Today's number is... -0.2%

As we near the end of the first quarter of 2025, the average stock in the S&P 500 has a negative return of -0.2% year to date.

Here’s the table:

Let's break down what the table shows:

Each row in the table represents the average stock within each S&P 500 sector. The first column shows the average year-to-date percentage. The second column reflects the average percentage relative to the 50-day moving average. The third column indicates the average percentage relative to the 200-day moving average. The fourth column displays the average percentage from the 52-week high, while the fifth column shows the average percentage from the all-time high.

The Takeaway: The average stock within the S&P 500 index has dropped by -0.2% year-to-date. Among the sectors, the average energy stock is performing well, showing an increase of 7.2%. In contrast, the average technology stock is struggling, down by -5.1% year-to-date.

Overall market leadership has become increasingly narrower in Q1 of 2025. 

In a healthy bull market, stocks typically...

Today's number is... 20

Today marks the 20th day this year that the S&P 500 has seen a daily change of +/- 1%.

Here is the table listing the years with 20 or more +/- 1% daily changes in the first quarter:

Let's break down what the table shows:

The first column displays the years when the S&P 500 saw 20 or more daily changes of +/- 1%. The second column indicates the total count of these daily changes in the first quarter. The third column represents the return for each year. At the bottom, there is a statistical table.

The Takeaway: Volatility often results in significant market movements in either direction. Historically, these large daily fluctuations tend to cluster together during periods of market weakness.

We have done the math, and the stock market generally tends to perform better when the environment is quiet: When the S&P 500 moves less than 1%, and strong: When the stock market has 52-week new highs that are greater than new lows. Right now, the environment is noisy: The S&P 500 is moving...

Today's number is... 24

We have experienced 24 consecutive days where the number of 52-week new lows on the NYSE + NASDAQ exceeds the number of 52-week new highs.

Here’s the chart:

Let's break down what the chart shows:

• The green and red candlesticks in the top panel is the S&P 500 index price.
• The green and red lines in the middle panel is the NYSE + NASDAQ 52-week new highs - 52-week new lows.
• The red shadings in the bottom panel shows the consecutive days with NYSE + NASDAQ 52-week new lows > 52-week new highs.

The Takeaway: Bulls are making a strong effort following the recent market correction. However, NYSE + NASDAQ 52-week new lows are still lingering. This marks the highest level of consecutive days of new lows outpacing new highs we've seen since the last 10% market correction back in October 2023. This is the third longest period of consecutive days with NYSE + NASDAQ new lows > new highs during this current bull market. 

But, the Bulls have completed the first stage...

Today's number is... 27%

Only 27% of S&P 500 sectors are currently above their 50-day moving average.

Here’s the chart:

Let's break down what the chart shows:

• The blue line in the top panel shows the price of the S&P 500 index.
• The red line in the top panel shows the 50-day moving average of the S&P 500 index.
• The black line in the bottom panel shows the percentage of S&P 500 sectors above their 50-day Average.

The Takeaway: As of yesterday's close, only 27% of S&P 500 sectors are currently trading above their 50-day moving average… In short, this breadth reading needs to improve sooner rather than later, as the S&P 500 typically faces challenges when the majority of sectors are below their 50-day moving averages. 

The 10% correction we experienced in late February into early March caused some damage to the intermediate trend. However, over the past seven trading days, we have seen a resurgence of bullish activity, with the S&P 500 index climbing over 4%. While...

Today's number is... 10

S&P 500’s price is currently trading under its 10-month moving average.

Here’s the chart:

Let's break down what the chart shows:

• The black line is the S&P 500 index price.
• The red line is the 10-month moving average of the S&P 500 index price.
• The gray lines highlight when the price is above the 10-month moving average.

The Takeaway: With just six trading days left in the month, there's one model I'm paying close attention to. The bulls need to work hard to push the S&P 500 price back above its 10-month moving average. At the moment, the S&P 500 is 1.7% below this moving average. If the price stays below it, this could create challenges for stocks.

I have done the math… Take a look at the table on the chart.

If you've been following me for some time, you know that I like to know what type of market environment we’re in. One of the simplest strategies I use for assessing the longer-term environment is: If...

Today's number is... 12

The Philadelphia Gold and Silver Index just closed at fresh 12-year highs.

Here’s the chart:

The Takeaway: The Philadelphia Gold and Silver Index, an index of thirty precious metal mining companies traded on the Philadelphia Stock Exchange, closed yesterday at a fresh 12-year high.

This base-on-base breakout in the Philadelphia Gold and Silver Index suggests the path of least resistance is higher for precious metals.

100% of the stocks in the index are above their 50-day moving average.

80% are above their 200-day moving average.

If you didn't know already, we’re in the midst of a serious gold rush.

There is nothing bearish about this for precious metal stocks! 

Are you buying precious metal stocks here?

