AP Moller Reports a $28.9 Million NE Purchase

July 16, 2024

The most significant insider buy on today's list comes via a Form 4 filing by AP Moller Holdings.

The investment company reported an additional purchase of $28.9 million in Noble Corporation $NE.

Viking Global Investors filed a 13G for Longboard Pharmaceuticals $LBPH revealing an initial stake of 5.20%.

Here’s The Hot Corner, with data from July 15, 2024:

 

In another Form 4, Michelle O'Hara, executive vice president and chief human resources officer of Science Applications International Corporation $SAIC, bought 1,000 shares of her own company’s stock.

Over in Washington, Sen. Markwayne Mullin of Oklahoma revealed a purchase worth between $15,000 and $50,000 in...

Hot Corner Insider

The Screamin' Hot Report: HUT

July 16, 2024

You won’t find many investment shops that know their way around the world of technology better than Coatue Management.

The firm was founded in 1999 by Philippe Laffont after leaving the renowned hedge fund, Tiger Management. 

Today, Coatue has emerged as one of the top “Tiger Cubs” and is revered for their astounding track record of investing in early-stage internet companies.

Coatue was there early in names like Tik-Tok, Snapchat, and Spotify… and most recently in OpenAI, the parent company of ChatGPT.

The firm made a new AI investment a few weeks ago, and it is one of the more significant insider transactions we’ve seen all year.

Allow me to explain…

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Mining Stocks > Shiny Rocks

July 15, 2024

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Precious metals might be the most straightforward trade on the sheets right now.

Gold is 10 bucks away from a new all-time high. Silver and platinum are holding above critical breakout levels. And mining stocks are ripping.

Close your eyes and take a swing. You’re bound to hit a winner.

But your odds of success (and potential payout) improve if you forego shiny rocks in favor of buying gold and silver mining stocks.

Check out the Gold Miners $GDX breaking out relative to the Physical Gold Trust ETF $GLD:

GDX outperforming GLD speaks to risk-seeking behavior – a bullish environment for mining stocks and physical metals.

No wonder Alamos Gold $AGI, Eldorado Gold $EGO, and Kinross Gold $KGC are posting fresh multi-year highs. The most resilient trends outperform their alternatives – just like the Gold Miners ETF in the above chart. 

Meanwhile, the laggards refuse to break down. Even Newfound Gold $NFGC – fresh off all-time lows – has rallied more than...

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All Star Charts Gold Rush

Mining Stocks > Shiny Rocks

July 15, 2024

Precious metals might be the most straightforward trade on the sheets right now.

Gold is ten bucks away from a new all-time high. Silver and platinum are holding above critical breakout levels. And mining stocks are ripping.

Close your eyes and take a swing. You’re bound to hit a winner.

But your odds of success (and potential payout) improve if you forego shiny rocks in favor of buying gold and silver mining stocks.

[Options] Going on a Viking Quest

July 15, 2024

In today's episode of The Flow Show, me and Steve Strazza talk about the uniquely interesting market we currently find ourselves in, and we delve into a sector that appears to be making a long overdue turn higher, and a stock within the sector that is positioned for a potentially monster breakout.

Here's the big picture setup of Viking Therapeutics $VKTX:

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[Options P2P] Daily Digest 7/15/24

July 15, 2024

In today’s Daily Digest, we’ll review the following:

  1. No new positions today.
  2. Rolled XME position into September.
  3. No exits since the last report.
  4. Current status of open campaigns.

Let’s dig in!

Your Bull Market Continues

July 15, 2024

It's worth pointing out that despite the events over the weekend, you're not seeing any bid at all for Gold.

It's the stock market that's getting a bid. It's Bitcoin that's up 6% since Saturday.

And it's the Small-cap Indexes that are hitting new 30-month highs:

Hot Corner Insider

Abdiel Capital Reports an $18 Million APPN Purchase

July 15, 2024

The most significant insider buy on today's list comes via a Form 4 filing by Abdiel Capital LP.

