It's a new year and I'm back on the TV to chat with Catherine Murray at BNN Bloomberg. I wish I was in Toronto to shoot this live so I could get some Thai food or something afterwards, but we'll settle for a Skype call in this one! Man I love visiting Toronto.
Anyway, I don't think there's been anyone on her show who has been as bullish stocks as we have over the past 6-8 months. I even asked her, but she just laughed. Remember Just Buy Them Baby! from July?
What's changed since then? Only additional sector rotation, further breadth expansion and unparalleled participation (and new leadership) from global markets. Are you not entertained?
Check out the interview in full. We touch on some important points:
This week Howard and I talk about the evolution of markets. There are new ways for investors to allocate money almost every day. SPACs are back! More IPOs this year, and many of them going up. New tickers every day.
What do we do about it? How can we get involved? We discuss all of that in this video!
As we enter 2021, what are the areas we need to be watching? Howard thinks there are 3 major themes to be long for the next decade:
Fintech, Healthcare & Education.
It's hard for me to disagree, especially from a Technical perspective.
Now that the official period of the Santa Claus rally is over, we can look back and see if Santa actually showed up or not.
As we discussed last month before it got started, the Santa Claus rally lasts for 7 trading days: the last 5 of 2020 and the first 2 of 2021. Based on the way the calendar worked out, this year's festivities began on December 24th and lasted through yesterday, January 5th.
The S&P500 rallied about 1% during this period, which is perfectly normal market behavior for this time of year:
JC and I were chatting this morning about things we're seeing in the markets. The big thing we're observing is the breakout in financials. And a breakout in financials is rarely something one observes in a bear market, or a bull market that is in the process of "topping."
While it might be wise to wait for pullbacks in the financials space before entering any new trades there, we were able to take some risk off in a bullish calls trade in Morgan Stanley $MS we've been in since December 11.
But one stock that has JC's attention has been lulling investors to sleep over the past six months. And this is kind of ironic since one of their main product lines is Trojan -- which promotes anything but sleep ;)
Dividend aristocrats are easily some of the most desirable investments on Wall Street. These are the names that have increased dividends for at least 25 years, providing steadily increasing income to longer-term minded shareholders.
As you can imagine, the companies making up this prestigious list are some of the most recognizable brands in the world. Coca-Cola, Walmart, and Johnson & Johnson are just a few of the household names making the cut.
Here at All Star Charts, we like to stay ahead of the curve. That’s why we're turning our attention to the future aristocrats. In an effort to seek out the next generation of the cream-of-the-crop dividend plays, we’re curating a list of stocks that have raised their payouts every year for 5-9 years.
Introducing the Young Aristocrats. We like to say these are "stocks that pay you to make money". Imagine if years of consistent dividend growth and high momentum & relative strength had a baby, leaving you with the best of the emerging dividend giants that are outperforming the averages.
Metals are soaring and we're tracking this space to see if the sector breaks above its resistance. We are currently working on the Quarterly Playbook for our Premium members but wanted to pause and share some interesting ideas with you guys here.
I hope you all had a great Christmas and enjoyed your New Year's celebrations.
It's around this time of the year everyone gets all excited to ramp up their New Year's Resolutions: start exercising more, lose some weight, drink less...
But if there's one resolution I'd like to see more of from technical analysts, it's to keep your charts clean!
From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza and Louis Sykes @haumicharts
At the beginning of each week, we publish performance tables for a variety of different asset classes and categories along with commentary on each.
Looking at the past helps put the future into context. In this post, we review the absolute and relative trends at play and preview some of the things we’re watching in order to profit in the weeks and months ahead.
After several months of consolidation, the major indexes have set the foundation for another leg upward in line with their primary trends. We've been seeing many of them resolve higher in recent weeks.
We continue to see rotation into economically sensitive and cyclical assets - supporting our view that there is a strong appetite, not aversion, for risk.
And the FICC markets continue to confirm this bullish environment for stocks and risk assets.
Let's jump right into this week's report with our US index table.
I don't know about you, but I'm super excited for this coming year. I'm expecting volatility in both directions. And volatility = opportunity for options traders.
That said, let's not rush into anything. I know... if you're like me you're itching to start firing off trades.
But as the opening 90 minutes of trading has showed us so far today, things can get slippery fast as people and institutions start putting money to work and rotating money around in often sloppy fashion. This is pretty typical in the first couple trading days of any new year.
We retired our "Five Bull Market Barometers" in mid-July to make room for a new weekly post that's focused on the three most important charts for the week ahead.
This is that post, so let's jump into this week's edition.
Consumer Staples stocks are breaking out to new all-time highs. These are the stocks representing the companies whose services and products we as consumers would still buy regardless of how bad the economy might be. These stocks historically outperform by a lot when stocks in general are under pressure, which makes sense right?
I mean, no matter what, we're still going to brush our teeth and wash our dishes, drink beers and smoke cigarettes. Those are the "Consumer Staples": Procter & Gamble, Pepsi, Philip Morris, etc.
When stocks are doing well, you'll see Staples underperforming, because money is less willing to pay up for those defensive less growthy stocks. I wrote about this here and how this plays into our approach in the current market environment.
In a further effort to identify individual equities that fit within our larger more Macro thesis, we couldn't be happier to roll out and share our latest bottoms-up scan: "The Minor Leaguers."
We'll also be writing a post every other week where we outline some of our favorite setups from the watchlist. This is the first edition.
Moving forward, we'll be rotating this column with "Under The Hood" each week.
In order to make it onto our Minor League list, you must have a market cap between $1 and $2B. There are also price and liquidity filters.
Then, we simply sort the stocks by their percentage from new highs. Easy.
And what better time than now to launch a small-cap focused column!? We've seen very strong evidence of a structural rotation down the market cap scale, suggesting a new period of outperformance from small-caps in recent months/quarters.
This should be a great way to take advantage of that trend. Let's dive right in!
I'm incredibly fortunate to be able to have regular conversations with many of the top Traders, Analysts, PMs and Financial Advisors in the world.
So many of these friends of mine had their best year ever. Some of my friends absolutely crushed 2020, which is not surprising given their prior success and the increased level of opportunities sparked from spikes in volatility earlier in the year.
So what was the common denominator among the ones who succeeded the most? (because I asked them all)
They told me, each in their own ways, that they shut off the news and just listened to the market. You see, the "news" is designed to be a distraction. The better they are at distracting you from what's actually important, the more their precious sponsors will pay them. That's how that works.
The "news" people are not here to help you. In fact, in many cases,...
The end of a month is more like a celebration at ASC. We sit back, relax, and go through Monthly charts and look out for interesting trends developing across the globe. In our Top-Down Analysis approach, we go through thousands of charts to arrive at a wholesome view of the market.
There were five charts that popped out in particular. We thought of giving you a preview of our Monthly Charts Strategy Session which is scheduled for Tuesday, January 5th at 7PM IST.
Let's take a look at these charts!
What do you do when an index has clocked a 30 year high? You track it's every move and watch history as it unfolds in front of your eyes. Nikkei 225, which was on our watchlist, has finally moved above 26,900. A strong move would propel the price higher towards its next target of 32,850. This would in-turn have an impact on Japan's Asian peers. For now, let's wait and watch.