The bond market has been fascinating lately for sure. Sentiment has been in one direction while price has gone in the complete opposite. Everyone seems to expect rates to rise and therefore bonds to fall. Position data certainly suggests that - the Commercial Hedgers have had a historic net long position. In other words, while the crowd assumes rates are going higher, the smart money is betting on the complete opposite happening. The ultimate arbiter, of course, is price. So today we want to take a look at what the intermarket components of the bond market are suggesting about the future of interest rates.

This morning I had a chance to sit down and chat with the good folks over at Benzinga. I've been doing interviews with Joel and Dennis for years. They've done a nice job of getting some really good guests on here consistently so it's great to be a part of that group.

Today we discuss U.S. Markets, Interest Rates, Silver, US Dollar and the growth in India's stock market. Here is the audio in full:

We're in the market to make money. It should not matter whether that money is made in Energy stocks, Technology, U.S. Equities, European or Chinese. The point is to find opportunities as they come, wherever they come from. I think as we progress into 2017 it is becoming very clear to me that we need to be focused on what is going on in India. Whether we're looking at the currency or the stock market, something interesting is happening here and I think it would be irresponsible of us to ignore.

I'm in New York City this week attending a couple of investing conferences so I went by the Nasdaq to chat with Business News Network about the current market environment. I've been consistently bullish since last year with an upside target in the S&P500 near 2335 and that objective was achieved last month. Now we're starting to see the breadth of momentum deteriorating on the most recent highs. The 2.3% level in the U.S. 10-year yield is the big area we're watching. I think the resolution here in rates will tell us a lot about risk appetite for stocks as we enter the second quarter.

Here is the interview in full (requires flash player):

Last week the Nasdaq100 went out at new all-time weekly closing highs. While that might seem like a bullish characteristic on the surface, I think it's important to recognize what is happening within the actual index itself. Like I always try and reiterate, this is not a "stock market", it is a market of stocks. Today we're going to take a look at what is actually going on here.

This is JC's Playbook to Profit In Q2:

One of the most important tools we have as technicians is the ability to measure momentum. Remember, buy side fund managers are obsessed with looking for stocks and assets showing momentum. They hate sitting in things that aren't doing anything. Whether you're a buy side fund manager or not, it's important to think this way. Opportunity cost (where else you can invest that money) is important too. Looking for stocks with bullish momentum characteristics is something we want to do when markets are in an uptrend. When momentum starts to fade, it's a heads up that price is likely to follow.

Today I want to focus particular attention on the breadth of momentum. We want to approach this as a market of stocks, not a stock market. There are many components that drive these indexes, sometime more than others depending on the index. We can focus on particular areas like energy or financials, or different market caps large or small. I also want to know how momentum in the entire market is doing: Are we seeing positive momentum characteristics or negative ones?

I'm sure by now you've had the time to digest the never ending headlines about an 8-year anniversary of a bull market for the S&P500. The problem with all of them is that the S&P500 has NOT been in a bull market for 8 years. In fact, there is a very strong argument to make that it could have just hit its one-year anniversary. Also, let's remember the motivations of the people who are suggesting that the S&P500 is entering the 9th year of a single bull market. In a majority of cases they are purposely misleading you for personal gain.

It's important to identify that the one single reason these people are using is actually a small technicality that they are irresponsibly pointing out and choosing to isolate as the sole basis for this conclusion. The single reason they are using to suggest that the S&P500 is entering its 9th year of a bull market is because in 2011 the S&P500 fell only 19.38% from peak to trough on a closing basis and not 20%. Again, let me stress that this is the ONLY data point they are using to claim we are in an 8-year bull market. And to make matters worse, their reasoning is because it fell 19.38...

Emerging markets have been a real laggard. While developed markets around the world have been making new highs, it’s just now that emerging markets are catching up. This week the MSCI Emerging Markets Index Fund $EEM broke out to the highest level since the summer of 2015. This comes after 7 months of sideways consolidation:

It's hard to ignore certain market moves that tend to be very rare. Bullish outside days that engulf the prior period are one of those. I think this is exactly what we saw this week in the AMEX Arline Index and it is something we want to respect. This is especially the case if you consider where this bullish reversal took place, just below important support.

Every month I host a conference call for All Star Charts Premium Members where we discuss ongoing themes throughout the global marketplace as well as changes in trends where new positions would be most appropriate. This includes U.S. Stocks & Sectors, International Stock Indexes, Commodities, Currencies and Interest Rate Markets.

