I'm back from a 2-week trip to Asia and it's almost like nothing has changed. Stocks are hitting all-time highs, so many people are trying to be cute calling for a top and the gold bugs are angry. The difference is that now the Small-caps have finally broken out of a 10-month base to new all-time highs. This goes for the Small-cap Russell2000 Index, S&P Small-cap 600 Index and the Russell Micro-cap Index. These indexes have done nothing in almost a year. Can you imagine the nerve of some people to call the US Stock Market "Stretched" or "Too far too soon" (whatever that means), when some of the most important indexes are just now breaking out of 10-month bases? Too far too soon? They've gone no where for 10 months? Are you kidding me?

It's like I'm talking to a wall sometimes. Too Stretched? Are we looking at the same market?

We talk about a lot of different markets here and we use a lot of different information to come up with a thesis. We look at International Stock Markets, Interest Rates, Sector Rotation, Individual Stocks, Breadth Measurements, Currencies, Commodities and an endless supply of Intermarket Ratios. But today I want to talk about a breakout that we've been waiting for now for some time.

I've been using Investopedia.com for as long as I can remember. Especially early in my career, whenever I had a question about the market or didn't know what something meant, Investopedia was always there to help. Whether it was a simple definition or I just needed an explanation on something more complicated, this website been a reliable source of educational material throughout my many years in this business.

Today, I am excited to announce that I have partnered up with the amazing people at Investopedia to launch their first ever Technical Analysis Course! It is such an honor for me to be a part of this incredible company. It's like my career has come full circle. This is so cool! You can go through all of the videos and supplemental information at your own pace. That's the best part!

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You guys have spoken. It is clear how little value you're getting from the data miners.

I'm really lucky that I get to speak with investors all over the world on a daily basis. Some are Technicians just like me, but most are not. You guys are Financial Advisors, Traders at Hedge Funds & Mutual Funds, Portfolio Managers and Family Offices. You're in the business of making money in the market. A lot of you aren't even professionals but still fall in that same category of trying to profit in the market.

I've learned to be a good listener. Your ears will never get you in trouble. You guys email me and ask me questions. I ask questions right back. I'm winning too in this deal, remember? It's a two-way street. In a lot of cases, you guys are much smarter than I am. Members of Allstarcharts include Traders swinging serious money and representatives from pretty much all of the biggest Broker Dealers on the planet. We're not penny stock promoters lying to young kids about becoming millionaires so we can travel and party with pretty girls. If you're reading this it's because...

Are stocks in the 9th year of a bull market? No. Not even close. I would argue we might even be in the first year. You can see some of my list of reasons outlined here in Modern Trader Magazine earlier this year. Another major component of what I consider to be a structural bull market is a relative outperformance compared with other assets. When we're looking at U.S. stocks, I think the obvious comparison is vs U.S. Treasury Bonds.

Today we're taking a look at the S&P500 ETF $SPY vs the U.S. Treasury Bonds ETF $TLT. The comparison is very simple: Stocks or Bonds? One argument I can make why we're not even through the first year of this structural bull market is because we have gone absolutely no where since 2007 relative to Treasuries. This has been a dead money trade for a decade. Late last year the ratio did break out to new highs, signaling to us that this was the beginning of a new move higher after 10 years of consolidation since that historic top in 2007, not the end:

There are no short cuts guys. There is no magic indicator that will tell you when to buy and sell stocks, or any other security out there, yes even Bitcoin. The best way to see what's happening in the market and weigh all the evidence, is to actually weigh all of the evidence! It's not a secret formula. You just have to put in the work, or trust someone that does that work for you consistently and thoroughly.

I'm really lucky that Members of Allstarcharts come from all over the world just to see my homework. A lot of them come to me for trade ideas, but just as many come for my Global Macro context. Of course, most are here for both. I've heard from so many Members over the years, either over the phone, in person for beers or just through email conversations. The value they get from their membership depends on a lot of things. Many are traders at hedge funds, portfolio managers, financial advisors and family offices. Some Members are retired investors or in many cases younger investors first getting into the business....

