She was always the one.

All along it was the US dollar that was the best indicator.

Old reliable.

So why should we abandon it now?

Look at the US Dollar Index overlaid with the short ETF for the S&P500.

In other words, when the blue line goes up, that means stock market shorts are making money (along with rising dollars). But when the blue line falls, that means the shorts are losing and people who own stocks are the ones making money (with dollars falling):

It's the weekly commodity edition of What the FICC?

The wheat complex looks interesting at current levels, offering trading opportunities in either direction.

Check it out!

This is the weekly post that aggregates all the charts we put together throughout the week and organizes them all into one, easy to flip through deck.

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Last week I covered the soybean complex and corn.

As promised, I’ll cover the wheat complex this week, rounding out our coverage of the grain markets.

Let’s dive in!

Before we start, check out this breakdown of the different types of wheat varieties. I love to nerd out on this stuff – anything that involves maps, I’m hooked!

Today I’ll cover the most actively traded US contracts; Chicago Soft Red Winter Wheat (SRW), Kansas City Hard Red Winter Wheat (HRW), and Minneapolis Hard Red Spring Wheat (HRS).

The first two contracts trade on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT), with soft red wheat first trading on the CBOT in 1877. Minneapolis spring wheat trades on the Minneapolis Grain Exchange (MGEX).

These different types of wheat derive their names from their growing regions, where they initially come to market, and even their protein levels (hard = higher protein, soft = lower protein).

There’s plenty of information on the...

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza and Alfonso Depablos @AlfCharts

Our International Hall of Famers list is composed of the 100 largest US-listed international stocks, or ADRs.

We’ve also sprinkled in some of the largest ADRs from countries that did not make the market cap cut. 

These stocks range from some well-known mega-cap multinationals such as Toyota Motor and Royal Dutch Shell to some large-cap global disruptors such as Sea Ltd and Shopify.

It’s got all the big names and more--but only those that are based outside the US. You can find all the largest US stocks on our original Hall of Famers list.

The beauty of these scans is really in their simplicity.

We take the largest names each week and then apply technical filters in a way that the strongest stocks with the most momentum rise to the top.

Based on the market environment, we can also flip the scan on its head and filter for weakness.

Let’s dive in and take a look at some of the most important stocks from around the world.

Here’s this week’s list:

...

From the Desk of Willie Delwiche.

Stocks rallied heading into the weekend, with the S&P 500 finishing up 1.6% for the day. Friday’s 1%+ move ended four consecutive days of relative quiet, the longest stretch without a 1% swing (on a closing basis) since a seven day streak in mid-November. We still have had just one week over the past year that did not experience a single 1% swing in the S&P 500.

Why It Matters: Bull markets are characterized by persistent strength, steady progress, and more often, relatively few big swings. That was the case coming off of the COVID lows. 2020 and 2021 saw multiple weeks without a single 1% daily move in the S&P 500. 2022 brought plenty of noise and plenty of volatility. That has persisted as we have moved into 2023. While the week finished on an upbeat note, the pattern of behavior is little changed. Just a month ago we experienced the first full week of 1% swings since March 2020.

From the Desk of Kimmy Sokoloff

That was a nice Friday with green on the screen!!

Happy to see the follow through from the bounce yesterday afternoon.

There's a trade perking up from the most recent Hall of Famers report that is ready for us to get involved. We're going to do it via a debit option spread with defined risk and a chart level that keeps risk manageable.

We had a resting GTC order filled at our profit target in the Paid-to-Play portfolio today:

The next new position in our Paid-to-Play portfolio is:

The largest insider buy on today's list comes in a Form 4 filing by NextEra Energy $NEE director Kirk S. Hachigian.

Hachigian revealed an NEE purchase worth $700,000.

From the Desk of Kimmy Sokoloff

The market is indicating higher this morning.

Now let's see if we can have a follow-through day from yesterday.

We retired our "Five Bull Market Barometers" in 2020 to make room for a new weekly post that's focused on the three most important charts for the week ahead.

This is that post, so let's jump into this week's edition.

The year we're looking at is the Construction sector.

It's the weekly bond edition of What the FICC?

Developed European benchmark interest rates are posting fresh highs. Those potential failed breakouts back in early January have quickly turned into nothing more than false or premature moves.

And while US yields continue to climb, their recent rise pales compared to their European counterparts.

Check it out!

From the Desk of Ian Culley 

Markets churn sideways, plagued with indecision. But one thing is certain…

The global rising rate environment remains intact.

Developed European benchmark interest rates are posting fresh highs. Those potential failed breakouts back in early January have quickly turned into nothing more than false or premature moves.

And while US yields continue to climb, their recent rise pales compared to their European counterparts.

What does that imply for domestic rates in the coming weeks and months?

For the past year and a half, we have turned to developed European yields for insight into the direction of domestic interest rates. 

The analysis proved insightful as the rising rate environment has been global in scope. Europe has given a nice heads-up regarding the direction of yields stateside. And the market continues to support this approach. 

Check out the German 10-year yield:

...

From the Desk of Kimmy Sokoloff

This morning was very choppy, and then the market straightened itself out.

I mentioned in the live trading room that we're really due for a bounce.

And then, late in the afternoon, we got it.

This is the video recording of the March 2nd, 2023, Weekly Town Hall w/ Willie Delwiche.

03/02/23 2:00 PM ET

We've adjusted a position in the Paid-to-Play portfolio today:

The largest insider buy on today's list comes in a Form 4 filing by Mark P. Vergnano, a director of Waters Corporation $WAT.

Vergnano reported a purchase worth $997,927.