From the Desk of Kimmy Sokoloff

I believe we're in wait-and-see mode until Friday!

It's a "What Will Jerome Say?" market.

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Gold is hanging on for dear life.

Rising interest rates and a strengthening dollar create formidable headwinds for the shiny yellow rock.

I remain optimistic for the entire precious metals space, but hope is not a viable trading strategy – especially if gold undercuts its 2011 highs.

Some gold bugs may find it difficult to accept, but gold’s a short if and when it decisively closes below its prior commodity supercycle peak.

And it’s trading back at those former highs today…

This trade doesn't need a long-winded send-up. Because it's the same story as the trade we put on in $FCX on Friday.

So let's get right to it.

Here's the trade:

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Gold is hanging on for dear life.

Rising interest rates and a strengthening dollar create formidable headwinds for the shiny yellow rock.

I remain optimistic for the entire precious metals space, but hope is not a viable trading strategy – especially if gold undercuts its 2011 highs.

Some gold bugs may find it difficult to accept, but gold’s a short if and when it decisively closes below its prior commodity supercycle peak.

And it’s trading back at those former highs today…

Let’s review the levels.

Check out the monthly candlestick chart of gold futures:

I understand the August candle is incomplete. It doesn’t bother me. 

I’m not analyzing the current month’s candlestick. Instead, the prior-cycle peak from 2011 holds my focus. 

The monthly chart simply provides the most precise depiction of that crucial level.

Notice gold has managed to hang tough – five months and counting –  since it reclaimed those critical former highs last March.

It retested those highs in May, June, and August, three of the last four months.

Bullish bias aside...

We've adjusted a position in the Paid-to-Play portfolio today:

The largest insider transaction on today’s list comes in a Form 4 filed by Sylebra Capital Ltd.

The hedge fund reported a purchase of 415,751 shares of Impinj Inc, equivalent to $25.2 million.

From the Desk of Kimmy Sokoloff

Some would say this is a big week.

With the Fed's Jackson Hole Economic Symposium on deck, all eyes will be on Jerome Powell.

Now we need to see if this rally lasts.

If so, $SPY has near-term potential to 441.

Some would say this is a big week.

With the Fed’s Jackson Hole Economic Symposium on deck, all eyes will be on Jerome Powell.

Now we need to see if this rally lasts.

If so, $SPY has near-term potential to 441.

Are we all just going to assume that these consolidations in interest rates are about to resolve higher?

Seems like everyone around me considers this breakout to be foregone conclusion:

This is the weekly post that aggregates all the charts we put together throughout the week and organizes them all into one, easy to flip through deck.

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza and Alfonso Depablos @AlfCharts

Our International Hall of Famers list is composed of the 100 largest US-listed international stocks, or ADRs.

We’ve also sprinkled in some of the largest ADRs from countries that did not make the market cap cut. 

These stocks range from some well-known mega-cap multinationals such as Toyota Motor and Royal Dutch Shell to some large-cap global disruptors such as Sea Ltd and Shopify.

It’s got all the big names and more–but only those that are based outside the US. You can find all the largest US stocks on our original Hall of Famers list.

The beauty of these scans is really in their simplicity.

We take the largest names each week and then apply technical filters in a way that the strongest stocks with the most momentum rise to the top.

Based on the market environment, we can also flip the scan on its head and filter for weakness.

Let’s dive in and take a look at some of the most important stocks from around the world.

Here’s this week’s list:

...

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley 

We like buying energy.

Who doesn’t? 

Energy stocks are resolving higher and holding their breakouts, something few market areas can claim this quarter.

It makes sense.

Interest rates are rising across the curve as the US 10- and 30-year yields eclipse last year’s high.

Procyclical commodities and value-oriented stocks are responding as they tend to benefit the most as yields climb.

And when we add a dash of stock market rotation – bam! 

Energy-related assets are making contact!

But while rates continue to rise and energy names are ripping, crude oil has not been able to break out…

Check out the daily chart of crude oil futures sliding back within its prior range:

...

From the Desk of Kimmy Sokoloff

After a volatile week finally Friday is here.

We had a few good trades to end the week.

This is the video recording of the August 18, 2023, Hot Corner Insider Weekly Strategy Session.

We had a resting GTC order filled at our profit target in the Paid-to-Play portfolio today:

As I and the team have discussed on The Morning Show and this week's Options Jam Session, I'm on the hunt for opportunities to sell delta-neutral option premium with $VIX exploring higher levels than we've seen in recent months.

Today's trade is in a sector ETF exhibiting elevated options premiums and signs for extended rangebound action.

And October options are offering us enough premiums to trade strikes sufficiently far away from current action, beyond significant support and resistance levels.

As far as setups for delta-neutral premium collection go, this one checks all the boxes.

Here's the Play:

We've adjusted a position in the Paid-to-Play portfolio today:

From the Desk of Kimmy Sokoloff

Inflation worries, higher yields, and the dollar rising typically spells trouble for equities.

I mentioned in the Live Trading Room yesterday that if the S&P 500  breaks 4,400 we can see 4,370. An overbought market can stay overbought, and an oversold market can stay oversold.

This has been a slow bleed lower. It's not an easy market to trade, so I tell people to back away or trade very small.

Everyone's a hero when the market goes up!

They're starting to hit a lot of names.

The Regime change in the market is real.

It's much different today than it was in the first half of the year.

And that's perfectly normal. Anything else would actually be very unusual.

The strategies that worked in the first 6 months are not working well in this environment. But the strategies that did NOT work in the first half of the year are much better in the current market.

See: Regime Change

For example, high volatility strategies were mostly terrible in the first half of the year. That's because we were in a low volatility environment. It was our low vol strategies that worked...