Jonathan Krinsky is a great compliment to the guests we have already had on Technical Analysis Radio. His Intermarket and top/down approach is very well rounded and consistent. In this podcast episode, Jonathan explains how his mentor Phil Roth helped point him in the right direction earlier in his career, particularly during the 2008 Financial crisis. In this discussion we talk about US and Global Stocks, Interest Rates, Gold, Silver and Crude Oil. Sectors mentioned include Financials, Technology, Biotechnology and Energy. I really enjoyed this conversation!

One of the best ways to get a gauge of the strength or weakness in the U.S. Stock Market is to go through all of the stocks in the indexes. Every week I rip through all 500 stocks in the S&P500 on both weekly and daily timeframes. This works well for 2 reasons: 1) it gives me a great idea of how the entire market looks collectively, but it also allows me to find individual risk vs reward opportunities throughout the market. It works great for both.

For people who simply don't have the time, or interest, to get that deep into market analysis, I find the Dow 30 review to be really helpful. If you take a look at a chart of the Dow Jones Industrial Average going back 100 years and overlay it with the S&P500, they look pretty much the same. So if their correlations are that high, then going through the Dow 30 components on both weekly and daily timeframes is a much more efficient use of time.

First of all, these are 30 of the most important stocks in America, so that by definition makes them 30 of the most important in the world. Second, we want to take a weight-of-the-evidence approach here and ask ourselves, Are there more good ones or bad ones? ...

Peter Brandt has successfully traded in 5 different decades using classic Technical Analysis principles that date back to the 1930s and 40s. In this conversation Peter goes over his selection process and strict risk management procedures. With a primary goal of capital preservation, Peter uses the leverage available in the futures and forex markets to position himself into low risk opportunities that also offer a high reward. We talk about the current environment for Stocks, Interest Rates and Commodities. Within the futures and forex space, Peter discusses his current outlook on Gold, Silver, Crude Oil, Canadian Dollar and Agriculture-related assets like Soybean Meal, Wheat and Sugar. In this podcast episode, Peter shares with us how he uses the Commitment of Traders report to supplement what he is seeing in the behavior of price. We are lucky to have almost a full hour with one of  the best traders I know!

You will find that Gold is a sensitive subject for many people. They behave differently than they normally do around this topic. My friend Dr. Phil has me reading Beck's work on Cognitive Behavior Therapy so I can continue learning about how we behave as humans and why. It's amazing how I see it specifically in the market but also in the rest of the world every day. The Gold Market is no different. There's definitely something there. If you've been in this business long enough, you've noticed how people act differently about this one specific investment. Even investors who don't have positions in this rock still have an opinion on it and one that steers away from their traditional approach.

It's fascinating and I've been studying this for many years. I'm lucky that some of my predecessors who ultimately turned into mentors of mine used to price stocks and other assets in Gold terms. When I was a lot younger, this really helped me think more logically with respect to money flow around the world. Those early lessons have helped to this day. I have Gold to thank for...

Every month I host a conference call for All Star Charts Premium Members where we discuss ongoing themes throughout the global marketplace as well as changes in trends where new positions would be most appropriate. This includes U.S. Stocks & Sectors, International Stock Indexes, Commodities, Currencies and Interest Rate Markets.

We've been bullish towards US and Global Stocks as they remain in strong uptrends on any sort of intermediate-term time horizon. I still think this is an environment where we need to be buying weakness in stocks, not selling strength. The weight of the evidence is still pointing to an increased amount of risk appetite, not risk aversion. We will go over a multi-timeframe approach on this conference call where we will start with the longer-term and then work our way down to more short-term to intermediate-term investing ideas. This will also include other assets like Gold, Silver, Crude Oil and Interest Rates.

I'll do my best to lay out my weight of the evidence conclusions and walk you step by step with how I got there! This month's Conference Call will be...

The monthly charts aren't saying anything. Charts can't speak remember? It's up to us to take the behavior of the market and come up with our own interpretations of what is going on. There is no easy way to do this, just a lot of wrong ways. To help us continue to stay on the right side of the market, we always need to reevaluate the circumstances and come at it from all sorts of different angles. Usually we try and do that by incorporating International Indexes and Intermarket relationships into our process. Time, however, is probably the best tool we have in order to accomplish this. Using multiple timeframes throughout my process is the best way I know how to identify the direction of the primary trend. It's hard to miss it when you're consistently using Daily, Weekly and in this case, Monthly charts in your approach.

