This is not something we do often -- usually because these types of opportunities don't present themselves frequently. But we've identified an under-appreciated potential for a 20x gain on our invested capital if the markets cooperate.

Its the perfect storm of a megacap stock emerging from an long base, options flow showing people are starting to position for "something" and an ASC price target that doesn't appear to be priced in by the crowd.

Of course, part of the reason for the elevated options activity is due to an "Investor Day" event happening today, but the action still has been raising some attention.

We debuted a new scan recently which goes by the name- All Star Momentum.

All Star Momentum is a brand new scan that pinpoints the very best stocks in the market. This time around, we have incorporated our stock universe of Nifty 500 as the base. Among the 500 stocks that we follow, this scan will pump out names that are most likely to generate great returns.

While we go through our lists of sectors and stocks on a weekly basis, we thought of launching a product that would highlight the names that are the strongest performers in our universe and those that are primed for an explosive move.

Just like The Outperformers scan, this is a list of stocks belonging to the sectors that display relative strength in the market at any given point in time. Since sector rotation is the lifeblood of a bull market, we will be ahead of the curve before the gears keep shifting.

From the desk of Steven Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @IanCulley

The US Dollar has been trapped in a sideways trading range for the trailing 12 months now. The primary trend is lower, and we continue to see near-term weakness from the DXY Index as well as most USD crosses.

Commodity-centric currencies have been some of the best performers versus the Dollar since early last year, although most of them have been correcting since Q1 or Q2, giving back a good deal of their earlier gains.

So, will we see a resurgence back to those risk-on pairs, or will they keep sliding lower against the Dollar?

Today, we’re going to focus specifically on the currencies of some of the largest oil-producing countries in the world.

This should give us information not just about currency markets, but also commodities and risk assets in general. 

Let’s talk about it.

An easy way to aggregate and measure their performance as a group is by analyzing our Petrocurrency Index. It includes currencies like the Canadian Dollar $CAD, the Russian Ruble $RUB, and the Brazilian Real $BRL, among others.

Here it is, overlaid with Crude Oil...

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

This All Star Charts +Plus Monthly Playbook breaks down the investment universe into a series of largely binary decisions and tactical calls. Paired with our Weight of the Evidence Dashboard, this piece is designed to help active asset allocators follow trends, pursue opportunities, and manage risk.

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

In yesterday's note, we outlined that this looks very much like a "wait and see" week, with Bitcoin still in this messy sideways range.

44,000 is a big level of interest that the market respected, with prices trading back above our long-term macro risk level of 46,000 this morning.

But we're not really expecting much more than tumbleweeds and a few winners here and there while Bitcoin's stuck below the upper-end of this range near 47,500.

But if we see a breakout above that level, we'll be deploying some more cash into new long positions.

We're seeing this play out with the number of new monthly highs dwindling recently:

Breadth is more of a lagging metric in crypto because so much of the asset class is driven by the top-heavy names, so this merely shows the diminishing opportunities since Bitcoin's correction a few weeks ago....

Base Metals have long been a part of our conversation here. Specifically, the Commodity supercycle has been one narration that you've been reading here since the end of last year. Of course, the trend hasn't been a simple upward motion. It's been anything but that, to be honest!

But time and again, we get some signals that reach out to us and say, 'we are alive'. It's like waiting for your spacecraft to send you a signal saying it's A-ok. The past week was just that in terms of the base metals move that we saw. Did you see it too?

Earlier this week we shared the metals index making new highs and displaying the strength that we're seeing in this segment. Here is our very own custom index that's basically doing the same thing. You can see how strong the trend has been in the base metals space whereby we witness minor pauses in trend, followed by resumption.

The custom index is fast approaching its overhead resistance level at the 261.8% Fibonacci extension level. If however, the strong trend continues, we could witness a breakout above this level too! Remember...

From the desk of Steve Strazza @sstrazza

This is one of our favorite bottom-up scans: Follow The Flow. In this note, we simply create a universe of stocks that experienced the most unusual options activity — either bullish or bearish… but NOT both.

We utilize options experts, both internally and through our partnership with The TradeXchange. Then, we dig through the level 2 details and do all the work upfront for our clients. Our goal is to isolate only those options market splashes that represent levered and high-conviction, directional bets.

We also weed out hedging activity and ensure there are no offsetting trades that either neutralize or cap the risk on these unusual options trades. What remains is a list of stocks that large financial institutions are putting big money behind… and they’re doing so for one reason only: because they think the stock is about to move in their direction and make them a pretty penny...

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

Key Takeaway: Median stock has gone nowhere for six months. Emerging market trends are improving and commodities are moving toward new highs. Inflation weighing on consumer attitudes is a headwind for the economy.

• If shopping in the Energy (or Consumer Discretionary) sectors, look in the mid-cap aisles. The Energy sector is near the bottom of the large-cap sector rankings, but at the top of the mid-cap rankings.
• Improving relative strength trends for large-cap Food & Staples Retailing and Utilities bear watching as index-level volatility picks up.

As is often the case, the Labor Day Weekend has come and gone and some volatility has been reintroduced to the marketplace. And I say: "Welcome back!" with outstreched arms. Volatility = opportunity. Let's get after it.

