One of the more impressive moves that we've seen in 2016 is in the Industrial space. While we came into the year near multi-year lows on a relative basis (XLI/SPY), we entered December hitting new all-time highs relative to the S&P500. You want to talk about a dramatic change in relative strength? This is something we take very seriously, and definitely not something to ignore. We also want to keep in mind is that this relative strength started well before any election, US or otherwise. This got going in January.

Today we're taking a look at the largest component in the Industrial sector: General Electric $GE, a stock that broke out earlier this year above a downtrend line from the all-time highs in 2000 and is still 30% below the 2007 highs. I think this is where we want to be looking:

Most of us are here to try and make money in the market. Some others are just here to make noise and create content they think will help them drive traffic to sell ads. The importance of the Dow Jones Industrial Average hitting 20,000 is one of the biggest lies of the year. I'm lucky to be good friends with some of the smartest traders and analysts in the world. We email each other all the time privately to share ideas and discuss some of the things we're seeing out there. If there is something worth watching, I'm likely to get an email about it, or at least be included in an email discussion on the topic. So far, zero mention of this arbitrary 20,000 level, but double digit emails from media asking me what I think. See the difference?

Every month I host a conference call for All Star Charts Members where we discuss ongoing themes throughout the global marketplace as well as changes in trends where new positions would be most appropriate. This includes U.S. Stocks & Sectors, International Stock Indexes, Commodities, Currencies and Interest Rate Markets. Transportation stocks have been a huge winner for us and we'll be discussing the sectors and assets that I think can behave in a similar manner in the coming weeks and months.

This month's Conference Call will be held on Wednesday December 14, 2016 at 7PM ET. Here are the Registration Details:

For someone who uses Dow Theory every single day, it's not something that I write about much. I may indirectly reference certain tenets all the time, but rarely do I write specifically about the 130 year old Dow Theory. I think I pretty much laid it all out earlier this year in my post: 5 Things Every Investor Should Know About Dow Theory. The simple minded choose to stick to the Dow Jones Transportation Average and Dow Jones Industrial Average either confirming each other or diverging from one another. And while this may in fact be a one of Charles Dow's tenets (although they were Railroads back then, not the Transports we have today), it does not even make it into my top 5 most important tenets.

I could not be happier to see this rally in stocks all over the world. The Transportation stocks in particular have been especially impressive (See here: Transports 8/24/16). But I want to point to some of the rotation we've started to see in other asset classes since last week. 

One of the more interesting scenarios across the global market place is what is happening in the US Dollar, and the Euro component more specifically. Remember, the Euro represents a majority in the entire US Dollar Index. On Monday, the Euro engulfed the prior 13 trading sessions. This means that it made a new low, below the past few weeks trading, and then reversed to close at a new high, above any of the highs over the past few weeks.

I like to keep an open mind. The one thing I'm certain of is that I'm not certain of anything. So I weigh all of the evidence and then try to find the best risk vs reward opportunities based on the cards that we've been dealt. We can't let our emotions impact our decision making, it has to be 100% dependent on the data at hand. Today, I think one of the more interesting situations is in the US Dollar Index.

One of the characteristics of bull markets and strong uptrends is sector rotation. While Technology was the first to start leading the market higher in July, Financials and Transportation stocks have recently held the leadership duties. You can start to throw in Industrials the past few weeks into the leadership category as well. Meanwhile, some of the mega-cap names have held back Technology, at least temporarily, from continuing to make new highs. But when you look underneath the surface, I believe there is a much different story to tell.

Here is the video recording of the November 2016 Monthly Conference Call for Members Only

In the call we discuss:

• Major U.S. Indexes
• Best and Worst Sectors
• Crude Oil & Energy Stocks Long
• Which Tech Stocks To Buy
• Financials Hitting Our Upside Objectives
• Gold and Silver Keep Struggling
• US Rates Hit Our Upside Targets. Cover bond shorts

When we talk about asset allocation, similar questions often come up: More International stocks? More Emerging Markets? More US Investments? Where do we rotate as we head into next year? These are all common themes normally brought up in this type of conversation. So using only facts to help our decision making, let's look at price and see what, if anything, it is pointing to.

