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All Star Options

[Options Premium] A Sideways Industrial Track

May 5, 2023

Options premiums have risen a little bit in recent days due to the fed, earnings, government data, and trader indecision, and [insert your favorite scary story].

Whatever the reason, this feels like a good time and opportunity to add some delta-neutral positions to my portfolio.

So let's get right to it.

Insiders Are Still Running for Bank Shares

May 5, 2023

The insider “run” on regional bank shares continues, with Form 4s from nine more directors and executives from boardrooms and C-suites in that troubled sector leading today’s Hot List:

  • Stellar Bancorp Inc $STEL
  • NBT Bancorp Inc $NBTB
  • Byline Bancorp $BY
  • KeyCorp $KEY
  • Texas Capital Bancshares $TCBI
  • Synovus Financial Corp $SNV
  • German American Bancorp $GABC
  • Cullen/Frost Bankers $CFR
  • TFS Financial Corporation $TFSL
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Will Interest Rates Follow the Bank Breakdown?

May 4, 2023

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Fed Chair Jerome Powell has spoken…

And not much has changed. Rates churn sideways as bonds carve out tradeable lows

The market is simply playing a new verse of the same old song.

But the tempo picks up as another antagonist enters the scene – regional banks!

Banks are the market’s weakest link, especially the smaller regional banks. They simply can’t stop falling.

To be clear: This isn’t about possible contagion risks or the next leg lower in the S&P 500. I’m more interested in the implications for interest rates.

The banking sector has captured every investor’s full attention. And regional banks have hinted at underlying problems with the rising rate environment for more than a year.

Check out the dual-pane chart of the Regional Bank ETF $KRE versus the REITs ETF $IYR ratio and the US 10-year yield $TNX:

...

The Most Impressive Newbie Trader I've Ever Met

May 4, 2023

You might have seen some of my tweets about an impressive trader I met earlier this week. I felt the encounter was too good to keep to myself – so here’s the full story…

I had a truly profound experience at the traders meetup I hosted in Denver on Tuesday night, where I met a new trader who completely blew me away.

Despite only having about a year of experience trading real money, this young man in his early 30s had a depth of knowledge and understanding that was truly remarkable. He carried with him a notebook filled with detailed market observations, trading strategies, post-mortems on trades, and more. No detail was left unnoticed, and his passion for trading was evident in everything he said.

What was even more impressive was his humility. He was incredibly smart, but he didn't flaunt his intelligence or try to impress anyone with his knowledge. Instead, he was genuinely curious about trading and had a...

Your Tiny Banks Don't Matter

May 4, 2023

Another day goes by and another bank that doesn't matter disappears.

This is a big deal.

In theory, investors should care about a handful of these regional banks no longer in existence.

But they don't.

In theory, there should be systemic implications to all of this, and the selling in little regional banks should spill into other, more important, parts of the market.

But it hasn't.

In theory, the inverted yield curve should precede a recession and all the money printing should ultimately cause a collapse.

But it hasn't.

And that's my point here.

At what point does anyone care?

I'm waiting for it myself.

...
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The Short Report (05-03-2023)

May 3, 2023

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

When investing in the stock market, we always want to approach it as "a market of stocks."

Regardless of the environment, there are always stocks showing leadership and trending higher.

We may have to look harder to identify them depending on current market conditions. But there are always stocks that are going up.

The same can be said for weak stocks. Regardless of the environment, there are always stocks that are going down, too. 

We already have multiple scans focusing on stocks making all-time highs, such as Hall of Famers, Minor Leaguers, and the 2 to 100 Club.

We filter these universes for stocks that are exhibiting the best momentum and relative strength characteristics. 

Clearly, we spend a lot of time identifying and writing about leading stocks every week, via multiple reports.

Now, we're also highlighting lagging stocks on a recurring basis.

Welcome to the Short Report.

We...

[Options] Positioning for $GOOG to Play Catchup

May 3, 2023

[10/19/23 Update: moved stop to 125]

If stock markets are about to recover and start another leg higher back towards all-time highs, I have a hard time imagining a scenario where Google (Alphabet) $GOOG doesn't at least retake last summer's highs north of $123 per share.

Call me crazy, but that's where my head's at.

Take a look at the coil that $GOOGL is working through right now:

The $GOOGL and $GOOG charts look the same. It's confusing and annoying that they have two shares classes (the "L" shares come with voting rights, the others do not).

The GOOG options have more open interest and volume, so that's where we will put on our trade.

The Good, The Bad & The Ugly

May 3, 2023

These tiny banks have been in trouble for quite some time.

That we know.

The question has been more about whether or not the selling spills into other parts of the market.

So far it has not.

The spikes in volatility in the bond market, for example, have only resulted in volatility in these little banks.

We have not seen it spill into other asset classes, and certainly not in the majority of stocks.

Remember, the S&P500 and Nasdaq100 just closed the month of April at the highest levels in a year.

Where's the volatility?

...

Bank Execs Back Up the Trucks

May 3, 2023

The big story on today's list is that executives from some of the most severely damaged banks are still filing Form 4s.

Here's yesterday's list:

  • Texas Capital Bancshares $TCBI
  • Zions Bancorporation, National Association $ZION
  • Simmons First National Corporation $SFNC
  • Ameris Bancorp $ABCB
  • Prosperity Bancshares $PB
  • FB Financial Corporation $FBK
  • Bank of Hawaii Corporation $BOH
  • Farmers National Banc Corp $FMNB
  • Old National Bancorp $ONB
  • First Financial Bankshares $FFIN

I Wish I Could Have Been Me Sooner

May 2, 2023

I imagine it’s not uncommon for people to realize sooner or later that the person they thought they were is not at all who they really are. Perhaps not even close.

Are you being yourself?

Think hard about this. And be careful. Because your conclusion might have important ramifications beyond your day-to-day daydreaming through life. It will also likely have significant impacts on who you are as a trader and how you approach your relationship with risk – even your courtship of success (or lack thereof).

Everyone’s path to personal discovery will have its own speed limit, hills and valleys, and complements of sharp turns and extreme weather conditions.

The visibility isn’t always clear. For me, the wiper-fluid that cleaned my windows and sharpened my...