From the Desk of Kimmy Sokoloff

Happy Friday!

Well, the tech heavyweights that reported last night had a bumpy evening.

Question is, will $AMZN, $GOOGL, and $AAPL gap and go lower or reverse and bounce?

From the Desk of Ian Culley

The FOMC handed down the expected 25 basis point rate hike yesterday. Yet markets didn’t react until Fed Chair Jerome Powell spoke 30 minutes later.

That's right, he dropped the D-word – “disinflation.”

To be clear, I don’t care what he said. Instead of hanging on the Fed Chair's words, I prefer to focus on the markets. I find it more enjoyable.

But, boy, did markets respond!

The most striking aspect of yesterday’s reaction was highlighted by the relative strength of growth stocks.

Check out the overlay chart of the US T-Bond ETF $TLT and the ARK Innovation ETF $ARKK:  These charts tend to move tick-for-tick, as long-duration assets benefit from the same market environment.

It doesn’t matter that one ETF holds the largest tech names across the market while the other a basket of long-term US Treasury bonds. 

Whatever Powell said in addition to “disinflationary,” investors heard...

If you're short Peloton with the price above those former highs from the back half of last year, I think you're insane.

The squeeze is on here folks.

At last glance we saw 15% of the float was still short.

Look at this beautiful bottom and breakout:

From the Desk of Kimmy Sokoloff

Markets continued higher today...

And then, around 2:00 p.m. ET, the indices took a much-needed breather.

This is the video recording of the February 2nd, 2023, Weekly Town Hall w/ Willie Delwiche.

2/2/23 2:00 PM ET

Excluding price action itself, relative strength has to be the most underappreciated indicator.

It's impossible to outperform if you own assets exhibiting relative weakness.

If a stock is underperforming, there's a reason why. It's not until months after the fact do investors discover the "fundamental" drivers anchoring that stock.

The same can be said for when a stock is outperforming.

Look at it like holding a beach ball underwater. You can feel the pressure on your arms, and when that pressure is released, the ball explodes into the air.

Think about the selling pressure in the market: When the selling pressure alleviates, the stocks showing relative strength tend to be the first ones that shoot higher.

These principles are universal across every market.

We've adjusted a position in the Paid-to-Play portfolio today:

The largest insider buy on today's list is a Form 4 filing by Steve Miron,  director at Charter Communications $CHTR.

Miron revealed the purchase of $960,875 worth of CHTR shares.

From the Desk of Kimmy Sokoloff

For some time now, I've said $SPY can touch 410. We're here now.

If we continue to hold on and slightly contract, then SPY can see 421.

We retired our "Five Bull Market Barometers" in 2020 to make room for a new weekly post that's focused on the three most important charts for the week ahead.

This is that post, so let's jump into this week's edition.

This week we're looking into Capital Goods sector stocks.

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Welcome to the 2 to 100 Club.

As many of you know, something we've been working on internally is using various bottom-up tools and scans to complement our top-down approach. It's really been working for us!

One way we're doing this is by identifying the strongest growth stocks as they climb the market-cap ladder from small- to mid- to large- and, ultimately, to mega-cap status (over $200B).

Once they graduate from small-cap to mid-cap status (over $2B), they come on our radar. Likewise, when they surpass the roughly $30B mark, they roll off our list.

But the scan doesn't just end there.

We only want to look at the strongest growth industries in the market, as that is typically where these potential 50-baggers come from.

Some of the best performers in recent decades – stocks like Priceline, Amazon, Netflix, Salesforce, and myriad others – would have been on this list at some point during their...

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza 

In case I haven't been obnoxious enough, we are in the early stages of a new bull market.

I cannot be more clear about this. I feel it in my bones.

Today, the Fed had their first meeting of the year, and did exactly what everyone thought they would do. The market flew straight into rally mode as soon as the press conference began. There were no surprises.

This is because, very much unlike 2022, the path of least resistance for risk assets is now higher.

We're seeing risk-on action characterize the tape on a regular basis.

Breakouts are sticking. The list of new highs is growing longer and longer. Meanwhile, new lows are almost non-existent, and the breakdowns from December have failed and followed through higher.

It's all bull market stuff.

Along the same lines, we're seeing more and more stocks offer bullish chart setups that we want to be buying. And we're entertaining all of them.

It's time to be aggressive on the long side.

Be sure to check out...

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Everyone wants to know where the dollar is headed next.

It’s great investors are showing interest in the dollar, while understanding the impact it has on risk assets at the moment. 

But I have no idea where the dollar is headed. No one does.

Regardless, I can still form a framework to help make the best logical guess despite an incomplete data set. That’s what we do at All Star Charts!

So let’s recap three points I’ve made regarding the dollar in recent months that I believe hold the greatest weight…

The Time and Place for a Bounce

Given strong seasonal tailwinds and a critical shelf of former highs acting as potential support, the likelihood of a dollar bounce last month seemed probable…

The US Dollar Index $DXY has enjoyed the best returns...

From the Desk of Kimmy Sokoloff

What a day... February started off with a bang!

I mentioned in the live trading room that if the market likes what Fed Chair Jerome Powell has to say we can see $SPY 410.

We sure did hit that level... and then some.

Every investor is different.

We have different time horizons, objectives, goals, and appetites for risk.

It's for this reason that the endeavor of trading is often a lonely one; you're forced into fine-tuning what works best for your needs.

What works for me isn't going to work for you.

This is self evidently true.

It seems to me that one of the overlooked elements of this discussion is the variability of human personality.

This is something I've been pondering as of late, so I thought I'd lay bare my potential fallacious thoughts to see if we can strive closer to some answers.

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

The January AAII asset allocation survey shows household equity exposure rising for the third month in a row and climbing to its highest level since May.    

Why It Matters: Despite last year’s stock market turmoil and claims of pessimism, investors did not abandon equities. After approaching a 20-year high in November 2021, stock exposure waned over the course of 2022 but never did drop below its long-term average. Historically, the best gains in the market come after investors become bearishly positioned (stock exposure down and cash exposure elevated). That is a pivot that has not taken place this cycle (not yet, at least). The under-owned and unloved asset classes remain bonds and cash (and commodities, which don’t even make it as a category in the AAII survey).

In this week’s Sentiment Report we take a closer look at the implications of this positioning data, how investors are responding to stock market strength this year and what valuations tell us about risk and...

This is the video recording of our February 1, 2023, Inside Scoop Weekly Strategy Session.

[9/7: updated stop to 56]

As promised during yesterday's The FLOW show, I'm following up on a possible trade idea we discussed.

However, after Strazza and I put our heads together with the rest of the Analyst team this morning, we're going to attack an opportunity in Schlumberger $SLB from a different angle -- one that can be rewarding regardless of which direction the stock takes.

The next new position in our Paid-to-Play portfolio is: