The Fixed Income, Commodity, and Currency markets are near and dear to my heart. Ever since I began learning Technical Analysis, I've always loved analyzing things that are "off the beaten path." This included everything from Interest Rates to Soybeans to the Norwegian Krone. Equities are great and all, but this is the stuff that gets me up in the morning.
In addition to the blog posts we do on the site, I've wanted to explore new ways to share that passion with you all and show why even if you're not investing in these markets directly, they're worth paying attention to.
That brings us to my new weekly show, "What The FICC?"
In this weekly video series, I'll be highlighting the most important chart or theme from these three asset classes while doing my best to tie that analysis back to Equities through an intermarket signal or a trade idea.
The first two pilot episodes are linked down below. I hope you enjoy them and look forward to seeing you all back here each week for a new episode!
I'm on vacation and trying to stay away from the screens as much as possible this week, but you broke out on Wednesday and today you're just hanging there, baiting me into getting involved.
There has been a lot of opportunity in Commodities lately, particularly in Precious Metals and Base Metals, after years of nothing.
Today we want to highlight the strength in Natural Gas, a theme we've been pointing to most of this year but that's now accelerating.
Let's take a look at what's happening and how we can take advantage of it.
Here's the chart we were using as our roadmap at the beginning of the year as prices approached long-term support near 115. Additionally, we were seeing momentum stay out of oversold territory, signaling that sellers were unable to stay aggressive and take prices to new lows.
Click on chart to enlarge view.
This week we've seen an acceleration to the upside, pushing prices above former support to...
I feel like at this point if they're not on my podcast, I'm on theirs. It's pretty funny when you think about it.
The idea here is to just continue the conversation. It's been a habit of mine for decades. Whether it's over dinner, cocktails, on someone's podcast, video, doesn't matter. I've found it really helpful to talk to smart people on a regular basis.
One of the things I enjoy most is learning more about technology, particularly fintech, and what sorts of tools we're going to use in the future. This is the greatest time to be alive in human history. I'm on the edge of my seat every day waiting for what's next. In some cases, we're the ones building what's next, and that's also really cool to watch. The way I see it, if we're not investing in Technology, it's a big mistake. We know what we think will be helpful to us internally better than anyone else. So why shouldn't we just build it? (we're looking to hire 2 more engineers: Ping Me).
Howard Lindzon is one of the guys I've always turned to with questions about all of the above: Fintech, Trading tools and what's in store for the next 5...
We've been selectively participating in a few Steel stocks over the last few months as we waited for a signal to get more aggressive in the space.
Yesterday we got that signal as the Nifty Metal Index broke out to new recovery highs and reclaimed support on a relative basis.
In this post, we're going to outline what we're seeing in the sector and what we're buying to take advantage of this theme.
First, let's start with Base Metals (read for context), which continue to trend higher along with Precious Metals. In July when we were talking about them, we were staying very selective in the Nifty Metal space because it hadn't yet broken out despite the strength in Commodities.
As a result, we were focused on names like Jindal Steel & Power knowing that we'd get more aggressive once the sector index broke out. In the meantime, sticking with stocks like Jindal Steel & Power which had well-defined risk and a price catalyst (...
This is a behind the scenes video of our team meeting held on July 6, 2020 4PM ET.
Every quarter we put out our Playbook focusing on the most important themes around the world to take advantage of, and just as importantly, which areas to avoid. This is usually about 150 pages and really dives deep into stocks, rates, commodities, forex and the intermarket relationships between all of them.
I hope this gives you some perspective on how we approach markets using our Top/Down Approach. We've always found it helpful to understand where people are coming from and why they say certain things. I hope this can give you some of that context about us. I think it also helps you get to know our team a little better. Enjoy!
Anyone who traded in the late 90's only referred to Microsoft stock as "Mister Softee." It was stupid, as many stock nicknames were, but that's what it was. And you seemingly couldn't go a day without hearing "Mister Softee is making new highs!" from summer 1998 until early 2000.
I almost have PTSD from it.
Fast forward to today. Microsoft doesn't get the same media attention today as it did back then, now being overshadowed by the Amazons, Facebooks, Googles, Apples, and Teslas, of the world. But the price action is definitely giving me flashbacks.
And the ASC research team has a gaudy 323 price target for Microsoft $MSFT over the next several months which has me interested in playing along with options.
In September we'll be starting a new Live Monthly Conference Call at the beginning each month to review the most prominent monthly candlesticks charts from across the globe.
For those unfamiliar with our process, we use Monthly Candlesticks to tune out the daily/weekly noise and focus on the long-term trends in the market. It is one of the most invaluable parts of our process, by far.
As a preview of this new conference call format, I've recorded a quick video highlighting some charts that stood out for us in July.
For those new to the exercise, we take a chart of interest and remove the x/y-axes and any other labels that would help identify it. The chart can be any security in any asset class on any timeframe on an absolute or relative basis. Maybe it’s a custom index or inverted, who knows!
We do all this to put aside the biases we have associated with this specific security/the market and come to a conclusion based solely on price.
You can guess what it is if you must, but the real value comes from sharing what you would do right now. Buy,Sell, or Do Nothing?
I’ve been incredibly fortunate to become the latest intern here at All Star Charts and as a part of the role, I’ll be writing a weekly note for the blog - documenting what I’m learning about technical analysis from the perspective of an intern.
Without further adieu, let’s jump into what stuck out to me this week.
Welcome to my new Monthly show that I'm doing with my friend Josh Brown. He is one of the most widely followed Financial Advisors in the country, and someone who I've been arguing with about markets for the better part of 2 decades.
Every month I'll bring a handful of the the most important Monthly charts that stood out during my review. In our first episode, I wanted to discuss the S&P500 making new all-time highs, Transports leading the way in July, Rates hitting new all-time lows and Bitcoin starting a new breakout.
This is the chart that I think tells the July story best. The further to the left the asset is, the closer it is to a new a 52 week high. The higher up the asset, the better its performance in July. Notice Transports in the upper right: Relative weakness overall, BUT the best performer this month, followed by Emerging Markets, Gold and base metals. The lonely US Dollar down below stands out doesn't it?
This weekend we got a fresh batch of new Monthly Candlesticks. If you're not using these charts to help you identify primary trends, I think you're doing yourself a disservice. I rarely push a particular strategy or process. I usually just like to present the data, give you my conclusions, and then let you decide how, or if, you want to use it.
But for this, I don't care who you are, Monthly Charts are an invaluable tool. Even if you're a short-term trader or swing trader, we want to put all of that work into context, recognizing the major trends that are in place. Trust me, go build your own list of the most important charts and flip through them just once at the end of each month. I challenge you to start doing that every month and then come and tell me that it's not helpful. I dare you!
Anyway, every time I go through this exercise, there are always a few things that stand out. This time around, I'd be remiss if I didn't point out the new All-time lows in US Interest Rates. Whether you're looking at...