We had a resting GTC order filled at our profit target in the Paid-to-Play portfolio today:

A little pullback in stocks today has opened up the window for us to sell some options premium as a nice portfolio hedge for our predominantly long portfolio.

We don't need a long preamble here. The plan is simple: I'm going to enter a delta-neutral credit spread in an ETF that is currently atop my list of ETFs sorted by implied volatility.

2023 is on the cusp of producing as many days with new highs greater than new lows in its first month as 2022 produced over the course of the entire year. Yet there are hurdles to overcome to convincingly argue that this recent strength is sustainable.

More Context: From a macro data and Fed policy perspective, this week holds the promise to be pivotal. That is no less true from a price perspective. More stocks making new highs than new lows is bull market behavior. The S&P 500 not clearing its December high (in the context of still declining longer-term trends) is not. In addition to further trend improvement, renewed expansion in the number of stocks making new highs and continued recovery in our industry group trend indicator would be evidence of rally sustainability. Our equity models aren’t waiting for “what ifs” and while the S&P 500 is an option, it’s not the only one. Our equity positioning is increasingly outside of the US and away from large-cap growth stocks.             

In our ...

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Plenty of gold bugs have Krugerrands buried in their backyard or basement –  if not secured in a safety deposit box at their local bank.

It’s no wonder gold falls under the “end-of-the-world” category of assets.

Regardless, gold prices can also rise with risk assets.

I raise this point not only as an important reminder but because it’s pivotal to understanding our bullish thesis for precious metals.

It’s a metals story….

When I say Gold 5k, it’s in the same breath as $8 Copper. The structural uptrends for these metals are inseparable in my view, as both stem from a new commodity supercycle.

The overlay chart of Copper and Gold futures tells the story:

Both metals carved out big bases and resolved higher back in the early 2000s. Those base breakouts led to Copper tripling in price as Gold rose almost 500% during the preceding cycle. 

I believe a similar base-building process is taking place now. An upside resolution for one likely coincides with a breakout from the other.

That’s why I find the current strength from Copper, Tin, and other metals...

The next new position in our Paid-to-Play portfolio is:

As well as stocks all over the world have been doing over the past few months, the overhead supply in the major US Large-cap Indexes remains in place.

In other words, these large-cap, growth-heavy, market gauges still have work to do.

A couple of months ago we reiterated our more neutral positions in the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P500, wanting to focus more of our attention on individual stocks and sectors.

That tactical approach has worked out well.

But fast forward to today, and...

Another positive week -- add it to the growing tally!

This is the first time Bitcoin's been up for four consecutive weeks since August 2021. Similarly, Bitcoin's 14-day RSI eclipsed its highest level going back more than two years.

We have a name for this price action...

Momentum thrusts.

We see them all the time in the beginning stages of new trends.

There's no denying that this move has been impressive. In fact, we'd even argue that it represents a structural shift in this market.

But where do we go from here?

Let's dive into this week's letter.

The most significant insider buy on today's list is a Form 4 filing by Abdiel Capital Advisors.

The hedge fund reported a purchase of $4.8 million in Appian Corporation $APPN.

From the Desk of Kimmy Sokoloff

This week is very busy.

We've got tons of economic data, a Fed rate decision on Wednesday, and Big Tech earnings on tap.

By my work, everything started to improve for stocks after June 16th.

That was when the list of new 52-week lows peaked and stocks started the process of going up all the time, instead of going down all the time.

In bull markets, stocks go up. In bear markets they go down, not sure if you heard...

Anyway, these days I'm seeing a lot of investors pointing to October 13th as the market bottom, because that's when the S&P500 and some of the other indexes made their lows.

But by then, most stocks had already bottomed. It was only a few of those large-cap indexes left still falling.

That's why ...

What do bull markets look like?

Well obviously, more stocks are going up than going down.

More sectors are participating to the upside, while fewer are falling.

And you also see an expansion in breadth across the globe, with more and more countries joining in on the uptrends.

Those are bull markets.

And do you know what you also see?