This week I laid out a list of bullish characteristics for stocks and my list of bearish characteristics in the current market environment. The reason for this exercise is to weigh the evidence and see which way the scale tilts. In this month's call, we'll dive deeper into the leading sectors and really identify the signs we'll be watching for to signal further deterioration in stocks, not just in the U.S. but globally.

We have a lot to discuss! It will be held on Tuesday March 21st at 7PM ET. Here are the Registration Details:

Remember, it's not about being right, it's about making money. Is it nice to be right? Of course. But it's even nicer to be profitable. In order to do so, we focus more attention on figuring out where we're wrong rather than allocating time and resources to fascinating about potential profits. If you want to be on my team, we're going to play defense. So when we set specific parameters to be long against, we stay disciplined and move on to other opportunities when need be. If you use stop losses, it's about executing them and then looking elsewhere. If your options expire worthless, just know you limited your loss to the premium you paid. The priority is always on the risk management, not on dreaming about future profits. I encourage everyone to read this post from last year: Knowing Where To Get Out Before Getting In

In today's market environment I think it's even more important to reiterate this point. Last week I mentioned that if we started to see cracks in certain levels for specific assets, then a more cautious stance is appropriate for stocks. Well, over the last few days, we've started to see that...

Intermarket Analysis is a fantastic tool that is available to us as technicians regardless of our time horizon. Certain gauges of risk appetite, or risk aversion, can be seen simultaneously throughout various asset classes. We use these correlations as confirmations or divergences from data we're getting elsewhere. Today I want to focus on the direction of the U.S. Interest Rate Market and compare it to the data we're getting from Regional Bank Stocks and Real Estate Investment Trusts. The relationship between Banks and REITs is similar to the tug of war going on between investors in the Bond Market. 

Technical Analysis is the study of the behavior of the market and market participants. We try and identify the direction of the primary trend and invest accordingly. As Technicians we can apply our price-focused approach to any market, whether it's stocks, commodities, currencies or even Bitcoin. If it is liquid and driven by the supply and demand dynamics in that particular market, then applying our methods of price analysis makes perfect sense and it works very well.

I jumped on board the Bitcoin train last year and added it to my Research Platform. Our clients really enjoy it, whether they are actively trading it or just interested in the product. To be honest, one of the biggest reasons why I decided to start including it in my weekly analysis is because I saw an opportunity to profit from this market. At the end of the day, isn't that why all of us are looking at these charts in the first place, Bitcoin or otherwise?  

For me it's not just about buying a group of stocks, but about buying the strongest members of that group. I am a firm believer that by erring on the long side of relative strength or erring on the short side of relative weakness, the odds of a continuation in trend is much greater than the odds of a reversal. Therefore, there is a higher probability of success by following trend, rather than trying to fight trends. So today I want to talk about how we're going to take this top/down approach and apply it to find profitable trades this month in Energy stocks. 

Hey guys, I could really use your help with this. I'm trying to a consensus answer on the list of the 10 most important liquid assets on earth. I've given this a lot of thought and have come up with mine. But I want to know what you think. I'll post the poll results at the end of the week. Here is my list in no particular order:

I'm lucky that I get a chance to read a lot and converse with really smart market participants all the time. So there are many lessons that I've gotten to learn the easy way, from my predecessors and colleagues. But there are some lessons that damn it you just need to learn on your own. For me one of those lessons was trading stocks near flat 200 day moving averages. And when I say "stock", this can refer to an ETF, Commodity Futures, Index, etc. But when they're near their directionless longer-term smoothing mechanism, you're begging for trouble. If you like headaches, trade stocks near flat 200 day moving averages. 

Register here for our live monthly conference call for Premium Members of All Star Charts India.

March's Strategy Session will be held on Tuesday, March 2nd at 7 PM IST. As always, if you cannot make the call live, the video and slides will be archived and published here along with all of our past conference calls.

Here are the details for Tuesday:

I'm lucky in that I learned early in my career that we're in a global market place. The United States, while it is certainly important, is just one country within a massive interconnected global market. We see this more and more every day. Many choose to focus on US Stocks, and that's fine. But I think even if that's the case, approaching the market globally is not only an advantage, but becoming more of a necessity with each day that passes.

Today I want to share a chart that really tells an interesting story about what is actually happening in stocks around the world. I've taken the 10 largest exchanges in the world, including both developed and emerging markets, and equally-weighted each of them to create an All Star Charts Top 10 Global Exchanges Index. You can see embedded in the chart, the exact list of components: