From the Desk of Kimmy Sokoloff

Happy Valentine's Day!

We have the CPI print at 8:30 a.m. ET, and the futures are full speed ahead as I write this.

The largest insider buy on today’s list comes in a Form 4 filing by Longitude Capital’s Juliet Tammenoms Bakker.

Tammenoms-Bakker reported a purchase of $6 million in RxSight, Inc $RXST, where she serves as a director.

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Welcome to our latest Minor Leaguers report.

We've had some great trades come out of this small-cap-focused column since we launched it back in 2020 and started rotating it with our flagship bottom-up scan, Under the Hood.

For the first year or so, we focused only on Russell 2000 stocks with a market cap between $1 and $2B.

That was fun, but we wanted to branch out a bit and allow some new stocks to find their way onto our list.

We expanded our universe to include some mid-caps.

To make the cut for our Minor Leaguers list, a company must have a market cap between $1 and $4B.

And it doesn't have to be a Russell component — it can be any US-listed equity. With participation expanding around the globe, we want all those ADRs in our universe.

The same price and liquidity filters are applied. Then, as always, we sort by proximity to...

It's the weekly Gold Rush!

This week Strazza and I dig into the COT profile for Gold and Silver, revealing the sentiment behind the smart money.

Check it out...

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

What will ignite a precious metal rally to new all-time highs?

We often discuss the dollar and real yields as critical catalysts for a sustained uptrend for gold and silver. It’s simple: These shiny rocks will struggle if the dollar and rates continue to rise. 

But there’s more.

I want to share another crucial piece of the puzzle – commercial positioning.

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Our Top 10 Charts Report was just published.

In this weekly note, we highlight 10 of the most important charts or themes we’re currently seeing in asset classes around the world.

The 30yr Retests Prior Cycle Highs

The US 30yr yield refuses to break below its prior cycle highs. This is a logical level for yields to find support and churn sideways which could mean more messy action for long-duration assets such as bonds and growth stocks.

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Check out this week's Momentum Report, our weekly summation of all the major indexes at a Macro, International, Sector, and Industry Group level.

By analyzing the short-term data in these reports, we get a more tactical view of the current state of markets. This information then helps us put near-term developments into the big picture context and provides insights regarding the structural trends at play.

Let's jump right into it with some of the major takeaways from this week's report:

* ASC Plus Members can access the Momentum Report by clicking the link at the bottom of this post.

Macro Universe:

• This week, our macro universe was negative, with 85% of our list closing lower with a median return of -1.05%.
• The Volatility Index $VIX was the winner, closing with a 12.00% gain.
• The biggest loser was Lumber $LB, with a weekly loss of -16.05%.
• There was a 4% drop in the percentage of assets on our list within 5% of their 52-week highs – currently at 13%.
• 9% of our macro list made fresh 4-week highs.
• ...

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @sstrazza and Alfonso Depablos @Alfcharts

This is one of our favorite bottom-up scans: Follow the Flow.

In this note, we simply create a universe of stocks that experienced the most unusual options activity — either bullish or bearish, but not both.

We utilize options experts, both internally and through our partnership with The TradeXchange. Then, we dig through the level 2 details and do all the work upfront for our clients.

Our goal is to isolate only those options market splashes that represent levered and high-conviction, directional bets.

We also weed out hedging activity and ensure there are no offsetting trades that either neutralize or cap the risk on these unusual options trades.

What remains is a list of stocks that large financial institutions are putting big money behind.

And they’re doing so for one reason only: because they think...

From the Desk of Kimmy Sokoloff

$SPY broke above its eight-day moving average and trended higher pretty much all day.

It feels like the market wants to head higher tomorrow. But that could change on a dime with the CPI report.

This is the video recording of today's LIVE Short Squeeze Video Special.

We walk through every single one of our favorite most shorted stocks, including entry points and targets.

These are the exact names we want to buy in THIS particular market environment.

It's a can't miss video:

The Value Line Geometric Index peeked above its August high but it continues to struggle with sustaining strength. We don’t have evidence at this point of that being a meaningful peak but for now this proxy for the performance of the median US stock is trodding across well-traveled ground.

