From the Desk of Ian Culley @Ianculley

The strong US dollar and higher interest rates have dominated the conversation this year.

But the direction of the US Dollar Index $DXY has changed, breaking its year-to-date trendline earlier this month. 

Will interest rates follow?

Not yet! So far, the uptrend remains intact for the five-, 10-, and 30-year yields. We have to give these trends the benefit of the doubt, for now.

Despite their persistence, it seems more a matter of when not if rates do eventually roll over.

Based on information from the US bond market and developed-market European yields, it could happen sooner than you might expect.

Let’s break it down.

First, we can’t dismiss the middle-long end of the curve holding above year-to-date trendlines.

Our outlook remains higher for these yields as long as their trend lines hold. If they...

This is the video recording of the December 1st, 2022, Weekly Town Hall w/ Willie Delwiche.

12/1/22 2:00 PM ET

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

The Scales are unchanged this month, continuing to tip toward risk and away from opportunity. 

A strong finish to November has renewed hopes that the 2022 bear market is moving from present reality to past experience. The weight of the evidence argues against jumping to that conclusion just yet. Simply put, we have not seen enough market strength to justify looking past the still present macro concerns. The evidence remains cautious and so do we. 

Our Weight of the Evidence Dashboard fills in the details and includes a few charts that have our attention heading into December.

The next new position in our Paid-to-Play portfolio is:

Markets are seriously complicated.

There's an endless number of participants, countless investment vehicles, and a million ways to analyze money flow.

Here at All Star Charts, we analyze thousands of individual markets and securities, all belonging to various asset classes. It goes without saying that we collectively look at thousands of charts every week.

There's no substitute for setting aside time to go through our chartbooks and putting in the work.

But, every now and again, certain environments and conditions dictate simplicity. Sometimes, we can step back and identify the major themes in just a handful of charts.

Indeed, for crypto markets, it has been rather simple.

The argument has been to be long if Bitcoin's above its prior-cycle highs and to be patient if the opposite is true.

But I'll pose that there's an equally significant data point that we'd be irresponsible to ignore.

I continue to wonder what people are so angry about.

More and more stocks keep going up.

Fewer and fewer are going down.

More sectors are participating.

More countries are acting strong.

What's the problem?

The CEO, the CFO, and the chief technology officer of Hillman Solutions Corp $HLMN all filed Form 4s reporting insider buys.

The three C-suite offers combined bought $1.5 million worth of HLMN shares.

From the Desk of Kimmy Sokoloff

That was a big move yesterday. A little digestion would be beneficial.

We broke the 200-day moving average in the $SPX. The next leg up is at 4,120.

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

When investing in the stock market, we always want to approach it as "a market of stocks."

Regardless of the environment, there are always stocks showing leadership and trending higher.

We may have to look harder to identify them depending on current market conditions. But there are always stocks that are going up.

The same can be said for weak stocks. Regardless of the environment, there are always stocks that are going down, too. 

We already have multiple scans focusing on stocks making all-time highs, such as Hall of Famers, Minor Leaguers, and the 2 to 100 Club.

We filter these universes for stocks that are exhibiting the best momentum and relative strength characteristics. 

Clearly, we spend a lot of time identifying and writing about leading stocks every week, via multiple reports.

But we also highlight lagging stocks on a recurring basis.

Welcome to the Short Report.

We publish...

From the desk of Steve Strazza @sstrazza

I’m pinch-hitting on the crypto note today.

It’s not so much because JC and Louis needed me to step in. It’s because I wanted to share something with you. 

I want to discuss a potential mean-reversion trade opportunity in Coinbase $COIN.

I think it’s one of the best ways to express a bullish tactical thesis on cryptocurrency markets right now.

I know that’s really not saying a lot these days. The asset class is a mess. “Disaster” might be a better descriptor, particularly as it relates to the FTX meltdown.

In the aftermath of its collapse, how can we trust any of the crypto exchanges right now? Why the hell would we want to buy Coinbase? Isn’t it just the next domino to fall?

Hear me out…

 While the FTX token $FTT has cratered toward zero in the past several weeks, Bitcoin $BTC and Ethereum $ETH have been relatively unscathed.

Both are trading about 20% off their highs from earlier in the month before news of the scandal broke.

As for other major exchanges, such as Binance $BNB and Coinbase, the charts are still stuck in the same ranges they’ve been in since...

From the Desk of Kimmy Sokoloff

What a day.

The indices rallied off of Powell’s speech, and the $SPX crossed the 200-day moving average. The SPX almost closed its gap at 4,083 back on Sept. 12.

We can trend higher into the 4,120 mark in time.

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

The S&P 500 and various measures of investor sentiment all remain below their August highs. We are getting neither the broad increase in optimism nor the improving price action needed to argue that the bounce off of the October lows is the beginning of a new bull market.   

Why It Matters: Price and sentiment often move in tandem. Optimism rebounded as stocks rallied off its October low but has struggled (like it the S&P 500 itself) to eclipse it’s summer highs. All three sentiment indicators have now ticked lower and we are seeing some evidence that the upside price momentum that accompanied the rally off of last month’s lows is starting to wane. Investors getting impatient with an unexpectedly persistent downtrend in prices could be reflected in sentiment indicators moving back toward their recent lows. Ultimately, time will tell how investors respond to their resolve being tested.   

In this week’s Sentiment Report we take a closer look at the latest options data and...

These are the registration details for our Live Monthly Candlestick Strategy Session for Premium Members of All Star Charts.

This month’s Video Conference Call will be held on Monday December 5th @ 6PM ET. As always, if you cannot make the call live, the video and slides will be archived and published here along with every other live call since 2015.

Here are the details for Monday evening:

This is the video recording of our November 30, 2022, Inside Scoop Weekly Strategy Session.

The next new position in our Paid-to-Play portfolio is:

It's the weekly currency edition of What the FICC?

Today we're turning our attention to key commodity currencies for insight into the US dollar's next directional move.

Check it out!

The largest insider transaction on today’s list is a Form 4 filing by General Atlantic LP.

The hedge fund reported an additional purchase worth roughly $7 million in HireRight Holdings Corp $HRT.

From the Desk of Kimmy Sokoloff

I think it could be a decision day for the indices, and we're either setting up for a ripper or a decent drop.

The $SPX needs to get above 3,972. If it does, we can see 4,000-plus.

Otherwise, we can see 3,922, then 3,860.

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza 

While there have been some real winners during the recent rally, the run off the lows from this fall has also left many stocks behind.

Value stocks, cyclicals, and blue-chip names have prospered for the past two months, as groups like financials and industrials have been the latest beneficiaries of sector rotation. 

At the same time, mega-cap technology and the most-speculative growth areas of the market have continued to show relative weakness.

To be clear, it’s not like these stocks have been crashing lower while the rest of the market rallies. Of course, many have participated in the upside action.

But, on balance, the performance from growth stocks has been lackluster.

The disparity between the growth-heavy Nasdaq 100 and the value-heavy Dow Jones Industrial Average perfectly illustrates what’s taken place:

The Dow has rallied almost 20% off its October low, retracing more than 62% of its year-to-date drawdown. Notice how it briefly reclaimed the August highs...

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

The 2020 V-shaped recovery has warped investors’ brains. 

But this is nothing more than recency bias. In reality, bottoms are a process, not an event. 

Don’t fall victim to what’s easy or comfortable. Instead, let’s focus on the facts.

Markets continue to send mixed signals, testing the resolve of even the most disciplined investor. Rather than fight the trend or trendless nature of the markets, I prefer to identify evidence that supports the next directional move.

And there’s one insightful chart atop my deck regarding the direction of the US dollar.