Why didn't I buy this coin when it was $10?

Why did I sell early?

Why didn't I buy the dip?

Why didn't I buy more?

How did I not see the top?

These are questions almost everyone who's been involved in crypto has asked themselves and felt, at one point or another.

Some call it a lack of discipline or FOMO, but it's really all about managing future regret.

This dynamic is undoubtedly present in other asset classes too. Still, it's put on full display in this space, where people are made to believe that regularly achieving 10x baggers is a normal occurrence.

The returns people feel they can obtain by holding coins in this space are largely based on a perfectionist mindset which is both unhealthy and unrealistic.

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @Ianculley

We held our August Monthly Strategy Session last night. Premium Members can access and rewatch it here.

Non-members can get a quick recap of the call simply by reading this post each month. 

By focusing on long-term, monthly charts, the idea is to take a step back and put things into the context of their structural trends. This is easily one of our most valuable exercises as it forces us to put aside the day-to-day noise and simply examine markets from a “big-picture” point of view.

With that as our backdrop, let’s dive right in and discuss three of the most important charts and/or themes from this month’s call.

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

This All Star Charts +Plus Monthly Playbook breaks down the investment universe into a series of largely binary decisions and tactical calls. Paired with our Weight of the Evidence Dashboard, this piece is designed to help active asset allocators follow trends, pursue opportunities, and manage risk.

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @Ianculley

Was that it for the recent bounce in the US dollar?

A little more than a month ago, we began to see broad-based strength in USD emerge on both a short and intermediate-term basis. 

Since then, it’s been the central theme in currency markets. 

But we're starting to see signs that this near-term US dollar dominance could be fading as bulls have had ample opportunity to push the USD higher in recent months but have made little progress. 

The lack of follow-through can be seen in our long USD trade ideas from late June, as most are not working. We recently saw many crosses reach our risk level, but price rebounded instead of triggering an entry. The EUR/USD is a great example of this. 

One exception is...

Let me make something perfectly clear.

I'm confident that fundamentals are what drives the price of assets.

You also cannot argue against the fact that those prices regularly trend over time.

So Technical Analysis allows us to identify those trends, and profit from them, if that's something that you're into.

For us, we're certainly profit enthusiasts.

That's why we focus on Technical Analysis.

It's often said that patience pays dividends.

Of course, in the crypto world these adages don't make too much sense. So, just like how we say that "Tether's a position too," in crypto it can be said that "patience pays sats."

But all jokes aside, Bitcoin has fallen back below 41,000, placing prices right back into this range. With Bitcoin below this level, new longs are likely to stumble in the coming days/weeks.

At least in the near term, some level of patience is warranted.

So while we're anticipating we ultimately resolve higher, the only question that remains is "how long?"

This is the video recording of our August 2, 2021 Monthly Charts Live Strategy Session

From the desk of Steve Strazza @sstrazza

This is one of our favorite bottoms-up scans: Follow The Flow. In this note, we simply create a universe of stocks that experienced the most unusual options activity — either bullish or bearish… but NOT both.

We utilize options experts, both internally and through our partnership with The TradeXchange. Then, we dig through the level 2 details and do all the work upfront for our clients. Our goal is to isolate only those options market splashes that represent levered and high-conviction, directional bets.

We also weed out hedging activity and ensure there are no offsetting trades that either neutralize or cap the risk on these unusual options trades. What remains is a list of stocks that large financial institutions are putting big money behind… and they’re doing so for one reason only: Because they think the stock is about to move in their direction and make them a pretty...

From the desk of Steven Strazza @Sstrazza

Check out our latest Mystery Chart!

What we do here is take a chart that’s captured our attention, and remove the x and y-axes as well as any other labels that could help identify it.

This chart can be any security, in any asset class, on any timeframe. Sometimes, it’s an absolute price chart. Other times, it’s on a relative basis.

It might be a ratio, a custom index, or maybe the price is inverted. It could be all three!

