From the Desk of Willie Delwiche.

A Market of Stocks > A Stock Market

The Chart: The S&P 500 fell 0.7% on Wednesday, despite a majority of the stocks in the index advancing on the day. Thursday was similar, with the index falling 0.6% but again more stocks were up than down.

By The Numbers: Going back to 1998, there have been 276 single day instances of the index declining on days when more stocks were up than down. That is less than 5% of the time. We’ve seen it for two days in a row only 25 times. 2022 is the first year since 2017 that we have had two in a row more than once in a single year. We’ve only seen three for three (three consecutive index-level declines accompanied by more stocks rising than falling) three times since 1998, with the most recent coming more than twenty years ago.

Why It Matters: Cap-weighted indexes are heavily influenced by the direction of the largest components. But rallies are stronger when more stocks are rising than falling, when more stocks are making new...

"Old Economy" stocks are drawing our attention again.

Our Head Technical Analyst Steve Strazza says: "these old economy stocks are all beating earnings and taking leadership roles" and he cites companies like Caterpillar $CAT, Deere $DE, as well as energies, homebuilders, and transportation stocks.

Today's trade is an expression of the continuation of this theme, and our target stock is offering us a nice pullback to enter into.

We've adjusted a position in the Paid-to-Play portfolio today:

From the Desk of Kimmy Sokoloff

It was a big earnings night last night, with $AAPL up and $AMZN down.

Futures are negative this morning. I'd like to see the $SPX hold 3,772. To continue higher, we must stay above 3,800 for a potential move to 3,820.

The Twitter-and-Elon Musk saga has finally come to an end, as the eccentric billionaire has completed a $44 billion acquisition of the struggling social media company.

The stock will be delisted from the New York Stock Exchange today.

How great it is that we can change our minds and take decisive action immediately?

As traders in the financial markets, if our spidey senses detect that something is amiss or conditions have changed, we can often liquidate our positions and head safely into cash with just a few keystrokes on our computer. Depending on the size of our positions, we can be completely in cash within minutes, maybe even seconds!

You can’t do that with Real Estate.

You certainly can’t do that with Private Equity investments.

You definitely can’t do that with a small business.

All of those investments are fine for their own reasons. But they don’t offer us the opportunity to immediately exit if we change our minds.

Of course, just because we can change our minds on a dime doesn’t mean we always should. If we’re wishy-washy and trading without a plan, it becomes incredibly easy to overtrade and drive our commission bills and nerves through the roof. While this might make us popular at our broker’s office, our accountants will unlikely be pleased.

There are stocks going up and there are stocks going down.

I'm old enough to remember when we would all call that normal.

The going up category just got longer recently. Remember Energy had been the only Sector Index above its 200 day moving average.

Healthcare is now also on that list.

Industrials and Consumer Staples are the next closest ones.

This morning we talked about how poorly the Tech heavy Emerging Markets were doing vs those like Brazil, Saudi Arabia and Indonesia, that have a much different composition.

The difference in performance is off the charts.

There are big winners and big losers.

Another big loser driving...

From the Desk of Ian Culley @Ianculley

Bonds have stopped falling across the board!

That doesn’t mean it’s time to go all in. Tactically, it’s difficult to get behind this week’s near-term strength. 

Right now, we’re looking at just a few days of bullish price action. And where do we define our risk?

We have to know where we’re right and where we're wrong before we get involved in any investment. 

Thankfully, high-yield bonds answer this all-important question.

Check out the daily chart of the High-Yield Bond ETF $HYG:

Unlike most bonds, HYG has formed a small reversal formation.

We like the looks of this 4-week inverted head-and-shoulders on the HYG chart. Momentum is improving. And the bulls are reclaiming a key level of former support turned resistance marked by its...

From the Desk of Kimmy Sokoloff

The market took a healthy pause today, and the $SPX held onto 3,800 support. The next level of support is 3,772.

So far this week, the market has shrugged off bad tech earnings. Let's see what $AAPL and $AMZN bring us tonight.

We'll also see if the $SPY holds onto 380 and then 378. If not we have room down to 376.55.

This is the video recording of the October 27th, 2022, Weekly Town Hall w/ Willie Delwiche.

10/27/22 2:00 PM ET

We had a resting GTC order filled at our profit target in the Paid-to-Play portfolio today:

We've adjusted a position in the Paid-to-Play portfolio today:

You certainly see it in life - the losers usually continue to lose. And winners win.

It's the same thing in the stock market. Winners tend to keep on winning, and the losers remain losers for a reason.

With the whole ESG scam unraveling over the past couple of years, the market has voted with their dollars.

That's what pays.

Not cute bed time stories. Actual Dollars.

Forget the narratives. I want to know what investors are ACTUALLY doing.

And as we have documented here consistently, the voting dollars are being used to buy Energy.

But I continue to be impressed with the strength in Energy stocks, despite the correction we've seen in Crude Oil Futures.

Bear markets are infamous for their counter-trend rallies.

Breakouts fail, and the charts are painted with false moves.

Throughout this bear market, traders have bought the breakouts to then dump the next day into an illiquid tape.

Given the gains we've seen over the last few days, I think it's important we step back.

From the Desk of Kimmy Sokoloff

Yesterday, the $SPX pushed its way through the 50-day moving average at 3,860, then reversed course to close below it.

I mentioned this is a resistance level where the market might need a breather.

We got a new Form 13D from our favorite corporate raider yesterday, as Carl Icahn revealed  an increased ownership stake in Southwest Gas $SWX.

Icahn now owns 9.8% of outstanding shares, a very slight uptick from the 9.7% he reported on September 7.

I understand the theories about Crypto Currencies being a scam.

"The whole thing is about to fall apart", they tell me.

And yea maybe.

That's entirely possible.

I don't really care that much either way. If it goes up, I hope to profit from it. And if all the coins go to zero, I'll make sure I'm not in them.

Other people losing money long crypto in that scenario is not my problem. I don't have the slightest interest or the time to care about other people's portfolios.

And I say that only to reiterate that I'm approaching this conversation with a very open mind.

Because we all know that the Bitcoin maxis and Ethereum folks can rarely have a civilized conversation, particularly with those who might disagree.

So to be clear, I do not care at all.

Welcome to the 2 to 100 Club.

As many of you know, something we've been working on internally is using various bottom-up tools and scans to complement our top-down approach. It's really been working for us!

One way we're doing this is by identifying the strongest growth stocks as they climb the market-cap ladder from small- to mid- to large- and, ultimately, to mega-cap status (over $200B).

Once they graduate from small-cap to mid-cap status (over $2B), they come on our radar. Likewise, when they surpass the roughly $30B mark, they roll off our list.

But the scan doesn't just end there.

We only want to look at the strongest growth industries in the market, as that is typically where these potential 50-baggers come from.

Some of the best performers in recent decades – stocks like Priceline, Amazon, Netflix, Salesforce, and myriad others – would have been on this list at some point during their journey to becoming the market behemoths they are today.

From the Desk of Kimmy Sokoloff

Tech did not lead the way higher.

And the indices still chugged along.

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza and Alfonso Depablos @AlfCharts

Stocks are back in bear market rally mode for the second time since this summer!

Whether this is the beginning of a new bull market is something we can only know in hindsight. 

Fortunately, defining the current rally appropriately is not a prerequisite for participating in it. And the latter is all we’re worried about.

We want to position ourselves in the strongest stocks from the strongest groups and use them as vehicles to benefit from the counter-trend move that's underway.

We discussed this in more detail on today’s Strategy Session. Click here to review the recording and the chartbook.

Now, let’s dive in and check out some of our favorite setups from our Inside Scoop universe.