More Context: The Value Line Geometric index has a penchant for living between round numbers. In the years prior to COVID, it moved up from 500 to 600 and back down to 500. During 2020, it dropped to 300 before recovering and settling in beneath 500. A break above that level led to a quick test of 600, Further strength carried it to 700 in late 2021. It paused at 600 before spending most of last year moving back and forth between 500 and 600. After a strong start to the year for stocks, some near-term consolidation (especially in the US) would not be surprising. If recent patterns hold, that could mean the Value Line Geometric Index moving back toward 500. If that scenario is going to play out, we are likely to see more...

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

What will ignite a precious metal rally to new all-time highs?

We often discuss the dollar and real yields as critical catalysts for a sustained uptrend for gold and silver. It’s simple: These shiny rocks will struggle if the dollar and rates continue to rise. 

But there’s more.

I want to share another crucial piece of the puzzle – commercial positioning.

We analyze the Commitment of Traders (COT) report generated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), which updates the positions of the largest speculators and commercial hedgers weekly.

We publish a table with this data in our commodities post every Friday.

Our focus lies solely on the commercial hedgers for one reason – they represent the largest short sellers for any given market. By monitoring these players, we discern the attitudes of the strongest hands.

Think of the COT as a sentiment gauge.

Commercial hedgers reached extreme levels in gold last fall, coinciding with significant troughs in price in 2016 and 2018:

Strong hands move markets. And the strongest hands were...

JC had a great post this weekend about our favorite Magazine Cover Indicator violator -- The Economist. Go give it a read and then come on back here.

Are you caught up? Good.

You read what JC said to do. Let's do it.

We began last week arguing the case for short-term patience while emphasizing that the primary trends have shifted higher.

As we move into the middle of February, seasonality trends suggest a choppy couple of weeks ahead.

At the same time, momentum in the US dollar has accumulated in recent days, as we observe some mild selling pressure in crypto markets. With the CPI release on Tuesday, it's reasonable to expect this volatility to continue.

This comes as Bitcoin retraces following its first retest of the August 2022 highs.

The next new position in our Paid-to-Play portfolio is:

Cathie Wood’s ARK Investment Management is on our list today, as it just filed amended 13Gs for Roku Inc $ROKU and Cerus Corporation $CERS.

The asset manager reported a small increase in its ownership of ROKU, from 9.94% to 10.12%.

For its CERS position,  it revealed a stake of 10.11%, up from the 8.94% previously reported.

From the Desk of Kimmy Sokoloff

For today, we'll watch to see how $SPY handles the eight-day moving average 409.

I think tomorrow's CPI print will set the stage for the remainder of the month.

Did you see what the haters over at The Economist published last week?

Most of you have been around for a while so you already know.

But if you're new here to Allstarcharts, let's just say we do very well consistently taking the other side of this publication.

Few contrarian indicators are as reliable as The Economist:

It's the weekly commodity edition of What the FICC?

I want to share with you a trade idea I wouldn’t have considered a year ago...

Check it out!

Remember last year when everyone was bearish?

And I mean everyone!

It was funny, there I was telling people it was a new bull market, because we actually do the work around here, but investors weren't buying it.

In fact, we saw 44 consecutive weeks of more bears than bulls among individual investors. This was an even longer streak than we saw during the Financial crisis. Longer than COVID.

People were really angry.

You can see the AAII Bulls and Bears, along with their consecutive streaks plotted below:

This is the weekly post that aggregates all the charts we put together throughout the week and organizes them all into one, easy to flip through deck.

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza and Alfonso Depablos @AlfCharts

Our Hall of Famers list is composed of the 150 largest US-based stocks.

These stocks range from the mega-cap growth behemoths like Apple and Microsoft – with market caps in excess of $2T – to some of the new-age large-cap disruptors such as Moderna, Square, and Snap.

It has all the big names and more.

It doesn’t include ADRs or any stock not domiciled in the US. But don’t worry; we developed a separate universe for that which you can check out here.

The Hall of Famers is simple.

We take our list of 150 names and then apply our technical filters so the strongest stocks with the most momentum rise to the top.

Let’s dive right in and check out what these big boys are up to.

Here’s this week’s list:

Click table to enlarge view

We filter out any laggards that are down -5% or more relative to the S&P 500 over the trailing...