When Junk Bond traders jump ship, I’m out of stocks.

With all the talk about credit spreads “blowing out” since early August, this is an important discussion to have right now.

We always trust the bond market. Throughout history, bonds have done an impeccable job at alerting investors about problems in risk asset markets. 

When there is stress in other markets, it shows up in fixed income first.

However, as technical analysts, we are mindful of the math that is behind some of the relationships we study and give weight to.

What if I told you that industrials have been massive underperformers during this bull market? 

The absolute price chart looks incredible. How could that be?

We call it the denominator fallacy. 

Benchmarked against the S&P 500 or Nasdaq 100, of course they are underperforming. 

We think there is a similar situation playing out for our bond market ratios right now.

The absolute chart up top looks great. The relative trend, down below, not so much.

...

The most significant insider activity on today's list comes via a Form 4 filing by Permian Resources Corp $PR director William J. Quinn.

Quinn revealed a purchase of PR shares with a total value of approximately $4 million.

Abdiel Capital LP just bought 43,378 shares of Appian Corporation $APPN.

Here’s The Hot Corner, with data from September 12, 2024:

Heading into this week I was anticipating a bounce. We're seeing this playout and at the same time, we're seeing some positive rotation in stocks.

I have the same exposure in the coins I've discussed in recent weeks, with some additional positions in names like MARA.

Overall, a quiet yet productive week for markets.

Gold has been getting a lot of attention lately as it presses against its highest levels in history.

This is an exciting time to be a gold enthusiast.

Just look at what the price is doing.

Here's a long-term chart of gold breaking out to new all-time highs:

After completing a decade-long base earlier this year, the price ripped higher, nearly in a vertical line, reaching the 161.8% Fibonacci extension level.

Following that rally, the price coiled in a tight pattern, absorbing some of its gains, but it’s now back on track with a strong breakout this week.

The bottom line here is that it’s...

Here's the replay and chartbook from today's stream. 

Note that we do these videos live every Thursday at 11 a.m. ET, and I answer questions in the chat room. Be sure to join us and maximize your return potential.  

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

First up is the $1.3B pet health & wellness services provider, Petco $WOOF:

We first covered Petco in June, after the retailer had its best 3-day rally in history.

With a 200% run-up in the month of May, the stock earned a few months of digestion, and that is exactly what's played out.

Last week, it rallied over 50% on the heels of earnings, sparking a new short squeeze.

With a 29% short...

In today’s Daily Digest, we’ll review the following:

1. New position in USO.
2. No adjustments are needed today.
3. Closed QQQ for a profit.
4. Current status of open campaigns.
5. NEW: Volatility Snapshot.

Let’s dig in!

I'll be Streaming LIVE TODAY at 4 p.m. ET to talk about what that 20% correction in Semiconductors means for this market, where that money is going next, why markets are usually volatile ahead of November’s election, and what exactly we’re doing to profit from it all.

Click here to join us FREE.

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There are plenty of Technology stocks that are working.

You just have to look.

Our...

The most significant insider activity on today's list comes via a Form 4 filing by Control Empresarial de Capitales SA.

The Mexico-based investment firm continues to build a position in PBF Energy Inc $PBF. This time, it made a purchase for $24 million.

AllianceBernstein LP filed an initial 13G for NCR Atleos Corp $NATL disclosing a stake of 10.2%.

Here’s The Hot Corner, with data from September 11, 2024:

We've been pounding the table about the importance of uncorrelated trades as an easy and effective strategy to reduce portfolio risk.

That was it?

We can just take our ball and go home now?

The A.I. story has come and gone and the recession that they've been telling us about all these years is finally here?

So this is a major top in Nvidia - ending the whole damn thing?

That's your bet?

And this massive top in Microsoft is exactly that - a historic top? One for the record books?

So the largest company on the planet is about to complete this 8 months of institutional distribution and is about to bring down the entire Technology sector?

Keep in mind that Nvidia and Microsoft combine for over 41% of the S&P Technology Index. (Apple is only 5% of Tech now)

Here's what I'm being told is the end for Microsoft...

Is that the bet you're making?

This is the end of the bull market?

Because I see Consumer Discretionary as the leading sector over the past month. Look at those returns, all outperforming the major averages by a long shot:

And another thing.

You know how we've been pointing out that High Beta has severely underperformed Low Volatility?

Well look at this monster whipsaw.

Keep in mind that...

Literally.

The trade today is in a company that actually makes money, minting coins. You know, the coins you drop in the pinball machine.

So, no matter how you think about it, the fundamentalists cannot say that this company does not make money. It always makes money.

Fun and word games aside, we've got a trade that has signaled the next big move and today's trading action is offering us a nice pullback in which to get involved at better prices.

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Welcome to The 2 to 100 Club.

In this scan, we look to identify the strongest growth stocks as they climb the market-cap ladder from small- to mid- to large- and, ultimately, to mega-cap status (over $200B).

Once they graduate from small-cap to mid-cap status (over $2B), they come on our radar. Likewise, when they surpass the roughly $30B mark, they roll off our list.

But the scan doesn't just end there.

We only want to look at the strongest growth industries in the market, as that is typically where these potential 50-baggers come from.

Some of the best performers in recent decades – stocks like Priceline, Amazon, Netflix, Salesforce, and myriad others – would have been on this list at some point during their journey to becoming the market behemoths they are today.

When you look at the stocks in our table, you'll notice we're only focused on Technology and Growth industry groups such as Software, Semiconductors, Online...

In today’s Daily Digest, we’ll review the following:

1. No new positions today.
2. Adjustment to XLI position.
3. No exits since the last report.
4. Current status of open campaigns.
5. NEW: Volatility Snapshot.

Let’s dig in!

The most significant insider buy on today's list comes from two Form 4 filings by the CEO and COO of Prospect Capital Corporation $PSEC.

The executives continue to purchase PSEC shares, this time combining in the amount of $3,971,250.

Here’s The Hot Corner, with data from September 10, 2024: