I don't know how many times I've said it this year. Someone go back and count.

But the catalyst IS THE WEAKER DOLLAR.

It's not the fed, or the election, or yield curves, or wars, or Santa Claus or any of the other random arguments that we've all heard along the way.

It's the US Dollar.

Period.

It's the weekly currency edition of What the FICC?

So far this week, the Japanese yen has stolen the show. But where does that leave the USD/JPY heading into 2023?

Check it out!

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Welcome to the 2 to 100 Club.

As many of you know, something we've been working on internally is using various bottom-up tools and scans to complement our top-down approach. It's really been working for us!

One way we're doing this is by identifying the strongest growth stocks as they climb the market-cap ladder from small- to mid- to large- and, ultimately, to mega-cap status (over $200B).

Once they graduate from small-cap to mid-cap status (over $2B), they come on our radar. Likewise, when they surpass the roughly $30B mark, they roll off our list.

But the scan doesn't just end there.

We only want to look at the strongest growth industries in the market, as that is typically where these potential 50-baggers come from.

Some of the best performers in recent decades – stocks like Priceline, Amazon, Netflix, Salesforce, and myriad others – would have been on this list at some point during their...

We had a resting GTC order filled at our profit target in the Paid-to-Play portfolio today:

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

What do you do when the party gets out of hand?

You raise the roof!

That’s what the Bank of Japan (BoJ) did yesterday as its former yield curve control policies became untenable. After intervening to keep its 10-year yield below 0.25%, it shifted the ceiling to 0.50%. 

Naturally, the yen responded in earnest. It posted an explosive rally following the BoJ policy shift, gaining more than 500 pips against the dollar. 

But where does that leave the USD/JPY heading into 2023?

From the Desk of Kimmy Sokoloff

In today's Morning Briefing, I wrote about $SPY and $TQQQ trade ideas.

Both targets were reached. SPY ran right into resistance at 387 and then pulled back, as was alerted.

This is the video recording of our December 21, 2022, Inside Scoop Weekly Strategy Session.

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

Seems like almost everyone has a 2023 earnings estimate for the S&P 500. The thinking seems to be that if you are going to make up a year-end guess at price you should come up with one for earnings as well. That’s not a game I want to play.     

Why It Matters: It’s not the overall levels that matter, but whether those levels are being revised higher or revised lower. Earnings estimates for more and more companies were being revised lower over the second half of 2021 and the first half of 2022. That trend has stabilized  since mid-year. If the worst case for 2023 is priced in, there is room for both price and earnings revisions to move higher. If it is not, then the lows established over the second half of 2022 are not likely to hold. Remember, when it comes to adapting to incoming information, it’s not a question of whether it is good or bad, but whether it is better or worse than expected.

In this week’s Sentiment Report we take a closer look at how investors are feeling...

We've covered before how much I like buying stocks that are making new all-time highs. I like them, even more, when I can buy call options because premiums are low. And it's a cherry on top when the stock pays a meaty and steady dividend which lends price action support over the long run!

Today's trade checks all these boxes.

We had a resting GTC order filled at our profit target in the Paid-to-Play portfolio today:

The next new position in our Paid-to-Play portfolio is:

The strategy was simple: long Coinbase $COIN above the May lows while cutting our losses below there.

And, lo and behold, it took out those pivot lows. Like any responsible trader using good risk-management practices, we took the loss on the chin and got out of the position.

We were either plain wrong or got the timing off on the trade, so we stuck to our plan and obeyed the price action. We thought the stock was good for a bounce.

But, clearly, COIN had other ideas.

Senator Tommy Tuberville of Alabama is back on our list after filing his first Periodic Transaction Report since early November.

Here’s what Sen. Tuberville is buying:

• Intel Corporation $INTC ($100,000 - $250,000)
• Activision Blizzard $ATVI ($100,000 - $250,000)
• Cleveland-Cliffs $CLF ($50,000 - $100,000)

While Activision is a new name for Tuberville, these are the second purchases he has made in both Intel and Cleveland-Cliffs in recent months.

From the Desk of Kimmy Sokoloff

As I write this note, the futures are gapping higher.

The cash index could open roughly at $SPX 3,850 -- that is, as long as we stay higher.

Thanks to everyone who joined us live last night on our Mid-month Conference Call.

We had a lot to talk about.

There are plenty of opportunities out there to profit. These are exciting times for sure.

One of the charts I discussed was the performance of different types of stocks since the market bottomed in June.

Here's each sector's performance since June 16th, which was the day that the NYSE new lows list peaked:

We retired our "Five Bull Market Barometers" in 2020 to make room for a new weekly post that's focused on the three most important charts for the week ahead.

This is that post, so let's jump into this week's edition.

This week we're looking into the Healthcare Sector. On a broader level, it is a weak sector, but a few stocks are moving higher along strong segments of the market.

This is the video recording of the December 2022 Mid-month Conference Call.

We discussed:

• The S&P500 & DJ Industrial Avg below overhead supply
• Median Stock is above Key Long-term Support
• Consumer Staples & Low Volatility Stocks outperforming
• Performance of Sectors since Stocks Bottomed June 16th
• Waiting for an expansion of the new highs list
• The implications of a stronger Japanese Yen
• Dollar weakening vs Developed Market & Emerging Market Currencies
• 4-year Presidential Cycle Bullish Sweet Spot
• Small-caps to buy that are outperforming
• Bonds making new highs
• Interest rates impact on Growth Stocks
• Which Energy Stocks To Buy Now
• The relentless bid in Gold & Precious Metals
• Which Gold & Silver stocks to own
• Sugar and Soybeans breaking out
• Copper Underperforming Gold
• Chinese Stocks leading the way
• European Financials outperforming U.S. Financials
• Industrials Leading - which ones to buy
• Mega-cap Healthcare as a defensive trade
• ...

From the Desk of Kimmy Sokoloff

We saw a decent snapback in the market early today then a late-morning fade.

This $SPX 3,800 level is support for now.