The investment firm reported a purchase of $18 million in Appian Corporation $APPN.

Here’s The Hot Corner, with data from July 12, 2024:

 

Deep Track Capital filed a 13G for Verona Pharma plc $VRNA revealing an initial stake of 5.08%.

VRNA came public in May 2017 and has been building a monster base since its IPO.

Last week, price reclaimed the AVWAP from last year's highs with authority, and VRNA is now approaching another critical resistance level:

 

The bias is sideways for longer if price remains stuck in the range. However we have a clear level at approximately 26.50.

If and when buyers lift prices above that area of ​​overhead supply, VRNA could finally take off.

Stay tuned. We'll be back on...

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🔍 The Great Catch-Up

July 14, 2024

Last week I maintained my bullish directional biases even in the face of another down leg in crypto markets. Today, we're monitoring an increasing number of failed breakdowns, meaning that bulls are once again asserting control of the tape.

[Podcast] Michael Nauss is Our Kind of Geek

July 13, 2024

When Michael Nauss first sat down at a trading desk, his computer had a keyboard and a screen. But no mouse.

And his screen displayed an order book. But no charts.

Thus began his career as a scalper working the order book, who paid no attention at all to trends or technical analysis. He was simply trying to find spots to buy ahead of large buyers and flip the position out for a quick couple of ticks. Do this a couple hundred times per trading session and perhaps he’d have a successful day.

This was all part of Michael’s journey of learning to walk before he could run. And it is a mantra that sticks with him to this day as he himself continues to learn and helps many others learn the craft of trading.

Michael says: “Learning is often about “UN” learning.“ 

People are frequently drawn to trading by a social media personality or a brokerage advertisement, and they are like moths to the flame of fast riches and early retirement. Then they lose.

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The Hall of Famers (07-12-2024)

July 13, 2024

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Our Hall of Famers list is composed of the 150 largest US-based stocks.

These stocks range from the mega-cap growth behemoths like Apple and Microsoft – with market caps in excess of $2T – to some of the new-age large-cap disruptors such as Crowdstrike and Paypal.

It has all the big names and more.

It doesn’t include ADRs or any stock not domiciled in the US. But don’t worry; we developed a separate universe for that. Click here to check it out.

The Hall of Famers is simple.

We take our list of 150 names and then apply our technical filters so the strongest stocks with the most momentum rise to the top.

Let’s dive right in and check out what these big boys are up to.

Here’s this week’s list:

*Click table to enlarge view

We filter out any laggards that are down -5% or more relative to the S&P 500 over the trailing month.

Then, we sort the remaining...

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Will Lumber Futures Shore Up the Stock Market Rally?

July 12, 2024

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Today’s analyst meeting was one broken record after another as we ripped through the most important charts on the market.

Not a top, never hit oversold

Not a top, never hit oversold

There’s a raging bull market on Wall Street right now. 

But the fun and games will come to a screeching halt if the following chart rolls over.

Check out the economically sensitive Home Construction ETF $ITB:

ITB checks both boxes.  It never hit oversold levels and is only a top if it breaks below 97. 

Plus, it’s ripping! 

Of course, we need a decisive resolution above the March high of 116.34 to confirm our bullish bias. 

But if the next bull run has legs, ITB will post new all-time highs. 

That also means lumber futures have to stop falling.

Futures have slid more than  28% beneath the March peak. If buyers are ever going to step and support higher lumber prices, this is it!

...

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All Star Charts Gold Rush

Will Lumber Futures Shore Up the Stock Market Rally?

July 12, 2024

Today’s analyst meeting was one broken record after another as we ripped through the most important charts on the market.

Not a top, never hit oversold

Not a top, never hit oversold

There’s a raging bull market on Wall Street right now. 

But the fun and games will come to a screeching halt if the following chart rolls over.