I have a lot of Monthly charts, as you can imagine. But the truth is that for this particular segment I try and focus on the message of the charts as a group. This exercise also really helps point out certain trends that you may have missed had you only gone back 5-10 years. These monthly candlesticks also tend to tell a story. So there are a lot of...

Tuesday was a special day for us stock market participants. We don't always have such a spectacular display of completed Bullish Engulfings on a single day. It was an amazing thing to watch. Last night I could barely sleep. I just wanted to come back and make sure that actually happened. Man, what a rush!

For those of you who are less enthusiastic about Bullish Engulfings, or "outside days" as they call them in the West, these things don't happen too often, and there are even fewer instances where they all take place in unison. We're pretty stoked about it, I gotta tell you. What we're referring to here specially is the fact that yesterday, the lows of the day in many cases were below the prior day's lows, but the highs and closing prices were both above the prior day's high. The double extreme here is evidence of an overwhelming amount of demand relative to supply. Here is what it looks like:

Brian Shannon is one of the first Technicians that I ever followed. I used to watch his YouTube videos as far back as 2006. Brian is a pioneer in Technical Analysis in the Social Media era. His book Technical Analysis Using Multiple Timeframes is one of the most important books I've ever read. In this episode @alphatrends walks us through his multi-timeframe approach and how that can be incorporated into your process regardless of time horizon. We discuss the current U.S. Stock Market environment including price behavior and sentiment. Since Brian is one of the highest authorities on the subject of Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP) we couldn't help ourselves but get into the subject at length. This was a great conversation with someone who has been a mentor to a lot of us over many years.

You can data-mine all you want. Tell me the world is ending, the U.S. President is crazy, nuclear war is around the corner, the N.Y. Jets don't have a quarterback.....Whatever it is that you're using to justify your heavy cash positions or short exposure the past 18 months, just remember this: Stocks are hitting all-time highs. Let's go over this again: Stocks are not just hitting multi-month highs, or even 52-week highs. Stocks that are driven by supply and demand dynamics of investors all over the world are at the highest levels in the history of stocks.

So how do we define stocks? That's the tricky part. Is it the S&P500? Although it's only 1.4% away from an all-time high, and clearly in a strong uptrend defined by higher highs and higher lows, I would argue that it's only part of the equation. What about the Russell3000, which represents approximately 98% of all investable assets in the U.S. equities market? Although just 1.7% from its all-time high, it is still just representing 1 country. There has to be a better way.

The Dow Jones Transportation Average has been one of the best leading indicators for the direction of markets over the past few years. This index peaked in late 2014, six months before the S&P500 put in its top. The Transportation Average also bottomed out in January 2016, the month before the S&P500 finally made its bottom. Moving forward, we want to continue to give this index the weighting it deserves.

With the recent underperformance out of this group, let's dive in and see what is going on underneath the surface. Is this the beginning of a major sell-off in Transports, which would lead the rest of the market lower? Or has this just been a correction within a strong uptrending market?

It's hard to keep your emotions out of your portfolio decisions. Throughout evolution, the way we are built is to be horrible investors because we're hard-wired to make the exact opposite decision to what is right simply if our emotions are running high. That's just science. I've read a lot about this and discussed it with Doctors. It's a fascinating subject, particularly for someone who is interested in the behavior of markets. The first step to recovery is understanding that we have a problem right? We're designed to be terrible investors. After recognizing this flaw of ours, it is now our duty as savers and investors to either be able to put those emotions aside somehow or, in our case, try to take advantage of the majority of people around us who do not recognize this flaw and continue to make the same mistakes. Computers or not, Algos or not, there is a tremendous arbitrage there.

I remember throughout 2008 I would wake up every day hoping for horrible things to occur because I was short Banks and S&Ps. It made me feel sick to my stomach. I was early too. We starting getting really short in the first...

