From the Desk of Kimmy Sokoloff

Tough action in the market this week.

We started at $SPX 4,008 then dropped down to 3,906. Looks like the index is forming a bull flag.

Next week is typically a bullish week.

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza and Alfonso Depablos @AlfCharts

Our Hall of Famers list is composed of the 150 largest US-based stocks.

These stocks range from the mega-cap growth behemoths like Apple and Microsoft – with market caps in excess of $2T – to some of the new-age large-cap disruptors such as Moderna, Square, and Snap.

It has all the big names and more.

It doesn’t include ADRs or any stock not domiciled in the US. But don’t worry; we developed a separate universe for that. Click here to check it out.

The Hall of Famers is simple.

We take our list of 150 names and then apply our technical filters so the strongest stocks with the most momentum rise to the top.

Let’s dive right in and check out what these big boys are up to.

Here’s this week’s list:

Click table to enlarge view

We filter out any laggards that are down -5% or more relative to the S&P 500 over the trailing month. 

Then...

After some pretty significant broad market moves in both directions in recent weeks, it's starting to feel like market participants are a bit tired. And can we blame them?

While volatility is often beneficial to active traders who have a good game plan to pounce at opportunities that are presented in such environments, eventually, we get tired. It's exhausting.

Knowing this, we can take advantage of this potential situation by crafting trades that take advantage of the likely decrease of options premiums that often takes place when traders are tired and stocks and indexes start trading in smaller ranges.

So let's use the Utilities sector to express a bet on compressing ranges...

From the Desk of Willie Delwiche.

With stocks experiencing week-to-week swings at a nearly unprecedented level, zooming out and keeping a bigger picture in mind is an essential. The Value Line Geometric Index’s affinity for round numbers makes this an easier exercise.

Why It Matters: The Value Line Geometric Index (a broad proxy for the median US stock) is in the middle of the range between 500 and 600 that has been intact since Memorial Day. Prior to that it spent 15 months moving from 600 to 700 and then back to 600. Looking back over the past 15 years, round numbers have acted as magnets for this index. If this tendency holds, a break above the August peak could clear the way for a test of its high near 700. Conversely, breaking below the September low could lead to a test of 400, a level seen during the COVID sell-off & recovery. Which way it breaks remains to be seen - but the lines have been drawn.

We had a resting GTC order filled at our profit target in the Paid-to-Play portfolio today:

We had a resting GTC order filled in the Paid-to-Play portfolio today:

This is the video recording of our November 18, 2022, All Star Charts Crypto Weekly Strategy Session.

The next new position in our Paid-to-Play portfolio is:

We continue to see large Form 4 filings from an array of corporate insiders.

Today, we have a filing by ESAB Corp $ESAB director Mitchell P. Rales, who disclosed new purchases worth $20 million.

From the Desk of Kimmy Sokoloff

The indices recaptured their respective eight-day moving averages, and it seems they're forming bull flags.

Maybe now we are on the way to $SPY 403.

Note: Our Live Mid-month Conference call is this coming Monday Nov 21st @ 6PM ET. Premium Members can register here.

For quite some time we've treated Bitcoin and many Altcoins as just more stocks to choose from.

More specifically, we can argue they might be software stocks, or Tech stock of some kind.

At the very least, we've agreed that they're in the growth category and part of that long-duration trade.

And the correlations have been there to justify it.

So the divergence we've seen lately really stands out.

Regardless of market capitalization, you can see the growth stocks holding on to their June lows, but Bitcoin and many Altcoins have not.

From the Desk of Ian Culley @Ianculley

Don’t take your eyes off the US dollar and interest rates!

I know it’s been a long year, but we’re finally witnessing early signs of potential trend reversals. The breakdown in the dollar last week confirmed the mounting evidence suggesting the USD has reached its peak.

Now, will interest rates follow?

Check out the dual pane chart of the US dollar index $DXY and the 30-year yield $TYX:

They look almost identical. The recent breakdown in the dollar marks the lone flaw between the two, raising the question…

Will the strong relationship between rates and the dollar hold?

I won’t pretend to know where rates are headed. But if the dollar and rates remain on similar paths, my money is on declining yields at the longer end of the curve.

A falling 30-year yield also makes sense based on a...

From the Desk of Kimmy Sokoloff

Today was like a strange pendulum -- back and forth and up and down and all around.

The $SPY tried hard all morning to hold on to the eight-day moving average at 391.40.

Once $AAPL started to move higher, so did the indices -- SPY ran up to 394-plus.

This is the video recording of the November 17th, 2022, Weekly Town Hall w/ Willie Delwiche.

11/17/22 2:00 PM ET

The next new position in our Paid-to-Play portfolio is:

This week we came right out of the gates with the Chart of the Decade.

The catalyst for stocks to have a sustained rally is a weaker US Dollar.

The market keeps proving that to be right.

And yes, I am aware that in the 1990s, a weaker Dollar was not the bullish catalyst for stocks.

But are you aware that this is not the 1990s?

It's 2022 and the correlation has been consistently negative between stocks and Dollars.

Market breadth has to be the handiest tool in our technical analysis kit.

Sure, we love ripping through thousands of charts to gauge broad market trends. But breadth indicators are a cheat code. Putting in the work, we can easily quantify and, more importantly, visualize how well a market is being supported by its constituents.

Because remember, it will always be a market of stocks, not a stock market. Or, in this case, a market of cryptocurrencies.

There are numerous ways to optimize this data output; we can use this breadth data as the basis of a systematic approach.

Your trading system is only as good as your understanding of how well your system operates in different market environments.

If you understand that particular systems and strategies work better in trending environments but are terrible in rangebound markets, you can optimize your trading performance by leaning on different approaches depending on the market environment.

This is where quantifying breadth can have a lot of edge for a trader because it helps them objectively recognize the current market environment and, subsequently, which strategies they should lean...

The largest insider transaction on today's list is a Form 4 filing by the CEO of Ryan Specialty Group Holdings $RYAN.

The chief executive revealed a purchase worth $6.1 million in the specialty insurance company.

From the Desk of Kimmy Sokoloff

The S&P futures broke below 3,950, and now they're riding the eight-day moving average at 3,930.

So far, this is a healthy contraction, one that I've been looking for.

These are the registration details for our live mid-month conference call for Premium Members of All Star Charts.

Our next Live Call will be held on Monday November 21st at 6PM ET. As always, if you cannot make the call live, the video and slides will be archived and published here along with every other live call since 2015.

Here are the details for Monday night: