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International Hall of Famers (10-11-2024)

October 11, 2024

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Our International Hall of Famers list is composed of the 100 largest US-listed international stocks, or ADRs.

We've also sprinkled in some of the largest ADRs from countries that did not make the market cap cut. 

These stocks range from some well-known mega-cap multinationals such as Toyota Motor and Royal Dutch Shell to some large-cap global disruptors such as Sea Ltd and Shopify.

It's got all the big names and more–but only those that are based outside the US. You can find all the largest US stocks on our original Hall of Famers list.

The beauty of these scans is really in their simplicity.

We take the largest names each week and then apply technical filters in a way that the strongest stocks with the most momentum rise to the top.

Based on the market environment, we can also flip the scan on its head and filter for weakness.

Let's dive in and take a look at some of the most important stocks from...

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[Options Premium] Positioning for an Earnings Pop

October 11, 2024

This trade gets classified as a "Hard Trade."

The stock has had a strong runup in recent weeks. Some traders have a hard time buying stocks making highs.

I don't.

But with implied volatility relatively cheap right now in this stock, an earnings event on the horizon, and a potential "two-hundred-dollar-roll" looming ahead, this feels like the right time to take a defined risk shot.

Options Paid to Play

[Options P2P] Daily Digest 10/11/24

October 11, 2024

In today’s Daily Digest, we’ll review the following:

  1. No new positions today.
  2. Adjustment to XLI position.
  3. No exits since the last report.
  4. Current status of open campaigns.
  5. Volatility Snapshot.

Let’s dig in!

Hot Corner Insider

State Farm Reports a $1.2 Million GATX Purchase

October 11, 2024

Today’s top insider transaction comes from a Form 4 filed by State Farm Mutual Automobile Insurance Company, one of the largest insurers in the U.S. 

State Farm made a bold move with a $1.2 million purchase in GATX Corporation $GATX—a key player in the Rental & Leasing Services industry.

Here’s The Hot Corner, with data from October 10, 2024:

 
Breakout Multiplier

Selling the Double In SNOW

October 10, 2024

Snowflake Inc $SNOW is absolutely on fire, breaking out of its coil with authority these past two days.

This is exactly the kind of explosive resolution we hoped for when we entered our position. Volatility was tight. Now, it’s expanding in our favor. This one is working perfectly according to plan.

Our 11/15 $130 calls hit a high price of $5.15 today. Depending on what you paid, you might have a double on your hands.
 

Breakout Multiplier

Breakouts Are Better With Shakeouts

October 10, 2024

Tech stocks are taking charge as we kick off the fourth quarter, and I think it’s time to press the gas and prepare for a year-end rally.

When I review our portfolio of open positions I think we have a good mix, and I particularly like how overweight tech we are.

In fact, I think our most promising positions right now are the speculative tech names that we piled into over the past few weeks. I’m talking about Peloton, Robinhood, Snow, and ARKK.

HOOD and SNOW are the only ones working for us so far, but I think this is about to change.

Let’s take a look at the price action in ARKK and discuss why.

 

When we got long this one, it was coiling in a pennant just above some key VWAPs. 

Last week, ARKK appeared to resolve this coil to the downside as it tumbled to new multi-week lows.

But what has happened since is inconsistent with a pattern resolution… or more specifically, a pattern failure.

There has been no follow-through at all. ARKK is still in the same place it was when it broke down last week.

So, maybe this wasn’t...

Options Paid to Play

[Options P2P] Daily Digest 10/10/24

October 10, 2024

In today’s Daily Digest, we’ll review the following:

  1. New position in XRT (Retailers).
  2. No adjustments are needed today.
  3. No exits since the last report.
  4. Current status of open campaigns.
  5. Volatility Snapshot.

Let’s dig in!

Hot Corner Insider

Liberty 77 Reports Another LGF Purchase

October 10, 2024

The most notable insider activity on today's list comes via a Form 4 filing by Liberty 77 Fund.

The private equity fund, which manages approximately $2.95 billion in assets, reported a purchase of $1.2 million in Lions Gate Entertainment Corp $LGF.

Many times these transactions make sense only to buyers in the context of their investing or trading strategies.

With regard to LGF, for example, as technicians we prefer to wait until the chart looks more promising to us. This is not the case right now.

Here’s The Hot Corner, with data from October 9, 2024:

 
2 to 100 Club,
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2 to 100 Club (10-09-2024)

October 9, 2024

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Welcome to The 2 to 100 Club.

In this scan, we look to identify the strongest growth stocks as they climb the market-cap ladder from small- to mid- to large- and, ultimately, to mega cap status (over $200B).

Once they graduate from small-cap to mid-cap status (over $2B), they come on our radar. Likewise, when they surpass the roughly $30B mark, they roll off our list.

But the scan doesn't just end there.

We only want to look at the strongest growth industries in the market, as that is typically where these potential 50-baggers come from.

Some of the best performers in recent decades – stocks like Priceline, Amazon, Netflix, Salesforce, and myriad others – would have been on this list at some point during their journey to becoming the market behemoths they are today.

When you look at the stocks in our table, you'll notice we're only focused on Technology and Growth industry groups such as Software, Semiconductors, Online...

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[Options Premium] Leveraging Earnings Premium For a Long Bet

October 9, 2024

As I've discussed recently, earnings season is quickly approaching. And with it comes risks and opportunities.

For today's trade, I'm going to leverage elevated options premiums in a nearby expiration to get a better net cost on the real call options I'd like to own.

And I'm taking advantage of a recent pullback to get in at attractive prices and a nearby exit if I'm wrong.

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ASC Mastermind

ASC Mastermind Lab: Dan Russo's Momentum Strategy

October 9, 2024

Below is the 5th ASC Mastermind Lab Course. These are special videos that will be made available throughout the duration of the 12-week course featuring conversations with professionals from across Wall Street discussing topics in their expertise. 

In our last Mastermind Lab, I spoke with Steve Strazza about momentum thrusts. This time, I wanted to talk with a portfolio manager who uses momentum as part of his strategy. Enter Dan Russo, Portfolio Manager at Potomac Fund. 

Dan broke down for us a simple way of implementing momentum into your portfolio management, how he protects against drawdowns while using momentum, and what he sees as the biggest challenges of using momentum. 

Enjoy my conversation with Dan Russo.

 

Options Paid to Play

[Options P2P] Daily Digest 10/9/24

October 9, 2024

In today’s Daily Digest, we’ll review the following:

  1. New position in SMH (Semiconductors).
  2. No adjustments are needed today.
  3. No exits since the last report.
  4. Current status of open campaigns.
  5. Volatility Snapshot.

Let’s dig in!

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I am not Satoshi Nakamoto

October 9, 2024

Bitcoin Dominance just hit new multi-year highs this week.

In other words, the market-cap of bitcoin as a percentage of total crypto market-cap is the highest it's been in years.

What this means is that the value of Bitcoin today (~ $1.2 Trillion) represents 58% of the value of all the Cryptocurrencies in the world (~ $2.1 Trillion).

And the trend here of Bitcoin continuing to eat into market share continues to move up and to the right:

 

Meanwhile, Microstrategy is hitting new highs relative to Bitcoin since it first started buying Bitcoin back in the Fall of 2020.

Microstrategy is the 5th largest owner of Bitcoin, holding about 1/4 of the position of Bitcoin's creator Satoshi Nakamoto. 

Just to clear up any confusion, I am absolutely NOT Satoshi. I know it would be a lot cooler if I was. But I am not. Sorry to disappoint. 

Now, what I love most about the Microstrategy $MSTR hitting new highs relative to BTC, and also hitting new All-time highs on an absolute basis, is that the "fundamental" guys can't wrap their heads around the premium that $MSTR trades relative to its total ownership of BTC.

People tell me that...