From the Desk of Kimmy Sokoloff

The market is kind of drifting and seems to be in an indecision mode.

This week could be tough trading with earnings and the Fed.

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza.

Welcome back to Under the Hood, where we'll cover all the action for the week ended July 21, 2023. This report is published bi-weekly and rotated with The Minor Leaguers.

What we do here is analyze the most popular stocks during the week and find opportunities to either join in and ride these momentum names higher, or fade the crowd and bet against them.

We use a variety of sources to generate the list of most popular names.

There are so many new data sources available that all we need to do is organize and curate them in a way that shows us exactly what we want: a list of stocks that are seeing an unusual increase in investor interest.

Click here for a behind-the-scenes look at our process.

Whether we’re measuring increasing interest based on large institutional purchases, unusual options activity, or...

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Here comes the Fed.

Another FOMC decision is upon us.

But the market has the central bank’s number this time, or so it seems.

The fed fund futures are pricing in an almost certain chance we’ll see a 25-basis-point rate hike come Wednesday.

With general consensus running at all-time highs, the focus will shift toward Jerome Powell’s words, basically the Fed’s forward guidance.

I won’t tune in to that press conference.

What I will do is monitor price.

When it comes to precious metals I’m following absolute trends, as usual, but I’m also tracking these two critical relative trends…

First, let’s take a look at the Gold Miners ETF $GDX versus the S&P 500 ETF $SPY:

It’s now or never for gold miners.

Gold mining stocks are, without a doubt, participating in gold’s rally to new all-time highs. It’s difficult to imagine a scenario where they don’t.

And when assets climb within strong uptrends, they tend to outperform their alternatives.

Notice the GDX-to-SPY ratio ripped higher during gold’s rally in 2016 and 2019-20.

I expect similar relative...

I’m continuing to travel throughout Southeast Asia — to eight different countries — with my All Star Charts analyst Steve Strazza, giving presentations at local Chartered Market Technicians (CMT) Association events, meeting local traders, enjoying native cuisines, and just marveling about the similarities we traders from different corners of the world all share.

So for the rest of the month of July and into early August, I’m going to cut the preamble and get right to the action for you guys.

As such, here’s the trade I’ll be putting on today:

The next new position in our Paid-to-Play portfolio is:

The largest insider buy on today’s list comes in a Form 4 filing by SRB Corporation.

The advisory firm revealed a purchase of $2.1 million in Safety Insurance Group $SAFT.

From the Desk of Kimmy Sokoloff

It's a busy earnings week, and we have an FOMC decision coming on Wednesday.

Futures are up some this morning.

From the Desk of Kimmy Sokoloff

We’re seeing a slight bounce this morning after yesterday’s sell-off.

It’s monthly options expiration today, so things could get volatile.

This is the weekly post that aggregates all the charts we put together throughout the week and organizes them all into one, easy to flip through deck.

Technical Analysis is the study of the behavior of the market and its participants.

So while identifying price trends is our ultimate goal, sentiment plays an important role in that process.

Prices don't move up or down because of "fundamentals" or "the economy". The price of assets move based on positioning.

When investors are all positioned one way, and are at a consensus, who's left to drive prices further in that direction?

Last summer we saw some of the most pessimistic sentiment towards stocks in history.

Some of that sentiment has started to shift a bit, like in the AAII and II polls. We're back somewhere towards the middle in those. You need, at least, some bulls to buy stocks to have a bull market.

But when it comes to Fund Managers, Cash is still their largest position, and they're most bearish on equities.

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza and Alfonso Depablos @AlfCharts

Our International Hall of Famers list is composed of the 100 largest US-listed international stocks, or ADRs.

We’ve also sprinkled in some of the largest ADRs from countries that did not make the market cap cut. 

These stocks range from some well-known mega-cap multinationals such as Toyota Motor and Royal Dutch Shell to some large-cap global disruptors such as Sea Ltd and Shopify.

It’s got all the big names and more--but only those that are based outside the US. You can find all the largest US stocks on our original Hall of Famers list.

The beauty of these scans is really in their simplicity.

We take the largest names each week and then apply technical filters in a way that the strongest stocks with the most momentum rise to the top.

Based on the market environment, we can also flip the scan on its head and filter for weakness.

Let’s dive in and take a look at some of the most important stocks from around the world.

Here’s this week’s list:

...

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Investors hate commodities – especially energy. 

I don’t blame them. 

Most energy stocks and commodities have failed to provide the best opportunities for the average market participant.

In fact, they’ve been an absolute dumpster fire compared to high-flying tech names for almost a decade. 

But everything changed following the 2020 sell-off.

Commodities flipped the script, outperforming bonds and stocks. Long-forgotten energy names worked their way back in the conversation as the energy sector taught a masterclass in relative strength.

This story isn’t finished – not yet!

One glance at the market’s year-to-date performance reveals an explosive tech rally that’s managed to erase the past two years from our collective memory.

That’s why I think it’s more important than ever to reiterate why I still like commodities in the back half of the year, specifically...

From the Desk of Kimmy Sokoloff

It was a very mixed tape overall today.

The $STLD short I previewed in the Morning Briefing worked out nicely.

From the Desk of Kimmy Sokoloff

It was a very mixed tape overall today.

The $STLD short I previewed in the Morning Briefing worked out nicely.

Here are today’s trades:

We've adjusted a position in the Paid-to-Play portfolio today:

Today’s Hot Corner is a short one.

Point72 Asset Management filed a 13G for Chewy $CHWY revealing an initial stake of 5.80%.

From the Desk of Kimmy Sokoloff

We're seeing a slight bounce this morning after yesterday's sell-off.

It's monthly options expiration today, so things could get volatile.

From the Desk of Kimmy Sokoloff

We’re seeing a slight bounce this morning after yesterday’s sell-off.

It’s monthly options expiration today, so things could get volatile.

From the Desk of Kimmy Sokoloff

It was tough sledding for tech names, yesterday and today.

Time will tell if this pull-in will be bigger than previous ones.