Let me know!

Grant Hawkridge | Chief Aussie Operator...

Today's number is... 1

Out of the seven global regions I track, only one is negative year-to-date, and that is the United States.

Here’s the chart:

Let's break down what the chart shows:

• Each line represents a different global region's year-to-date performance.
  • Green lines represent global regions that have a positive year-to-date performance.
  • Red lines represent global regions that have a negative year-to-date performance.
  • The black line shows the year-to-date performance of the All Country World Index.

The Takeaway: The global leadership has shifted in 2025.

In 2024, the United States was the leading region with an impressive return of 24%, while Europe Ex-UK was the worst region which lagged behind with only a 0.9% yearly return.

However, in the 52 trading days of 2025, Europe Ex-UK has emerged as the current leader, posting an impressive year-to-date return of 19% so far. In contrast, the United States is underperforming every region among the seven I track and is the only region to...

Today's number is... 27%

Global breadth is expanding in 2025... NOT narrowing… Over 27% of world markets have made 52-week highs in the past two weeks.

Here’s the chart:

Let's break down what the chart shows:

• The blue line in the top panel is the MSCI All Country World index price.
• The green line in the bottom panel represents the percentage of world markets making 52-week highs over the past two weeks.
• The red line in the bottom panel represents the percentage of world markets making 52-week lows over the past two weeks.

The Takeaway: If you want to know where leadership in the markets has shifted too since weakness emerged in the US, look no further than the rest of the world. 

Global market breadth is improving rather than deteriorating, indicating that there is underlying strength in international markets, potentially presenting us with opportunities. However, many US investors are missing out on these because of a home-country bias and a sprinkle of recency bias. (...

Today's number is... 90%

The S&P 500 has just posted back-to-back days of 90% or more advancing issues.

Here’s the chart:

Here’s a bonus table that highlights the S&P 500’s forward returns following back-to-back days of 90% advancing issues:

The Takeaway: Back-to-back days with 90% of advancing issues in the S&P 500 don't happen too often. This signal indicates that the bulls are still in the game! Since 2008, this has only happened nine times, and yesterday marked the tenth occurrence.

When we analyze the data, we see that the short term might be a bit choppy. However, as we know, volatility can lead to big moves in either direction. Historically, these large swings tend to cluster around the bottom points of market corrections.

On a positive note, when we look one year after this signal, we find that 88.9% of the occurrences have resulted in positive returns, with an average gain of over 16%. 

Is this the first sign of a tailwind for the Bulls? Maybe…

I will be closely monitoring whether the bulls can maintain their recent leadership...

Today's number is... 16

The relative ratio of the World Ex-US index versus the S&P 500 is on the verge of breaking out of a 16-year downtrend.

Here’s the chart:

Let's break down what the chart shows:

• The blue line shows the relative ratio of World Ex-US versus the S&P 500 Index.

The Takeaway: The US has been outperforming the rest of the world for a long time. However, since the beginning of the year, the ratio of the World Ex-US index versus the S&P 500 has been ripping higher and is now on the verge of breaking a 16-year downtrend.

Let me break down the favorable changes I have seen happen to this ratio over the past 3 months: 

• The ratio is now above both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages.
• The slope of the 50-day moving average is trending upward.
• The RSI is above 80, the highest RSI reading this ratio has ever reached.

This is not enough evidence to confirm a trend change. So, for me to confirm that the trend has shifted in favor of the World Ex-US, I need to see the following:...

Today's number is... 10%

The S&P 500 has now experienced a 10% correction.

Here’s the chart:

Let's break down what the chart shows:

• The blue line in the top panel is the S&P 500 index price.
• The gray bars in the second panel are the number of days prior to the start of a 5% correction.
• The yellow bars in the third panel are the number of days prior to the start of a 10% correction.
• The red bars in the fourth panel are the number of days prior to the start of a 20% correction.

The Takeaway: “Not every crack becomes a gorge; not every gorge becomes a chasm. However, every chasm starts from a crack.” - Willie Delwiche

It was only last week I wrote a daily number note that the S&P 500 had a...

Today's number is... 100%

Whether you're looking at short, intermediate, or long-term trends, 100% of the major indices are currently trading below their key moving averages.

Here’s the table:

Let's break down what the table shows:

The first column of the table lists several major indexes. Each subsequent column represents a different moving average, ranging from the 5-day average to the 200-day average. A green box indicates that the index price is above the particular moving average, and a red box shows that the index price is below that moving average.

The Takeaway: The way I learned it was not to fight the trend… Also, nothing good happens when price is below moving averages.

And right now, all I can see is red... Every major index is below its 5-day moving average all the way to its 200-day moving average.

When prices fall below their moving averages, they are not in uptrends. They may not necessarily be in downtrends, but they certainly are not trending higher.

If stocks continue to decline, uptrends cannot persist....