From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza.

Welcome back to our latest "Under The Hood" column where we'll cover all the action for the week ended July 23, 2021. This report is published bi-weekly and rotated on-and-off with our "Minor Leaguers" column.

What we do here is analyze the most popular stocks during the week and find opportunities to either join in and ride these momentum names higher, or fade the crowd and bet against them.

We use a variety of sources to generate the list of most popular names. There are so many new data sources available that all we need to do is organize and curate them in a way that shows us exactly what we want: A list of stocks that are seeing an unusual increase in investor interest.

Watch this video for a "behind the scenes"...

The team pumped out the Saturday Chartoons letter this weekend and as always, there were some nuggets of wisdom and ideas to be found therein.

The tone overall is: we're in a tricky spot here. There are some stocks going up, many stocks going down. But in sum, we're kinda stuck in the mud here for a little bit, it appears.

Of course, if this continues for a bit, then we'll want to keep our eyes out for more delta-neutral credit spreads to add to our portfolio.

There's one sector ETF that was specifically highlighted in this weekend's letter that fits the criteria I look for.

It's fair to say that bulls scored some points in the last few days, with Bitcoin moving back up to the upper 30,000's.

Throughout this recent rally, it was pretty clear that there was a lot of squeeze-action going on, as over $900M in Bitcoin shorts were liquidated in the last 24-hours...

Or as we like to say around here, from failed moves come fast moves in the opposite direction:

Just take a look at momentum registering its highest reading since April, following that notable bullish divergence...

It's also constructive to see Ethereum holding its head above 2,250, which is been a critical long-term level:

Seeing buyers dig in where they needed to is a great sign of much-needed progress for this beaten-up asset class.

But, there's still work to be done.

Particularly in the short term, Bitcoin is still trapped beneath...

The market has spoken.

If you're not long Crypto in one form or another, that's makes you short by default.

Do you want to make sure you underperform? Keep Crypto out of your portfolio.

These are the current circumstances and consequences.

Here we're looking at the ratio between Bitcoin and the S&P500:

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Check out this week’s Momentum Report, our weekly summation of all the major indexes at a Macro, International, Sector, and Industry Group level.

By analyzing the short-term data in these reports, we get a more tactical view of the current state of markets. This information then helps us put near-term developments into the context of the big picture and provides insights regarding the structural trends at play.

Let’s jump right into it with some of the major takeaways from this week’s report:

* ASC Plus Members can access the Momentum Report by clicking the link at the bottom of this post.

• Our macro universe had a positive week, with 72% of our list closing in the green with a median return of 0.36%.
• After multiple weeks of selling pressure, Lumber $LB was finally the big winner as it booked an 18% gain.
• Despite spiking higher on Monday, the biggest laggard this week was the VIX index $VIX, with a loss of -6.78%.
• Several US Large-Cap Growth indices finished the week at all-...

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Our Top 10 report was just published. In this weekly note, we highlight 10 of the most important charts or themes we're currently seeing in asset classes around the world.

This week’s new highs for the major averages lacked confirmation from their peer indices once again. A topic we often discuss is "Modern Dow Theory." That is, instead of solely evaluating Transports and Industrials for a reading on the broader market, we should also consider the performance of Semiconductors as they’ve become the modern medium for economic transportation.

Despite the Dow Industrials ripping back to close this volatile week out at fresh highs, we’re still not seeing any confirmation from either of these critical indexes. And when we look at the Transportation Average, there is reason for concern as we’ve seen nothing but steady weakness since prices peaked in early May. As for semis, they continue to hold their own but remain trapped in a holding pattern beneath their April highs.

A decisive...

Today we're going to take a look at a long setup in the Cements space. We initiated a buy on this stock in the month of April and from the looks of it, we now have to update the target!

We retired our "Five Bull Market Barometers" in mid-July last year to make room for a new weekly post that's focused on the three most important charts for the week ahead.

This is that post, so let's jump into this week's edition.

We're back to discuss some commodity ideas that are looking good at current levels. For the longest time, we've been looking out for a commodity supercycle. Over the past few months, we saw base metals halting their move and digesting their gains. But there are certain pockets that are demanding our attention so we thought what better than to share them with you!

Nickel is trading at lifetime highs, ladies and gentlemen! That's big news coming at a time when we're seeing a mess in most asset classes and markets. With the close in the week gone by, the base metal moved past its resistance and closed above it.

As we can see below, the price was finding it difficult to get past the level of 1,425. Now with that out of the way, we're looking at a target of 1,630 in Nickel. 1,425 will continue to act as the risk management level. If we know anything about the recent move in base metals, then we know not to put all our eggs in one basket.

