From the Desk of Kimmy Sokoloff

As of now, $SPY and $QQQ are consolidating.

$IWM looks dreadful.

And anything can change by Monday. 

The next new position in our Paid-to-Play portfolio is:

From the Desk of Steve Strazza and Alfonso Depablos

Today’s Hot Corner is another short one.

The largest insider buy on the list comes in a Form 4 filing by Randall J. Weisenburger, independent director of Carnival Corporation & plc $CCL.

From the Desk of Kimmy Sokoloff

Happy Friday the 13th!

The market really shifted directions yesterday, and $IWM led the way lower.

From the Desk of Steve Strazza and Alfonso Depablos

Today’s Hot Corner is another short one.

The largest insider buy on the list comes in a Form 4 filing by Randall J. Weisenburger, independent director of Carnival Corporation & plc $CCL.

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza and Alfonso Depablos @AlfCharts

Markets have been able to stage a significant rebound off the lows from last week.

After some massive bullish engulfing candles Friday, the major averages - led by mega-cap growth stocks, have exhibited strong follow-through to start the week.

That changed a little today as markets gave back some gains as the dollar and rates ticked higher.

The bottom line is there is still work to do. While stocks appear to have found a tradable low, that doesn't tell us much about where we go from here.

If the dollar and rates hold current levels, things are likely to remain messy.

However, even under this scenario, we think there will be some big winners as we march forward to the end of the year. And all indications from the market suggest most of those winners will be from the tech and growth space.

Let's outline some of our favorites right here, right now.

From the Desk of Alfonso Depablos @Alfcharts

The negative correlation between equities and the dollar remains intact, representing a fundamental piece of the current intermarket puzzle.

When the dollar strengthens, stocks tend to fall under selling pressure. On the flip side, stocks often enjoy strong bull runs when the dollar trends lower.

That's been the case for some time now. 

When we zoom in on this relationship, it becomes clear as day why the dollar should be on the mind of every stock market investor right now.

Below is a 15-minute chart of the S&P 500 Futures and the US Dollar Index over the last week.

From the Desk of Alfonso Depablos @Alfcharts

Banks are considered one of the world's most important industry groups as they provide an excellent overview of the economic environment and overall risk appetite toward markets.

After suffering a deep decline in Q1, prices carved out a tradable low, rebounded, and settled into a well-defined trading range.

However, these laggards continue to be a concern for the financial sector and the broader market as the charts look vulnerable heading into earnings season.

Here we have Money-Center Banks $KBE, Regional Banks $KRE, and Community Banks $QABA, all of which are below their AVWAPS from the May lows:

From the Desk of Kimmy Sokoloff

That was a wild day for the market.

In the pre-market $SPY hit my target of 438.40 that I mentioned all week.

Unfortunately, we couldn't hit that level during trading hours.

We've adjusted a position in the Paid-to-Play portfolio today:

From the Desk of Steve Strazza and Alfonso Depablos

Today’s Hot Corner is a short one.

The largest insider buy on today’s list comes in a Form 4 filing by David Naemura, CFO of Neogen Corporation $NEOG.

From the Desk of Steve Strazza and Alfonso Depablos

Today’s Hot Corner is a short one.

The largest insider buy on today’s list comes in a Form 4 filing by David Naemura, CFO of Neogen Corporation $NEOG.

From the Desk of Kimmy Sokoloff

We have CPI data for September this morning.

I mentioned last week that we could see $SPY at the 438.40 gap.

We're here this morning.

This is the video recording of the October 11, 2023, Hot Corner Insider Weekly Strategy Session.

From the Desk of Kimmy Sokoloff

The indices traded sideways most of the morning.

Tomorrow we have CPI data for September, so we might see whipsaws.

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Price doesn’t move in a straight line.

Just don’t tell the US dollar, which has managed to post positive gains for 11 straight weeks. 

But the US Dollar Index $DXY is sporting its deepest drawdown since mid-July – a mere 0.2% – as buyers catch their breath.

Five down days and counting have my attention, though it doesn’t shift my bullish bias for King Dollar.

Not yet!

Check out last week’s DXY candle:

Buyers drove prices higher over the course of last week only to succumb to selling pressure by Friday’s close. 

The long upper shadow and small real body at the lower end of the range form a “northern doji” candlestick. It indicates the market is exhausted, explaining the continued selling pressure.

But it’s the first lower weekly close in 12 weeks. The DXY hasn’t gone on...

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Welcome to The 2 to 100 Club.

As many of you know, something we've been working on internally is using various bottom-up tools and scans to complement our top-down approach.

It's really been working for us!

One way we're doing this is by identifying the strongest growth stocks as they climb the market-cap ladder from small- to mid- to large- and, ultimately, to mega-cap status (over $200B).

Once they graduate from small-cap to mid-cap status (over $2B), they come on our radar. Likewise, when they surpass the roughly $30B mark, they roll off our list.

But the scan doesn't just end there.

We only want to look at the strongest growth industries in the market, as that is typically where these potential 50-baggers come from.

Some of the best performers in recent decades – stocks like Priceline, Amazon, Netflix, Salesforce, and myriad others – would have been on this list at some point...

[12/4/23: moving stop to 550]

Today's trade is a bet on stocks making a run back towards all-time highs over the next 3-6 months. If you don't believe that's in the cards for stocks, then this trade isn't for you.

Unfortunately, its also a trade in a stock with a high trading price, so the margin requirement may perhaps be a bit onerous for some.

If you're in either camp, there's no shame in skipping this trade. It's not for everyone.

If I haven't scared you off yet, then keep reading...

Now is the time.

If stocks are going to go, this is when they usually do it.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average is only 9% from making a new all-time high.

So is the S&P500.

And what do I think the catalyst is going to be?

Let me rephrase that....

What do I think the catalyst needs to be?

A weaker US Dollar!