This is a chart of the S&P500 ETF $SPY compared with the ACWI Ex-US Index ETF $ACWX:

Last week I shared with you guys a "Mystery Chart" without any labels on it. The point of this exercise is to eliminate any biases and focus only on facts. The only truth in the market that we can count on is price. Sell side analysts are going extinct because they offer little value, the media is often either wrong or lying to you, the same can be said about C-level executives, and the list goes on and on. None of these people are reliable. This is why the only thing we can count on is price. It's just math. So we prefer to focus on that and ignore the rest of the noise.

Today we're looking at a rare development in economically sensitive assets that I think have much broader implications for stocks and commodities moving forward:

There have been a lot of really amazing moves this week in the market. But one interesting development that I don't hear much chatter about is the monster move in Value stocks vs Growth stocks. Value stocks like Berkshire Hathaway and JP Morgan have exploded higher the past week at the same time that Wells Fargo stopped crashing. Meanwhile, in Growth land Amazon and Facebook have had a tough time. You can see this beautifully in the charts.

Over the past few days I've received requests from readers about my thoughts on Russian stocks. While I don't particularly care about the US/Russia relations when it comes to picking stocks to buy and sell, it seems to be something of interest to a lot of people. So let's dive in.

Every now and then I throw out a mystery chart just to get us thinking. Not knowing what a chart represents helps eliminate biases or any ideas we may already have in our heads. Today we are looking at what I think is one of the more interesting developments in the market today.

Every month I host a conference call for All Star Charts Members where we discuss ongoing themes throughout the global marketplace as well as changes in trends where new positions would be most appropriate. This includes U.S. Stocks & Sectors, International Stock Indexes, Commodities, Currencies and Interest Rate Markets. Transports and Copper continue to make new highs while US Treasury Bonds keep selling off on the back of higher interest rates. We'll discuss all of these issues and more.

This month's Conference Call will be held on Tuesday November 15, 2016 at 7PM ET. Here are the Registration Details:

When it comes to the U.S. stock market, there are a bunch of popular stocks that many consider important bellwethers that could give clues to the health and direction of the overall market. Personally, I look at shares of J.P. Morgan Chase (JPM). They have a long track record that goes back to the 19th century. More importantly, with a market cap of $250 billion, this bank has a huge influence on the financial sector, not to mention the entire market. But even more telling, in my view, is the historically high positive correlation between J.P. Morgan shares and the S&P 500.

There is a lot of noise out there about the Mexican Peso and the Presidential Elections. So I can't think of a better time to focus on the supply and demand dynamics in the forex markets to see if we can determine the most likely direction of the Peso. Fortunately, as technicians, we can just ignore all that junk and spend our time on the only factor that actually pays, which is price.

Throughout the second half of 2016 I've remained in the camp that interest rates are going higher and that bonds are a fade. The action into 4th of July weekend originally put me in that camp and I continue to believe that, bigger picture, this is the underlying trend that we need to respect. The catalyst here, in many cases, is becoming more and more clear with each passing day. Forget the economy and the stock market, inflationary forces are moving in sync with the bond market suggesting a very high correlation between the inflation trade and higher rates.

Let's break this down using math and blatantly ignore anything the federal reserve has to say. Listening to them has been a time waster and money loser for years. I don't expect this trend to change any time soon. I'm sure they are nice people, but from a portfolio construction perspective, they offer absolutely zero value, and some might argue that listening to the fed is actually detrimental to a sound investing plan. I agree with both the latter and the former: that noise is toxic on all accounts.

Transports this week are hitting new 6-month highs relative to the S&P500. Remember, these guys have been the leader for years. To review, the Dow Jones Transportation Average peaked in late 2014, well before the S&P500 put in its final top in May of 2015. Moving forward, the Dow Transports put in their bottom in January of this year, the month before the S&P500. So yes, we want to continue to look to the Transports for leadership.

Today we are breaking down the Transportation stocks once again to see what is really happening underneath the surface: