Did you notice that the U.S. Financials Sector Index is just 3.5% away from its infamous all-time highs in 2007 before the financial crisis?
That's right, $XLF is approaching this level once again, for the 3rd time in almost 13 years. Is this finally going to be it? Are we really going to start a new bull market in Financials?
I think yes and I'm going to tell you why.
First here is the chart I'm referring to and its 3rd attempt to get through this level:
You can also watch this entire video for just $1 by clicking this link. In this short clip below, I show you 3 specific points throughout the presentation where
1) I discuss risk management techniques and how we will know soon if we're wrong on our thesis,
2) a specific ratio that is a coincident and, often times, a leading indicator for US Stocks, and
3) how we identify specific trade ideas using the top/down approach, with 2 ideas in particular that we want to take advantage of today.
Our conclusion then was to be avoiding the sector on the long side and that its weakness was a drag on the broader market given its 10% weighting in the Nifty 500.
Today, not much has changed, in fact, it's arguably getting worse.
If you look at a list of the best-performing stock markets in the world this year and over the last few, you'll see New Zealand towards the top of that list in both local currency and US Dollar terms.
With that said, today's Chart of The Week is focused on another New Zealand chart that's NOT equities.
Don't worry, we'll talk equities too for you non-currency traders.
I'm not saying I'm bullish on Disney because my family recently signed up to send them money every month for Disney+, but it certainly has me thinking about the tremendous new source of cashflow to be streaming into their coffers. That's got to be bullish, right?
Of course, at All Star Charts, all we ever follow around here is price so none of the above really matters, it just makes a nice story. But lo and behold, the $DIS chart sure is setting up for a continuation of what already is a pretty significant run:
We just got back from 6 days in India and I think it will add some value to give you some perspective on the kinds of things we learned. Sean McLaughlin is our Chief Options Strategist and had never been to Asia before. This was an eye opening experience for him and one that reiterated a lot of important things I noticed in my prior visits to Mumbai.
We attended a CMT Conference, we filmed a documentary on Indian Options Trading, we ate some of the best food this planet has to offer, we hung out with some of the nicest and coolest people know and got to learn a ton from everything around us. I love going to Mumbai and it’s so nice to see the rest of the gang enjoyed their time there as well.
I always feel so welcomed by everyone. I can’t wait to go back! I hope this podcast helps shed some light on how much we enjoyed the trip and maybe that encourages you to make the...
What I always like to say is that Technical Analysis doesn't give us all the answers, but it certainly goes a long way in helping us ask the right questions. That's what this is all about.
For those new to the exercise, we take a chart of interest and remove the x/y-axes and any other labels that would help identify it. The chart can be any security in any asset class on any timeframe on an absolute or relative basis. Maybe it's a custom index or inverted, who knows!
We do all this to put aside the biases we have associated with this specific security/the market and come to a conclusion based solely on price.
You can guess what it is if you must, but the real value comes from sharing what you would do right now.Buy,Sell, or Do Nothing?
The Nifty 50 and Nifty 500 are back at the top of their multi-year range right as we're starting to see signs of exhaustion in various global markets.
Failed breakouts and bearish momentum divergences help us to identify potential reversals in the market and we're seeing a few of them occur in India and elsewhere.
Over the weekend I was running our "Weekend Momentum Report" for Institutional Clients and the message was very similar to last week, so I thought it was worth sharing.
While we were going to write a comprehensive post on the most important monthly charts from November, we realized there are only two that matter to India's stock market right now.
Are you guys noticing how the new 52-week high list keeps getting longer, and not shorter?
I can't emphasize enough how the lies about weak market breadth have been just that: Lies, or myths, or whatever words you need to use that won't offend people. I stopped caring about that sort of thing a long time ago and just tell it like it is (someone has to). I'm just not seeing the weak breadth scenario playing out like they keep telling me. It's actually been quite the opposite. We've been seeing expansion in participation for months. So this is really nothing new.
The Value Line Index has been a helpful barometer of US Stock Market strength in the past, and today is no different.
Neil Blalock is my guest this week on the podcast. I believe he is absolutely the perfect compliment to all of the other guests we've had on over the years. While many technical analysis, especially on this podcast, come from an equities background, Neil was raised in Missouri and brought up with commodities all around him. It wasn't until much later in his career that he focused more on the stock market. Because Technical Analysis can be applied to asset classes of all kinds, Neil is able to use his expertise across markets. What's funny is that you can take Neil out of the farm, but you can't take the farm away from him completely. When I asked him about what interests him out there, he went right for the Soybean Markets! Neil just can't help himself and it's a beauty to watch. In this episode we dive into the agriculture commodities market as well as the softs, precious metals and ultimately into the equities and interest rate markets. This was a really fun conversation with a different perspective than what you might be used to!
As November draws to a close, it's time to review positions with December options that remain open (haven't already hit profit targets or been stopped out).
Most trades I put on for All Star Options tend to have a minimum duration of 30 days (short premium plays) and often as long as 6-8 months (for long premium plays). As options approach expiration, greeks like theta and gamma start to become my enemy and whipsaw my P/L. Therefore, as options and spreads get into the expiration month, my best practice is to put each position on notice -- it's time to take action.