The stage is set for an epic rally. The catalysts are in place.

Yet messy conditions persist as we await ignition and blast off.

Regardless, we can use the current environment to find the most buoyant and promising names.

Check it out...

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

With the dollar beginning to rise, gold and silver are coming under some selling pressure.

Nevertheless, these shiny rocks and their related mining stocks are hanging tough.

Instead of getting bent out of shape, I plan on using the recent bout of selling as an opportunity.

When markets come under pressure, it’s time to identify the most resilient names. 

Why? 

The strongest stocks will likely lead the next leg higher.

Some call it the “beachball” effect. These names tend to rip higher after sellers fail to submerge these stocks.

And I have a potential beachball of a gold mining stock I want to share with you today…

From the Desk of Kimmy Sokoloff

The $SPX was down more than 1.5% today, but it was a slow and steady grind lower.

I didn't trade much today, as I want to wait for the right setup.

When I last wrote to you, I was mired in a spiral of frustration as I grappled with understanding what went wrong with one of my strategies, what I missed that opened the door to a larger-than-expected loss, and how to move forward.

I’m happy to report that I’ve come out the other side.

The only way out is through.

That’s always been true for me, at least.

My wife can attest: up until yesterday, for a week I’d been walking around like a grumpy zombie, lost in repetitive thought, running mind simulations of hundreds of scenarios and if/then situations. 99% of the ideas were just simple regurgitations of things I tried and failed at in the past. It takes tremendous effort for me to remind myself: been there, done that.

I often waste significant time and energy rehashing old tricks I’ve employed in the past...

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

Dynamic Portfolio Update: Gold miners (GDX) are breaking down on a relative basis so we are selling the exposure we have there in the Tactical Opportunity Portfolio and re-deploying that capital to areas that continue to show leadership.

Coming into this week, we’ve seen more new highs than new lows every day so far this year. Improved breadth helped fuel a higher high for the S&P 500. But with the index dropping back into its December range and new highs struggling to expand, the going, for now, is getting rough.

More Context: If our perspective just goes back to the late-September/early-October lows, the pattern on the S&P 500 is an encouraging higher low followed by a higher high accompanied by improving breadth. If we push back a little further, we still get breadth improvement but the S&P 500 pattern is more ambiguous. This month’s higher high could be an eerie inverse of last fall’s lower low (which quickly reversed), though we haven’t seen enough deterioration to this point to argue for more defensive tactical positioning. So long as the S&P 500 is above the June lows and below the August highs, acknowledging that sideways is a direction would not be inconsistent with the cyclical weight of the evidence that is in...

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

With the dollar beginning to rise, gold and silver are coming under some selling pressure.

Nevertheless, these shiny rocks and their related mining stocks are hanging tough.

Instead of getting bent out of shape, I plan on using the recent bout of selling as an opportunity.

When markets come under pressure, it’s time to identify the most resilient names. 

Why? 

The strongest stocks will likely lead the next leg higher.

Some call it the “beachball” effect. These names tend to rip higher after sellers fail to submerge these stocks.

And I have a potential beachball of a gold mining stock I want to share with you today…

First, it’s a range-bound mess for gold, silver, and platinum futures.

Here’s a look at an equal-weight index of those three metals:

The index currently is turning lower, retesting the lower bounds of a multi-year range.

As long as it remains within “the box,” I have to give precious metals the benefit of the doubt.

And as long as it remains messy, I want to continue to lean on the strongest names out there – on absolute and...

We've adjusted a position in the Paid-to-Play portfolio today:

We're seeing more breakouts as the weeks go by.

And we're not talking about the kind of random pumps-and-dumps that happened throughout last year.

It's quite the opposite, actually.

Many coins have gone absolutely nowhere for quarters and are only now beginning to test the upper bounds of these long-term ranges.

Although this period has been incredibly lackluster in the number of directional trade ideas, the flipside is that many coins have had ample time to carve out long-term bases.

Like we always argue around here, we're better served by keeping it simple.

If this is truly the beginning stage of a new crypto bull market, buying resolutions out of these basing patterns will be a great strategy for the months and quarters ahead.

The largest insider transaction on today’s list was reported in a Form 4 filing by the CEO and President of PayPal Holdings $PYPL, Dan Schulman.

Schulman reported a purchase worth roughly $1.9 million.

From the Desk of Kimmy Sokoloff

We're seeing a decent gap down into the $SPX 4,050 zone. If we break this, we can see 4,020.