The point is, when we aren’t able to recognize what’s in front of us, we put aside any biases we may have and scrutinize the price behavior objectively.

While you can try to guess the chart, the point is to make a decision…

So let us know what it is… Buy, Sell, or Do Nothing?

Key Takeaway: Indexes chopping higher, breadth chopping lower. Commodities leading the pack in 2021. Bonds not fearing inflation.

• Health Care made a new high last week and that helped fuel its rise in our relative strength rankings (up to the fourth spot and into the leadership group). Energy and Materials also ticked higher in the rankings, while Consumer Discretionary fell three spots.
• Despite an overall theme of large-cap strength, the industry group heat map shows deteriorating conditions across sizes for the Energy and Banks groups.

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Welcome to our latest "Minor Leaguers" report.

We've already had some great trades come out of this small cap-focused column since we launched it late last year and started rotating it with our flagship bottoms-up scan, "Under The Hood."

To make the cut for our Minor Leagues list, a company must have a market cap between $1 and $2B. There are also price and liquidity filters. Then, we simply sort by proximity to new highs in order to focus on the best players.

The goal is to catch the strongest names while they’re small and still have serious upside potential. If any of these stocks ever climbs the ranks to the big leagues, the returns could be huge. We’re looking at 5-10x moves just to break into large-cap land!

Let’s dive into this week’s report and see what’s happening in some of...

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Check out this week’s Momentum Report, our weekly summation of all the major indexes at a Macro, International, Sector, and Industry Group level.

By analyzing the short-term data in these reports, we get a more tactical view of the current state of markets. This information then helps us put near-term developments into the context of the big picture and provides insights regarding the structural trends at play.

Let’s jump right into it with some of the major takeaways from this week’s report:

* ASC Plus Members can access the Momentum Report by clicking the link at the bottom of this post.

• Our Macro universe performance was mixed this week as only 62% of our list closed higher with a median return of 0.22%.
• The biggest winner of the week was the Volatility Index $VIX which gained 6.05%.
• 10-Year Yield $TNX shows continued weakness as this week’s biggest loser, dropping -3.65%.
• Momentum remains constructive from a structural perspective, as 60% of the assets on our macro list are in a bullish momentum regime....

There's a reason long-time investors are invested in low volatility household names that pay steady dividends: because over the long run, they work! The steady dividends and low volatility can be counted on to take care of us in retirement. This is a lesson I've been trying to teach my 7-year old Son. We created a small account for him and we're teaching him the power of investing in what you know (or in our case, in companies we spend money on as a family) and in companies that pay dividends which teaches the power of compounding.

One of those names we're invested in is also now showing up on All Star Charts momentum scans and may be set to accelerate its price price action.

This is the video recording of the August Options Conference Call with Sean McLaughlin & JC Parets.

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Our Top 10 report was just published. In this weekly note, we highlight 10 of the most important charts or themes we're currently seeing in asset classes around the world.

One of the biggest things the bears have going for them right now is the fact that the 10-Year Yield is trapped beneath the critical 1.40% level. As long as that remains the case, the trend is lower for rates, and higher for US Treasuries. But we want to stay keenly aware of any signs of a trend reversal as we continue to see a barrage of mixed signals when it comes to risk appetite around the globe.

In the chart below we’re looking at an island reversal formation in the 30-Year which recently sent the yield back above its key 1.90% level. Why are we looking at the 30-year? Don’t we usually use the 5-Year as a leading indicator? As always, the tools we want to use boil down to the kind of market we’re in. Right now yields are trending lower while spreads are contracting. This tells us that the long end of the curve is moving at a faster rate than the short end. For this reason, we’re...

Regardless of the market environment, we always want to be pushing our bets on secular leaders.

The most effective way of positioning ourselves with the strongest (or weakest) names is through relative strength analysis - by simply comparing names to their counterparts.

So before we dive into all some of the names we're buying, let's address where this space finds itself, and what we're anticipating in the coming weeks and months.