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Nvidia to Replace Intel in the Dow

August 27, 2024

The fact that Intel is still in the Dow Jones Industrial Average is a joke.

Intel became one of the first 2 companies that trade on the Nasdaq to be included in the Dow. That was way back in 1999 (Microsoft being the 2nd one).

But that was 25 years ago.

Times have changed.

And yet, despite the criminal underperformance from Intel since then, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed yesterday at another NEW All-time High:

Hot Corner Insider

Hot Corner Insider Weekly Report - August 27, 2024

August 27, 2024

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza and Alfonso Depablos @AlfCharts

Welcome to the Hot Corner Insider Weekly Report!

As you know, we spend a lot of time tracking insider activity to come up with this universe.

But that’s only half the battle!

Once we identify the names insiders are targeting, we overlay our expert technical analysis to see if the market agrees with their actions.

While we track some of the most powerful and well-informed market participants… we aren’t just going to follow them blindly into their trades.

We want to see that the insider activity is confirmed by the trend before we get involved. 

When we can check both boxes, we identify asymmetric risk/reward setups and then jump in and ride these trends higher alongside the smart money.

Let’s get...

Hot Corner Insider

Abdiel Capital Reports a $4 Million APPN Purchase

August 27, 2024

The most significant insider purchase on today's list comes via a Form 4 filing by Abdiel Capital LP, which revealed a purchase of roughly $4 million in Appian Corporation $APPN.

CFO John R. Rettig bought 21,124 shares of Bill.com Holdings Inc $BILL, equivalent to roughly $3 million.

Here’s The Hot Corner, with data from August 26, 2024:

 
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Gold Shines Brighter Than Commodities

August 27, 2024

Gold has not only been shining in absolute terms but is also dramatically outperforming the broader commodity complex.

While energy chops around in a multi-year range and cattle carve out a distribution pattern, the glittering ore refuses to quit printing new all-time highs.

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The Minor Leaguers (08-26-2024)

August 26, 2024

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Welcome to The Minor Leaguers.

We've had some great trades come out of this small-cap-focused column since we launched it back in 2020 and started rotating it with our flagship bottom-up scan, Under the Hood.

For the first year or so, we focused only on Russell 2000 stocks with a market cap between $1 and $2B.

That was fun, but we wanted to branch out a bit and allow some new stocks to find their way onto our list.

We expanded our universe to include some mid-caps.

Nowadays, to make the cut for our Minor Leaguers list, a company must have a market cap between $1 and $4B.

And it doesn't have to be a Russell component — it can be any US-listed equity. With participation expanding around the globe, we want all those ADRs in our universe.

The same price and liquidity filters are applied. Then, as always, we sort by proximity to new highs in order...

We call that Bull Market Breadth

August 26, 2024

We're seeing stocks go up.

In bull markets, that actually happens quite often.

We just saw new all-time highs in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P500 (market-cap weighted), S&P500 (equally-weighted), NYSE Composite Index, NYSE Advance-Decline and so much more. Check that out here.

But it's not just a U.S. thing. Look at all the other countries around the world.

This table below shows all the ACWI markets and where their prices are relative to various moving averages - ranging from short-term (10-day) up to long-term (200-day).

Notice how all the developed markets are above all of their moving averages, no matter how short-term or long-term they are:...

The World of Semiconductors

August 25, 2024

It's a big week for Semiconductors.

Nvidia, the largest of all of them by far, reports their earnings this Wednesday 8/28.

We're hosting a LIVE stream starting at 3:45PM ET Wednesday as we monitor the market's reaction to what is probably the most important earnings report of the quarter.

In fact, we think this earnings release is so important, that we put together a FREE Nvidia Earnings Preview to get you prepared for Wednesday's big event.

Again, to be clear, we're not so much interested in the numbers themselves (i.e. Revenues, EPS, etc), but it's actually how the market reacts to those earnings that we're most focused on.

And we want you to be prepared.

You can download our NVDA Earnings Preview here....

How Bearish Is This?

August 24, 2024

Imagine waking up every day trying to make up reasons for why it's bearish when the Equally-weighted S&P500 is making new all-time highs?

There are people out there who are purposely going out of their way to blatantly lie to people about how historically bearish it is when market breadth is expanding, and more and more stocks are making new highs.

It's like a weird fetish or something. These people need help.

Here's what they're so angry about and why they think the market is about to fall apart:

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The Hall of Famers (08-23-2024)

August 24, 2024

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Our Hall of Famers list is composed of the 150 largest US-based stocks.

These stocks range from the mega-cap growth behemoths like Apple and Microsoft – with market caps in excess of $2T – to some of the new-age large-cap disruptors such as Moderna, Square, and Snap.

It has all the big names and more.

It doesn’t include ADRs or any stock not domiciled in the US. But don’t worry; we developed a separate universe for that. Click here to check it out.

The Hall of Famers is simple.

We take our list of 150 names and then apply our technical filters so the strongest stocks with the most momentum rise to the top.

Let’s dive right in and check out what these big boys are up to.

Here’s this week’s list:

*Click table to enlarge view

We filter out any laggards that are down -5% or more relative to the S&P 500 over the trailing month.

Then, we sort the...

Finding The Next Nvidia - Download New Report

August 24, 2024

You guys know that I like to categorize certain things as being the "most important."

The Dow Jones Industrial Average is the world's most important index. The financial crisis highs are some of the most important levels in market history. 

And believe me when I say, semiconductors are the most important industry group in America right now, maybe even the world.

Why do I say this? Just look at the explosive growth. This is a group that just 5 years ago only had 3 companies worth more than $100 billion in market cap—Broadcom, Texas Instruments, and Taiwan Semiconductor. 

Today there are 13 semis over that threshold, including the grandaddy of them all, Nvidia. 

The growth here is so staggering, so unlike anything we have ever seen from one industry group, that we had to put together a...

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Cotton Pickin' Time

August 23, 2024

It has paid to pick our spots wisely in the commodities complex as it's been a very bifurcated asset class this cycle.

Live and Feeder Cattle are carving out distribution patterns.

Energy has been a rangebound mess.

Meanwhile, the relative strength has been in the soft commodities and precious metals.

Gold recently put the finishing touches on a multi-decade accumulation pattern.

Cocoa has resolved a 12-year base and rallied over 400% to new all-time highs.

Coffee is flirting with new multi-decade highs after completing a tactical reversal pattern.

And we're betting that Cotton will participate to the upside with the rest of the soft complex soon. The soft and fluffy commodity is on the verge of trapping the bears below a key level of polarity.

We want to continue leaning into the relative strength in soft commodities.

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[Options Premium] Buying Ourselves More Time

August 23, 2024

Back on a July 15th episode of The Flow Show, Strazza and I put on a trade in Viking Therapeutics $VKNG. You can get all the trade details here.

We still like the setup, but with September options, our original position is running out of time.

And recently, the Analysts published a report that makes me think I should roll my position further out in time:

Breakout Multiplier

Breakout Multiplier Portfolio Update: August 23, 2024

August 23, 2024

It's been over a month since we launched Breakout Multiplier, and oh boy have we been having fun!

We've navigated through some challenging market conditions, but it hasn’t stopped us from finding plenty of solid opportunities on the long side.

We've managed to secure several significant wins already. 

In this post we’ll review some of those winners and discuss how we’re handling our open positions.

We’ll do this at least once a week going forward.

Here’s our position tracker, updated as of this afternoon (click to enlarge):