The Fixed Income, Commodity, and Currency markets are near and dear to my heart. Ever since I began learning Technical Analysis, I've always loved analyzing things that are "off the beaten path." This included everything from Interest Rates to Soybeans to the Norwegian Krone. Equities are great and all, but this is the stuff that gets me up in the morning.
In addition to the blog posts we do on the site, I've wanted to explore new ways to share that passion with you all and show why even if you're not investing in these markets directly, they're worth paying attention to.
That brings us to my weekly show, "What The FICC?"
In this weekly video series, I'll be highlighting the most important chart or theme from these three asset classes while doing my best to tie that analysis back to Equities through an intermarket signal or a trade idea.
So is this two-day selloff a start of something new? Or is this a gift from the Pullback Gods to get into those longs positions you were FOMO-ing about?
Energy stocks and Crude Oil have been trending in opposite directions over the trailing three months.
We know these kinds of intermarket relationships can dislocate for extended periods of time, but some recent developments in the space have us thinking it may be time for this divergence to correct itself... and it's likely to come in the form of Crude catching down as opposed to stocks catching up.
In this post, we'll reveal this week's Mystery Chart and discuss what the recent action in Oil could mean for Energy stocks in the weeks/months ahead.
Two weeks ago on "What The FICC?" I discussed the potential long-term trend change in Agricultural Commodities and the vehicles to take advantage of it.
It's true that August was a good month for Lean Hogs, Corn, Cocoa, Soybean Oil, and others, but in this post, I want to temper expectations about what we should expect going further.
This week I was a guest on the Confessions of a Market Maker Podcast. This was a really fun discussion about Dow Theory, Perma-Bears, Fibonacci & optimal wine/food pairings. I think it will give you a chance to get to me a little more. Life isn't just about charts and markets!
It's been a monster run since March for equities, especially in the United States. Rotation, breadth expansion, momentum thrusts, all the works.
So what's going to stop this train? The opposite of those things, most likely.
I think the bear case starts with small-caps. I was taught to dance with the girl who brought me to the dance. Small-caps were one of the key reasons why we got so bearish in early October 2018 and then again this year in early February 2020.
So why ignore them now? I say stick with that.
As we discussed last night on our Monthly Charts Strategy Session (Premium), if you're going to be shorting stocks and betting on the end, I think both Small-caps and Micro-caps need to be below their June highs:
There are a lot of distractions in the market, particularly when it comes to news events that drive a stock quickly in one direction or another.
In this post, we want to look at the example of Reliance and Future Retail Ltd. to reiterate why it's best to focus on process rather than outcome when it comes to markets.
One of the names that stood out for me in the latest Under the Hood report, was unsuspecting. These days I expect the names that are popping up there to be the sexy tech high flyers and/or cheaper low cap speculative names. But a certain name with a pretty popular cheerleader caught my attention.
If I was a long holder of big positions in $AAPL, $AMZN, $TSLA, $FB, $GOOG — any of the teracaps…. I’d be selling way OTM covered calls like a wild man here.#SKEW
Covered Calls is not a strategy we employ often at All Star Options, as there are better more efficient ways to use our capital to express similar bets.
But for any of you reading this who may be holding legacy long...
Welcome to Episode 2 of the JC & Josh Brown show that he likes to call, "Big Trends Monthly". This is where we discuss a handful of the most important monthly charts that stood out during my review.
I'm always preaching how this is probably the most valuable part of my entire process: Monthly Charts! It's only something I have to do 12 times a year and might take me 30-45 minutes each month. This forces us to take a step back and gives us no choice but to identify the directions of the primary trends.
Josh Brown is one of the most widely followed financial advisors in the country, and he appreciates these monthly candles as much as anyone. So we're now doing a monthly show about it. You can catch up on last month's episode here.
Check out latest show where we discuss what happened in August and what it means to us moving forward:
Welcome to this week’s edition of Louis’ Look, where I write a brief note for the blog to identify the key lessons I’m learning every week. You can catch up on the previous post here. Today, I want to share what I’ve been thinking about psychology and its relation to technical analysis.
For those new to the exercise, we take a chart of interest and remove the x/y-axes and any other labels that would help identify it. The chart can be any security in any asset class on any timeframe on an absolute or relative basis. Maybe it’s a custom index or inverted, who knows!
We do all this to put aside the biases we have associated with this specific security/the market and come to a conclusion based solely on price.
You can guess what it is if you must, but the real value comes from sharing what you would do right now. Buy,Sell, or Do Nothing?
This week on the show, Howard and I talk about a really cool new scan that we've been working on here internally. You see, we do a ton of top/down analysis at Allstarcharts. So we've developed a series of bottoms/up filters to help supplement all that top/down work that we already do. This way, it makes it really hard for us to miss anything.
We recorded this video a couple of weeks ago and have already made a lot of progress on this concept of "2 to 100". We're looking for stocks graduating from Small-cap and entering Mid-cap status ($2B+ Market Cap). We'll be putting out more information on this particular universe of stock ideas soon, but for now check out how a friendly conversation can turn into a new valuable tool in a matter of weeks!