From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Precious metals no longer deserve the benefit of the doubt.

They no longer represent an opportunity cost, either.

No, gold and crew carry downside risk – nothing else!

What changed since last week? 

Gold futures undercut a critical level of interest…

That’s the former commodity supercycle peak marked by the 2011 high.

Check out the monthly candlestick chart of gold futures:

The impressive resilience that’s defined gold and precious metals for most of this year has given way to overwhelming weakness.

Sellers have cracked the 1,923 level and any bullish conviction for these shiny rocks.

We can’t own gold, gold mining stocks, or precious metals more broadly – at least not now.

Gold and silver triggered sell signals last week. I’ve highlighted critical areas of former and potential support.

Those levels stand. Review the chartbook below and today’s Gold Rush video for updates. 

It’s not all doom and gloom for the gold bugs, though. In fact, gold is likely carving out a multi-year base with a bullish bias:

Nevertheless, if that...

We've adjusted a position in the Paid-to-Play portfolio today:

From the Desk of Steve Strazza and Alfonso Depablos

The largest insider buy on today’s list comes in a Form 4 filing by Paul Pittman, executive chairman of Farmland Partners Inc $FPI.

Pittman revealed an FPI purchase worth roughly $1 million.

From the Desk of Kimmy Sokoloff

Futures were up overnight, and then poof, we're now back to flat.

Remember, the market couldn't get going on Friday...

From the Desk of Steve Strazza and Alfonso Depablos

The largest insider buy on today’s list comes in a Form 4 filing by Paul Pittman, executive chairman of Farmland Partners Inc $FPI.

Pittman revealed an FPI purchase worth roughly $1 million.

From the Desk of Kimmy Sokoloff

Futures were up overnight, and then “poof,” we’re now back to flat.

Remember, the market couldn’t get going on Friday…

This is the weekly post that aggregates all the charts we put together throughout the week and organizes them all into one, easy to flip through deck.

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

I need to set the record straight.

Earlier in spring, I wrote a note highlighting wheat’s tendency to lead crude oil at key inflection points.  

While this statement is mostly true, it needs clarification.

Chicago wheat does have a tendency to lead crude oil at significant market tops. But crude leads at critical troughs.

Check out the crude oil overlaid with Chicago wheat futures:

Notice crude bottomed in Q1 of  2009, 2016, and earlier this year. Chicago wheat followed roughly six to nine months later, marking critical turning points in late Q3 of 2009 and 2016.

Will wheat do the same in 2023? 

I don’t know. But strong seasonal trends are clearly at work in both markets. 

And if crude oil’s rally provides any indication, I have to lean toward "yes." 

Here are crude oil futures breaking out of a multi-month base...

From the Desk of Kimmy Sokoloff

The market gapped up this morning, and then the indices dropped into their respective gaps.

We'll know more next week about whether this rally will continue...

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Our International Hall of Famers list is composed of the 100 largest US-listed international stocks, or ADRs.

We've also sprinkled in some of the largest ADRs from countries that did not make the market cap cut. 

These stocks range from some well-known mega-cap multinationals such as Toyota Motor and Royal Dutch Shell to some large-cap global disruptors such as Sea Ltd and Shopify.

It's got all the big names and more–but only those that are based outside the US. You can find all the largest US stocks on our original Hall of Famers list.

The beauty of these scans is really in their simplicity.

We take the largest names each week and then apply technical filters in a way that the strongest stocks with the most momentum rise to the top.

Based on the market environment, we can also flip the scan on its head and filter for weakness.

Let's dive in and take a look at some of the most important stocks from around the world.

Here's this week's list:

...

Yesterday's trading action in $TLT, the 20-year treasury bond ETF, gives me confidence that it might have been a near-term low.

I'm making the bet that it'll hold for at least a few weeks. And the elevated options premiums here give us ample ammunition to wait it out.

From the Desk of Kimmy Sokoloff

The market gapped up this morning, and then the indices dropped into their respective gaps.

We’ll know more next week about whether this rally will continue…

The next new position in our Paid-to-Play portfolio is:

From the Desk of Steve Strazza and Alfonso Depablos

The largest insider buy on today’s list comes in a Form 4 filing by Coliseum Capital Management.

The hedge fund reported a purchase of roughly $5.3 million in MasterCraft Boat Holdings $MCFT, raising its  ownership stake to 9.28%.

From the Desk of Kimmy Sokoloff

Out goes September and in comes October.

We've seen that October can be bumpy for the first few weeks and then level out as we approach Halloween.

From the Desk of Kimmy Sokoloff

Out goes September and in comes October.

We’ve seen that October can be bumpy for the first few weeks and then level out as we approach Halloween.

From the Desk of Steve Strazza and Alfonso Depablos

The largest insider buy on today’s list comes in a Form 4 filing by Coliseum Capital Management.

The hedge fund reported a purchase of roughly $5.3 million in MasterCraft Boat Holdings $MCFT, raising its  ownership stake to 9.28%.

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Welcome to The Junior International Hall of Famers.

With the goal of finding more bullish setups, we have decided to expand one of our favorite scans and broaden our regular coverage of the largest US-listed international stocks, or ADRs.

This scan is composed of the next 100 largest stocks by market cap, those that come after the top 100 and are thus covered by the International Hall of Famers universe.

Many of these names will someday graduate and join our original International Hall Of Famers list. The idea here is to catch these big trends as early on as possible.

Let's dive right in and check out what these future big boys are up to.

This is our Junior International Hall of Famers list:

Click table to enlarge view

From the Desk of Alfonso Depablos @Alfcharts

The stock market has been under duress for the past two months as bears have taken control and driven the major averages to their lowest levels since early June.

Whether you look at the large-cap indexes or the strongest sectors and industry groups, they are all stuck below overhead supply.

And with price action continuing to deteriorate, many of these charts are now carving out potential short-term tops.

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Stocks and bonds look vulnerable right now. 

US T-bonds are sliding to fresh decade lows. The S&P 500 completed a three-month top last week.  And the Nasdaq 100 is on the verge of doing the same. 

Those summer highs are receding into the collective memory bank, replaced by new lows and growing unease. Sellers are out in full force.

But instead of allowing the near-term selling pressure and overall choppy conditions to throw us off balance, let’s focus on the one underlying trend tying this market together…

Rising interest rates!

Check out the commodity-bond ratio overlaid with US 30-year yield $TYX:

I presented this chart yesterday during the Chart Summit – no markups needed.

For whatever reason, I’ve never shared this chart before. Perhaps I thought it...