With the rising volatility, we're seeing premiums start to pump up in options land. When this is the case, I always start hunting for some delta-neutral credit spread opportunities.

Today's hunt has yielded an excellent candidate with clearly defined levels for us to lean against. 

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Welcome to our latest "Minor Leaguers" report.

We've already had some great trades come out of this small-cap-focused column since we launched it late last year and started rotating it with our flagship bottoms-up scan, "Under The Hood."

We recently decided to expand our universe to include some mid-caps….

For about a year now, we’ve focused only on Russell 2000 stocks with a market cap between $1 and $2B. That was fun, but we think it’s time we branch out a bit and allow some new stocks to find their way onto our list.

The way we’re doing this is simple...

To make the cut for our new Minor Leaguers list, a company must have a market cap between $1 and $4B. And it doesn’t have to be a Russell component--it can be any US-listed equity. With participation expanding around the globe, we want all those ADRs in our universe. 

The same price and liquidity filters are applied. Then, as always, we sort by proximity to new highs in order...

In traditional markets, we've been making the case that they've been a big fat mess.

So with all things considered, the alpha taking place within crypto has been catching our attention. But even this asset class has succumbed to the choppy action experienced elsewhere.

The bottom line is that if Bitcoin's below 46,000, the probability of success in new long positions reduces.

Looking more tactically, 44,000 is another critical inflection point. Not only does this conjuncture represent the 38.2% retracement from the recent thrust higher, but also the AVWAPs from all-time highs and July lows, as well as the 50-day moving average.

If we hold above 44k, things are likely not completely falling apart, and though the near-term trend is still choppy, there will still continue to be winners under the surface.

Alternatively, if we're below 44,000, the risk is well defined for a tactical short back to 41,000, which represents Bitcoin's June highs. We'd anticipate a...

This week we’re looking at a long set up in the Industrial Manufacturing sector. We're seeing a good move here as more stocks break out from their overhead supply zones.

Here's another one that has grabbed our attention.

We retired our "Five Bull Market Barometers" in mid-July last year to make room for a new weekly post that's focused on the three most important charts for the week ahead.

This is that post, so let's jump into this week's edition.

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Check out this week's Momentum Report, our weekly summation of all the major indexes at a Macro, International, Sector, and Industry Group level.

By analyzing the short-term data in these reports, we get a more tactical view of the current state of markets. This information then helps us put near-term developments into the context of the big picture and provides insights regarding the structural trends at play.

Let's jump right into it with some of the major takeaways from this week's report:

* ASC Plus Members can access the Momentum Report by clicking the link at the bottom of this post.

Macro Universe:

• Our Macro list experienced widespread weakness this week as 81% of assets closed lower with a median return of -1.29%.
• The VIX index was the big winner, closing out the week with more than a 27% gain and registering fresh 13-week highs in the process.
• The biggest loser this week was Lumber, falling -7.13%
• This week, we saw a 6% drop in the percentage of assets on our list that are within 5% of their 52-week highs (...

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Our Top 10 report was just published. In this weekly note, we highlight 10 of the most important charts or themes we're currently seeing in asset classes around the world.

When the market provides us mixed signals, we dive beneath the surface to find more clues about the current environment. Here's the S&P 500 relative to U.S. Treasury Bonds, with the Russell 2000 overlaid. Note the similarity between them during the past year. When comparing stocks vs bonds it tells a story of not just where the alpha is but also how market participants are behaving. Similar to strength from small-caps, the ratio is a great gauge of risk appetite. Hence, why they look the same.

SPY/TLT tried to break out this week, but couldn’t quite get it done. As long as these charts continue to be trapped in their sideways ranges, expect more messy action for equities and risk assets in general. But, if and when we get upward resolutions, be ready for a more risk-on environment.

If there has been any alpha anywhere in this market, it's been in Crypto.

We don't care where the trends are. We just want to participate in them. They can be in Stocks, Energy, Metals, Euro, Crypto, doesn't matter.

I stopped caring a long time ago.

Here's Cardano reminding us what polarity is all about:

How much longer is this market going to be a mess?

Probably longer than you want it to be.

Why do you think defensive assets stopped going down 5-6 months ago?

It's Saturday Morning Chartoons time. 

This is the weekly post that aggregates all the charts we put together throughout the week and organizes them all into one, easy to flip through deck.

You can find the whole list of trades here.

Below you'll find the full PDF of this week's charts:

From the desk of Steve Strazza @sstrazza and Grant Hawkridge @granthawkridge

It’s been a while since we checked in on the US breadth scene, and for a good reason… there’s really nothing new to say.

Some US stocks are going up, but most are not.

Instead, our focus has been on expanding global breadth. We believe the burgeoning participation in international markets is constructive for US markets, specifically for cyclical areas. 

But are we beginning to see any signs of breadth expansion domestically? 

In today’s post, we'll switch gears and turn our attention stateside to address participation among US stocks.

Let’s dive in!

Here’s a look down the cap scale at all three S&P indexes, from large to small:

There's been literally no material move in the number of new...