From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza and Alfonso Depablos @AlfCharts
Our International Hall of Famers list is composed of the 100 largest US-listed international stocks, or ADRs.
We’ve also sprinkled in some of the largest ADRs from countries that did not make the market cap cut.
These stocks range from some well-known mega-cap multinationals such as Toyota Motor and Royal Dutch Shell to some large-cap global disruptors such as Sea Ltd and Shopify.
It’s got all the big names and more--but only those that are based outside the US. You can find all the largest US stocks on our original Hall of Famers list.
The beauty of these scans is really in their simplicity.
We take the largest names each week and then apply technical filters in a way that the strongest stocks with the most momentum rise to the top.
Based on the market environment, we can also flip the scan on its head and filter for weakness.
Let’s dive in and take a look at some of the most important stocks from around the world.
I missed that move -- not for lack of initiative, more like access issues.
If you missed it, too, have no fear: Sugar is offering us another opportunity to get long.…
Check out the weekly chart:
Sugar futures broke out of a multi-year base in early 2021, climbing more than 30% over the following eight months. Since then it's consolidated within a tight range.
I can’t resist taking a shot at a continuation pattern following a big...
Prior to this week, we had seen just one day in the past three months with less than 70% of world markets above their 50-day averages. We’ve now had two days in a row with this indicator of global market strength in the yellow zone.
Why It Matters: The strongest markets have the broadest participation and historically the S&P 500 hasn’t run into much trouble as long as at least 70% of world markets are above their 50-day averages. Risks intensify when this drops below 40%. We discussed this (and other indicators of market stress) in our weekly Townhall as well as the Takeaways summary.
The Bottom Line is this: It’s not a red flag yet, but rally risks increase if fewer world markets are above their 50-day average and the dollar finding a bid after selling off in Q4 could challenge the strength we’ve seen around the world in recent months. ...
Losing money is part of winning over the long run.
There is no winning without losing. Sounds crazy, but traders know this to be true.
We’ve all heard that losses are lessons. They are expensive lessons, but often the most valuable. Nothing valuable comes cheaply.
During the triage phase of dissecting what went wrong, we often have “a-ha!” moments that lead to new rules and new promises, and renewed confidence. “Next time,” we tell ourselves, “the outcome will be drastically different!”
We held our February Monthly Strategy Session last week. Premium Members can access and rewatch it here.
Non-members can get a quick recap of the call simply by reading this post each month.
By focusing on long-term, monthly charts, the idea is to take a step back and put things into the context of their structural trends. This is easily one of our most valuable exercises as it forces us to put aside the day-to-day noise and simply examine markets from a “big-picture” point of view.
With that as our backdrop, let’s dive right in and discuss three of the most important charts and/or themes from this month’s call.
We retired our "Five Bull Market Barometers" in 2020 to make room for a new weekly post that's focused on the three most important charts for the week ahead.
This is that post, so let's jump into this week's edition.
Honestly, I was only half serious. I pay attention to the Fed and CPI data – mainly to stay aware of the increased volatility accompanying important release dates.
Check out the overlay chart of the Metals and Mining ETF $XME and the TIPs vs. US Treasuries ratio $TIP / $IEF:
These two charts move tick for tick at first glance. And a closer look at the lower pane reveals an overwhelmingly positive correlation over the trailing 126 trading days. This is why we focus on XME.
Different market environments are conducive to certain scans and less so to others.
Coming off this perilous winter, strategies identifying short opportunities have been greatly rewarded. And, throughout the pandemic, it was the complete opposite.
Like we said in yesterday's note, half the battle is in understanding how to directionally position in the underlying trend. The simple fact of that matter is that many have been caught offside betting against names in substantial drawdowns.
Names like Coinbase, Marathon Digital, and, most recently, Silvergate have all sported notable short interest coming off this bear market.
Identifying this skew, we reintroduced our Freshly Squeezed scan. The idea is rather intuitive; we're simply looking for stocks that people are betting against. When a stock is heavily shorted, we know there are incremental buyers waiting in the wings.
As Strazza said in the latest Freshly Squeezed report,
We love this as new buyers are the one true catalyst for higher prices. When shorts are proven wrong, they have to buy their shares back to close out their...