We have support on $SPY at 402.65.

The broadest measure of European equities just hit new 52-week highs last week.

As you can see here, Europe went nowhere for 20 years, mostly due to its lack of exposure to high growth stocks like the United States.

And now that those growth stocks have been out of favor, and it's the more Industrial and cyclical stocks leading the way this bull market, Europe is the global leader once again.

It's the U.S. that's the laggard.

Here's the Euro STOXX 600 hitting new 52-week highs and coming out of a multi-decade base:

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Our Top 10 Charts Report was just published.

In this weekly note, we highlight 10 of the most important charts or themes we’re currently seeing in asset classes around the world.

Bulls Dance with France

Last week, France's CAC 40 Index became one of the first global indices to reach record highs. The fact that more and more countries are trending to the upside speaks to broadening participation overseas.

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Check out this week's Momentum Report, our weekly summation of all the major indexes at a Macro, International, Sector, and Industry Group level.

By analyzing the short-term data in these reports, we get a more tactical view of the current state of markets. This information then helps us put near-term developments into the big picture context and provides insights regarding the structural trends at play.

Let's jump right into it with some of the major takeaways from this week's report:

* ASC Plus Members can access the Momentum Report by clicking the link at the bottom of this post.

Macro Universe:

• This week, our macro universe was negative, with 62% of our list closing lower with a median return of -0.19%.
• Copper $HG was the winner, closing with a 2.29% gain.
• The biggest loser was Lumber $LB, with a weekly loss of -8.94%.
• There was no change in the percentage of assets on our list within 5% of their 52-week highs – currently at 13%.
• 9% of our macro list made fresh 4-week highs.
• Meanwhile, 40% of...

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @sstrazza and Alfonso Depablos @Alfcharts

This is one of our favorite bottom-up scans: Follow the Flow.

In this note, we simply create a universe of stocks that experienced the most unusual options activity — either bullish or bearish, but not both.

We utilize options experts, both internally and through our partnership with The TradeXchange. Then, we dig through the level 2 details and do all the work upfront for our clients.

Our goal is to isolate only those options market splashes that represent levered and high-conviction, directional bets.

We also weed out hedging activity and ensure there are no offsetting trades that either neutralize or cap the risk on these unusual options trades.

What remains is a list of stocks that large financial institutions are putting big money behind.

And they’re doing so for one reason only: because they think...

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza.

Welcome back to Under the Hood, where we'll cover all the action for the week ended February 17, 2023. This report is published bi-weekly and rotated with The Minor Leaguers.

What we do here is analyze the most popular stocks during the week and find opportunities to either join in and ride these momentum names higher, or fade the crowd and bet against them.

We use a variety of sources to generate the list of most popular names.

There are so many new data sources available that all we need to do is organize and curate them in a way that shows us exactly what we want: a list of stocks that are seeing an unusual increase in investor interest.

Click here for a behind-the-scenes look at our process.

Whether we’re measuring increasing interest based on large institutional purchases, unusual options activity, or...

Last week, we saw bulls step in to defend critical short-term levels of interest.

Bitcoin closed the week up 11.50%, while Ethereum posted an 11% gain. With much of this historically choppy month behind us, these markets are pushing to the upper bounds of their long-term ranges.

Further, the S&P is coiling right beneath resistance near 4,100.

This is the weekly post that aggregates all the charts we put together throughout the week and organizes them all into one, easy to flip through deck.

In bull markets you have leadership groups.

That's just a simple fact that you see in every cycle.

During this bull market in particular, the one that turned 8-months old earlier this week, Industrials have been a real leader.

The Industrials Sector Index Fund $XLI is the best performing sector of them all since the June lows.

Now take a look at Industrials on an equally-weighted basis relative to the S&P500 equally-weighted.

From a broader perspective, Industrials are breaking out to new 14-year highs relative to the rest of the market:

It's the weekly commodity edition of What the FICC?

If you missed last month's breakout in Sugar, have no fear: It's offering us another opportunity to get long.…

Check it out!

These are the registration details for our Live Mid-month Conference Call for Premium Members of All Star Charts.

Our Live Call will be held on Tuesday February 21st at 6PM ET. As always, if you cannot make the call live, the video and slides will be archived and published here along with every other live call since 2015.

Here are the details for Tuesday night:

From the Desk of Kimmy Sokoloff

That was some sloppy action today, and the market is showing weakness.

Let's see if we level out next week.

Support on $SPY is 405, then 402.35. Resistance is at 408.