The way I learned it was that the Bond Market is smarter than the Stock Market. I've heard theories that it's because the Bond Traders are smarter than stock jockeys. Maybe it's because the Bond market is a lot bigger than the Stock Market. Maybe it's all a bunch of nonsense. Who knows? The way I like to approach it is simply to use them both to my advantage equally. They both play a role in the process. When we see evidence of risk appetite in the stock market, we want to see the bond market confirming that and vice versa. It's when one is suggesting one thing and the other is signaling something else that we start to question what is really going on here.

Today we're going to focus on 3 specific spreads that we want to be watching closely here as the Summer comes to an end.

Every market environment is different. It's changing every day. What might give us insight into what's happening during one period of time in the market doesn't guarantee that it will help in the future, or ever again for that matter. Back in 2008-2009, correlations spiked all over the world and the US Dollar was moving in the exact opposite direction as the S&P500. Watching the Euro and more specifically the Euro/Yen was a huge advantage back them. I remember it like it was yesterday. But in today's environment, those negative correlations are no longer valid. It's a different market environment now. It's always different.

So while the EUR/JPY and the US Dollar Index were great tells for the direction of US Stocks in 2008, today we're looking at different indicators. Two that I'm particularly focused on right now are Germany and London. First of all, these are 2 of the most important indexes in the world. Top 3? Top 5? Either way, both of them are on the Mount Rushmore of Stock Market Indexes.

Every month I host a conference call for All Star Charts Premium Members where we discuss ongoing themes throughout the global marketplace as well as changes in trends where new positions would be most appropriate. This includes U.S. Stocks & Sectors, International Stock Indexes, Commodities, Currencies and Interest Rate Markets.

We've been bullish towards US and Global Stocks once again since May. I still think this is an environment where we need to be buying weakness in stocks, not selling strength. The weight of the evidence is still pointing to an increased amount of risk appetite, not risk aversion. I ran through all 1000 charts of the S&P500 stocks on both weekly and daily timeframes and there are more good ones than bad ones. A lot more good ones, in fact. It's hard for me to fight that.

I'll do my best to lay out my weight of the evidence conclusions and walk you step by step with how I got there! This month's Conference Call will be held on Monday August 21st at...

It's the middle of the summer and everything is quiet. Even the slightest bit of volatility brings in the panic. It's pretty amazing to watch. There are two schools of thought here. First, the historic short positions in S&P500 Volatility Index Futures have their monthly unwind, and stocks get adjusted accordingly. It's a volatility trade unwinding causing these 1 or 2 day spikes. But then the shorts come back in, make money for a period of time and then get swept out again, like this week. The cycle repeats. Now we move on again and volatility shorts crush it for the rest of the summer. That's thesis 1.

The other scenario is that there is a lot more squeeze behind this one and stocks can have a much bigger and longer adjustment. Take a look at the C.O.T. Reports. The numbers are outrageous. These Volatility shorts are natural buyers of volatility. It's scary when you think about it. But regardless, they stay short. It is what it is. Stocks continue to shake them off. But is this time different?

We're going to try and answer that question by going through 1000 charts of the S&P500. Each of the 500 components of the index on both a weekly and daily...

One of the most classic characteristics of markets that are not trending higher is when momentum is getting oversold. Markets in uptrends don't get oversold. They get overbought! Think about it: How can an overwhelming amount of buyers possibly be a bad thing?

I understand there are some strategies that wait for oversold conditions in their indicators to trigger buying opportunities and other things like that. That's cool. But when I am referring to momentum, I am specifically describing a 14-period RSI. For today's discussion we'll focus more on 14-day RSI for this specific timeframe. If we were having a longer-term conversation, we would be looking at a 14-week RSI on a chart that goes back decades. Currently, the weekly chart is in a bullish range, so that is not in question. Today we're focused on the coming months and quarters.

The Relative Strength Index (or RSI) is a momentum Oscillator. All that means is that it ranges from 0 to 100. Oversold conditions are when RSI falls below 30, and over bought conditions are when RSI gets above 70. While other people use different momentum indicators, RSI is the one for me. ...