The reaction to both the election and the FOMC was overwhelmingly positive for risk assets across the board.
A long list of stock market indexes and individual issues just had their best day since the pandemic lows almost 5 years ago.
NYSE new highs just hit its highest reading in years, telling us the rally is supported by the broadest level of participation this cycle.
The election ended up being the catalyst to break out prolonged ranges in things like regional banks, biotechs, speculative growth, industrial metals, and even bitcoin.
These groups are finally joining the bull market party, and they are kicking it off in a big way.
So, what’s the big takeaway from all this?
The chart that illustrates it best is the Russell 2000 Micro-Cap Index $IWC:
I’ve annotated it to show the different stages of a market cycle.
IWC just had its best day since April 2020, printing a breakaway gap to new...
Here's the replay and chartbook from today's livestream. Note that we talk strategy every Thursday at 11 a.m. ET, and I answer questions in the chat room.
Be sure to join us and maximize your return potential.
Below is the 8th ASC Mastermind Lab Course. These are special videos that will be made available throughout the duration of the 12-week course featuring conversations with professionals from across Wall Street discussing topics in their expertise.
If you're going to talk about market seasonality, you might as well talk to the master. Jeff Hirsch is the editor and publisher of the Stock Trader's Almanac. His dad, Yale Hirsch, literally created the Almanac and is responsible for bringing the idea of market seasonality to the mainstream.
There is no one that understands market seasonality better than Jeff. I have learned everything that I know on this topic from him. I hope you enjoy our conversation.
In a notable display of confidence, the CEOs of Heartland Express $HTLD, Clear Channel Outdoor Holdings $CCO, and Intel Corporation $INTC each stepped up with fresh buys of their own stock, according to recent Form 4 filings.
When top executives reach into their own wallets, it’s often a signal they’re betting on one specific thing: They believe the stock is undervalued and primed to move higher.
Here’s The Hot Corner, with data from November 6, 2024:
In another Form 4, Director William Galtney Jr. reported a hefty $1 million buy in Everest Group Ltd $EG, snapping up 2,870 shares.
Thanks to everyone who joined us for today's Hot Corner Insider Weekly Strategy Session.
With the election behind us, banks and crypto proved the ultimate "Trump Trade."
And Customers Bancorp Inc $CUBI stands out as a regional bank, entering the crypto space with blockchain-based payments to attract fintech and crypto clients seeking secure, fast transactions.
This is an outstanding chart:
CUBI is up more than 18% today, and we believe it still has room to run.
During our Analyst meeting this morning, I observed the relative "calm" in the Chinese Large Cap ETF $FXI and how, while down for the day, it is still holding in a range it's been in for over three weeks now.
And we love how it's holding this range as a healthy consolidation from its late September breakout.
There's nothing about this chart that is bearish to me:
When I mentioned the relative bargain in long-dated call options in $FXI, JC said: "If we get rotation into China, this trade could make our year.
I agree.
Here's the Play:
I like buying $FXI January 2026 35-strike calls for approximately $3.00 per contract. This premium I pay today is the most I can lose in this trade and I'll size my position accordingly.
Meanwhile, I'm going to take an active roll in reducing my cost basis in this trade by selling nearer-term calls against it. This might not be for everyone (JC said he's not going to do it, for example).
Today, I'll also sell December 35 calls against this position for an approximately 52-cent credit. And I'll look to roll...
We all know it has been a bull market, but how sustainable is it?
In today's Gold Rush video, we addressed the elephant in the room. Is this a bubble?
Additionally, we revisited some of the greatest bubbles of all-time and tied it back to the current environment.
One of our favorite historic bubble examples is silver in the late 1970s:
The Hunt brothers controlled around 1/2 of the world's supply of silver and sparked a 900% rally over the course of 2-years. Over the next few years, silver retraced the entire preceding move as it collapsed by 90%.
Finally, we discussed a few strategies for riding a bubble higher and profiting from all the madness.
In this scan, we look to identify the strongest growth stocks as they climb the market-cap ladder from small- to mid- to large- and, ultimately, to mega cap status (over $200B).
Once they graduate from small-cap to mid-cap status (over $2B), they come on our radar. Likewise, when they surpass the roughly $30B mark, they roll off our list.
But the scan doesn't just end there.
We only want to look at the strongest growth industries in the market, as that is typically where these potential 50-baggers come from.
Some of the best performers in recent decades – stocks like Priceline, Amazon, Netflix, Salesforce, and myriad others – would have been on this list at some point during their journey to becoming the market behemoths they are today.
When you look at the stocks in our table, you'll notice we're only focused on Technology and Growth industry groups such as Software, Semiconductors, Online...
As expected, Trump won by landslide. It was never even close.
The public markets and the betting markets had it right.
The pollsters either got it wrong or they just lied to you. But neither of those is acceptable.
I never trusted those weirdos anyway, because why would I?
The way I learned it was that it's not about what they say, but about what they do. Money talks. And the money was right again.
In this case, the market even underestimated the wide margin of victory in last night's election. And the markets have adjusted accordingly.
Dow Futures are up another 1200 points this morning, after putting up a 500 spot during yesterday's session.
Bitcoin is up 5000 points to new all-time highs this morning
Tesla is up 12% and the Trump SPAC $DJT is up 30%.
So even through the betting markets got the President right, the Tradfi markets hadn't quite priced it all in yet, as we're seeing over the past 24 hours.
Here's the thing: None of us know what the market is going to do. That's the beauty of all this. We are working with incomplete information. And we know that going in. It's ok.