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Alfonso’s Daily Note

Record Week for China

September 27, 2024

Chinese equities are surging like never before in history.

The iShares China Large-Cap ETF $FXI rallied over 18%, marking its best week ever.

We call this a "momentum thrust". Such extreme readings often precede rallies and tend to occur at the beginning of new bull cycles.

Here's the FXI chart with the 1-week rate of change in the lower pane:

 

As you can see, this is happening after a test of a critical support level, right at a shelf of former lows.

In addition, price is reclaiming the VWAP from the 2021 highs, which means bulls are back in control for the first time since then.

One thing we know for sure is that seeing the most beaten-down areas of the market spring back to life with such vigor is not a bearish development.

In fact, I think it’s time to embrace these high beta stocks.

They are on the rise.

And as technicians, we want to take advantage of these new uptrends.

Just look at what Sean McLaughlin,...

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ASC Mastermind

ASC Mastermind Lab: Understanding True Diversification with Chris Cain

September 27, 2024

Below is the first ASC Mastermind Lab Course. These are special videos that will be made available throughout the duration of the 12-week course featuring conversations with professionals from across Wall Street discussing topics in their expertise. 

If you watched the first Mastermind class on Defining Personal Objectives, you heard me talk about diversification. Well, meet Chris Cain. Chris is the U.S. Quantitative Equity Strategist for Bloomberg Intelligence, a division of Bloomberg LP, and he literally studies diversification. 

Chris and I discussed mathematics behind diversification, and how diversification can impact your long-term returns more than you even know. 

Enjoy this conversation. 

 

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All Star Charts Gold Rush

China Ripping? Buy Copper

September 27, 2024

Have you heard about China?

Chinese stocks just had their best week in history, following the People's Bank of China's (PBOC) announcement of rate cuts, among other stimulative actions.

In July, we talked about Copper and its base and industrial metal peers showing broad weakness. But that seems to be changing...

China is the world's largest consumer of refined copper, so base and industrial metals have benefited from the recent pivot from the PBOC.

Chinese stocks and copper futures have been positively correlated for years:

 

The 200-day rolling correlation flipped negative earlier this year but is positive again and has recently been screaming higher toward its highest positive correlation in history.

This week, the China Large-Cap ETF $FXI decisively broke a multi-year downtrend line and entered a new primary uptrend.

If the path of least resistance is higher for Chinese stocks, the 29th element should also catch a bid.

Earlier this year, Gold broke out to new all-time highs, but Copper...

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Risk vs. Reward for the Bond Trade

September 27, 2024

Despite the gloomy headlines the market received this summer, major stock market sectors are showing resilience across the board, with new signs of life emerging. 

A shift seems to be on the horizon.

At the moment, we are long bonds. We like bonds, and the charts tell us we are right to like bonds here, but what does the future hold?

If inflation starts ticking up again, the market usually pivots toward the reflation trade—favoring sectors like energy, small caps, and financials as rates rise. (I am not saying that this is happening. I am saying that we need to keep an eye on this.) 

Energy has not participated in the bull run this year. When we compare XLE to some of the best stocks this cycle, like XLK, the performance gap is wild.

The chart below shows XLK up roughly 40% over the trailing 12 months while XLE is negative.

Meanwhile, the rally in bonds appears to be slowing down. 

 

Bonds have a traditionally inverse relationship with energy stocks, so we think this further sets the stage for a catch-up trade from oil and gas.

Oil...

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International Hall of Famers (09-27-2024)

September 27, 2024

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Our International Hall of Famers list is composed of the 100 largest US-listed international stocks, or ADRs.

We've also sprinkled in some of the largest ADRs from countries that did not make the market cap cut. 

These stocks range from some well-known mega-cap multinationals such as Toyota Motor and Royal Dutch Shell to some large-cap global disruptors such as Sea Ltd and Shopify.

It's got all the big names and more–but only those that are based outside the US. You can find all the largest US stocks on our original Hall of Famers list.

The beauty of these scans is really in their simplicity.

We take the largest names each week and then apply technical filters in a way that the strongest stocks with the most momentum rise to the top.