High Beta stocks outperform Low Volatility. This is a consistent characteristic among the strongest uptrends.

How's the Bull Market treating you?

Does it feel as good for you as it does for me?

I've been watching really angry people fighting these uptrends in stocks over the past 6+ months and they are not happy.

Life is harder when you ignore price, in favor of such arbitrary things like the economy or corporate earnings.

What kind of serial killer puts that gossip ahead of the tape?

I want this to be a good reminder that we DO NOT EVER want to fight the tape.

Fight the fed all you want. Ignore the economic gossip coming out of the basic cable stations. All of that is perfectly acceptable behavior.

It's the tape that you cannot fight, if your goal is to make money.

This is the weekly post that aggregates all the charts we put together throughout the week and organizes them all into one, easy to flip through deck.

Remember in the first half of last year, it was only the Energy stocks that were in Uptrends.

You can use a simple 200 day moving average to point to and say, "OK price is above that so it's probably not a downtrend".

Then in October, we were talking about how Bear Markets are a choice, and one that investors didn't have to sit through if they didn't want to.

By that point, Healthcare was already being added to the list of Sector Indexes that were above their 200 day moving average.

So now entering Q4 you had Energy AND Healthcare.

By November, you then had 3 more added to the list of uptrends: ...

It's the weekly commodity edition of What the FICC?

I have to imagine Uranium stocks catch a bid if copper and gold are ripping higher.

Check it out!

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza and Alfonso Depablos @AlfCharts

Our Hall of Famers list is composed of the 150 largest US-based stocks.

These stocks range from the mega-cap growth behemoths like Apple and Microsoft – with market caps in excess of $2T – to some of the new-age large-cap disruptors such as Moderna, Square, and Snap.

It has all the big names and more.

It doesn’t include ADRs or any stock not domiciled in the US. But don’t worry; we developed a separate universe for that. Click here to check it out.

The Hall of Famers is simple.

We take our list of 150 names and then apply our technical filters so the strongest stocks with the most momentum rise to the top.

Let’s dive right in and check out what these big boys are up to.

Here’s this week’s list:

Click table to enlarge view

We filter out any laggards that are down -5% or more relative to the S&P 500 over the trailing month. 

Then...

From the Desk of Kimmy Sokoloff

That's four Fridays in a row the market has had a great rally, though there was a decent sell-off in the last half hour of trading.

I had a few stop-outs today, a typical Friday with messy action.

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Commodity prices remain elevated despite easing inflationary pressures.

It’s evident in the two overarching themes across the commodity space – resilience at the index level and relative strength from metals.

I’ve been vocal about both, urging readers not to fight DR. Copper while teasing the possibility of Gold reaching 5K. I’m serious about both!

Strength likely spills over into the periphery if we’re in an environment where gold and copper print fresh highs. 

That brings us to my favorite chart this week…

Check out the Uranium ETF $URA:

URA completed a multi-year base in April 2021. It has since found support at a former resistance level marked by its prior cycle highs from 2017. 

I’m sure...

From the Desk of Willie Delwiche.

The last decade-plus has featured extended periods of US leadership and only brief bouts of with the rest of the world on top. While it may be outside of the experience or active memory for many investors, the first decade of this millennium saw the exact opposite: persistent strength from the rest of the world and little leadership from the US.

Why It Matters: When it comes to global equity exposure, diversification has been a dirty word for a decade. US investors have not been rewarded for looking overseas. Now that is changing. Absolute uptrends are more common right now outside of the US than within our borders. Our asset allocation model that uses the ACWI (60% US) as a benchmark is near max underweight equities (versus bonds and commodities), while a version that takes the US out of the equation is at max overweight equities. Investors are taking notice, with US equity ETFs seeing outflows and foreign equity ETFs experiencing a surge in inflows. The paradigm is shifting and investors are getting...

This is the video recording of our January 27, 2023, All Star Charts Crypto Weekly Strategy Session.

This is the video recording of our January 27, 2023, Inside Scoop Weekly Strategy Session.