Based on the market environment, we can also flip the scan on its head and filter for weakness.

Let's dive in and take a look at some of the most important stocks from...

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[Options P2P] Daily Digest 9/27/24

September 27, 2024

In today’s Daily Digest, we’ll review the following:

  1. No new positions today.
  2. Rolled XLC position to November options.
  3. No positions were exited since the last report.
  4. Current status of open campaigns.
  5. Volatility Snapshot.

Let’s dig in!

Hot Corner Insider

Rep. Greg Landsman of Ohio Is Buying ANET

September 27, 2024

The most notable insider activity on today's list comes via a Periodic Transaction Report filing by Rep. Greg Landsman of Ohio.

Landsman revealed a purchase worth between $15,000 to $50,000 in Arista Networks Inc $ANET.

Here’s The Hot Corner, with data from September 26, 2024:

 
The Strazza Letter

Asia Has Arrived

September 26, 2024

Last summer, Sean and I toured Southeast Asia and gave presentations at CMT events in seven different countries.

I was lucky enough to learn firsthand about the local companies, the nuances of their financial markets, and the compelling growth stories that are playing out in this exciting region of the world.

I fell in love with some of the places I visited.

In countries like Vietnam, Malaysia, and the Philippines… you could literally see it. You could feel it in the air. You could hear it in the voices of the people we met and had conversations with. It was an exhilarating experience.

The runways for these countries to keep growing and eventually play a larger role in the world economy was obvious. The investment opportunity seemed massive.

I was all in on emerging Asia. It was a no-brainer.

But, there was one big problem…

The charts were not telling this story of growth and prosperity. These countries were all trading around new lows.

I was telling the same joke at every new CMT meeting when I got to the segment about local markets. I only had good news for our friends in Japan.

Everywhere else, I would spend 30 minutes...

Breakout Multiplier

We’re Bullish Bicycles

September 26, 2024
This post was originally for paid members only. It has since been unlocked for informational purposes and does not constitute financial advice. 

If you're not a member, sign up here.

Following a nasty drawdown from the all-time highs made back in 2021, Peloton Interactive $PTON is coiling at the upper bounds of a textbook bearish-to-bullish reversal pattern.

An upside resolution from the past month's trading range will confirm a new primary uptrend for this battered growth stock.

Here’s the chart:

 

Peloton is sporting a 20% short interest and 4x days to cover ratio, which means if we get the move we’re looking for, it should be a big one.

What we’re doing here is simple. Let’s walk through it.

The worst stocks, the cycle laggards, the non-participators, the most-heavily shorted names… they are all working out here...

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[Options P2P] Daily Digest 9/26/24

September 26, 2024

In today’s Daily Digest, we’ll review the following:

  1. No new positions today.
  2. Adjustment to XME position.
  3. No positions were exited since the last report.
  4. Current status of open campaigns.
  5. Volatility Snapshot.

Let’s dig in!

Hot Corner Insider

Liberty 77 Reports a $3.6 Million LGF Purchase

September 26, 2024

The most notable insider activity on today's list comes via a Form 4 filing by Liberty 77 Fund L.P.

The private equity firm reported a purchase of $3.6 million in Lions Gate Entertainment Corp $LGF.

Here’s The Hot Corner, with data from September 25, 2024:

 
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Junior International Hall of Famers (09-26-2024)

September 25, 2024

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Welcome to The Junior International Hall of Famers.

With the goal of finding more bullish setups, we have decided to expand one of our favorite scans and broaden our regular coverage of the largest US-listed international stocks, or ADRs.

This scan is composed of the next 100 largest stocks by market cap, those that come after the top 100 and are thus covered by the International Hall of Famers universe.

Many of these names will someday graduate and join our original International Hall Of Famers list. The idea here is to catch these big trends as early on as possible.

Let’s dive right in and check out what these future big boys are up to.

This is our Junior International Hall of Famers list:

 

Click table to enlarge view

And here’s how we arrived at it…

We removed laggards which are down 5% or more relative to the ACWI Ex. U.S. Index $ACWX over the trailing month.

Then we sorted...