Several premature breakouts later we've reached this point. So it is all the more important to be clear about your risk management level!

Click on the chart to zoom in.

...

It's Saturday Morning Chartoons time. 

This is the weekly post that aggregates all the charts we put together throughout the week and organizes them all into one, easy to flip through deck.

I rip through more charts than almost anyone in the world. 

Here's the bottom line. Some stocks are going up, most stocks are not.

That's the answer.

You want know what's up? That's the deal.

So are more stocks going to start going up too? 

Maybe.

But right now that's the trend. Mostly a choppy sideways hot mess, with some stocks resolving those consolidations higher.

One thing I will add, however, is the lack of downside resolutions.

We're just not seeing these stocks and indexes breaking down and holding down. Or at least, we're not seeing more and more of them do that.

So the glass is half full right now. And I think if Regional Banks can get their act together and the 10yr yield can get back above 1.4% then I believe the glass could be even more full.

In the meantime, I think we need to continue to err on the mostly messy with a few exceptions...

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @Ianculley

The markets are a mess and have been a mess for months now.

Risk assets are under pressure as the USD strengthens and overhead supply thwarts potential rallies.

Yet, we continue to find pockets of strength in both stocks and commodities.

We’ve said it time and time again during the past several months...the markets are a bifurcated, choppy mess! 

But during these challenging periods, identifying areas that are bucking the trend can prove valuable over intermediate- and longer-term timeframes.

Basically, the assets holding up the best or even breaking out while the broader market is trendless are likely to be your future leaders.

Let’s take a look at one area of the market doing just that!

Here’s a chart of the ASC Green Revolution Index: 

From the desk of Steven Strazza @Sstrazza and Grant Hawkridge @granthawkridge

You’re probably sick of hearing this but it’s important! Even with the recent bout of volatility, new lows have been non-existent across most of the major averages in the US.

To be fair, many of our Intermarket relationships are still flashing red, suggesting continued headwinds for risk assets. 

Earlier this week we saw significant selling pressure in equity markets both domestically and abroad. Conditions are as ripe as they’ve been in more than a year for the bears. 

So, did we finally get that “fall day,” as our fellow Technician and friend Mike Hurley likes to call it?

The simple answer is no...

To us, the recent readings from our breadth indicators are no different from similar pullbacks over the past 18 months and not what a significant market top would look like.

But we always need to remember that like anything else, analyzing internals is a process. 

With this in mind, let’s check in on the 21-day lows for all S&P market cap sizes:

...

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

The S&P 500 fell 1.5% on Monday and rebounded with a 1.5% gain on Tuesday. These were the 31st and 32nd daily moves of 1% or more so far in 2021. At this point last year, we had experienced 72 daily swings of 1% or more, the most we had seen by July in at least two decades. While 2021 has been a drop off from last year’s torrid pace, it’s nothing compared to what was seen in 2017 (which had just 4 moves of 1% in either direction at this point, and finished the year with just 8). What is amazing about 2021 is how closely it has matched the median experience of the past 20+ years. So far this has been a year that is remarkable in its unremarkableness.

So Steve Strazza hit me up yesterday with: "Have you seen our latest 2-to-100 Club report? All of those stocks are breaking out!"

When Strazza gets giddy about price action, I take notice. Of course, I had to pull it up and scan the list. And sure enough, every one of those names is moving in the right direction. Some already moved so quickly that I'm going to hold off for a better possible entry point. But one of those names just triggered yesterday and is giving us a well-timed pullback today for us to get positioned.

This is the video recording of our July 23, 2021 All Star Charts Crypto Weekly Strategy Session.

We debuted a new scan recently- The Outperformers.

The Outperformers is our newest scan that pinpoints the very best stocks in the market. It’s the fastest, easiest way to find quality names that are primed for major moves.

The goal is that as the market rally progresses, the sector rotation within the market will reflect in this scan. So while our Top/Down Analysis helps us with the broader view of the market, this Bottom/Up scan makes sure that we catch the slightest change in sentiment.

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @Ianculley

A revolution in energy is upon us.

Some like to call it the green revolution or the transition to renewable and alternative energy. How you want to label it isn’t what matters. 

All we care about is that the landscape for energy and how we use it is changing dramatically.

As the world quickly changes and the demand for energy expands, how we generate and utilize it, as well as the natural resources we rely upon to do so - will inevitably change, and adapt to this new environment.

Of course, we’ll continue to burn coal, crude oil, and natural gas for the foreseeable future. But there are other pockets of strength arising in areas that could very well be secular growth trends for decades into the future.

We’re always looking to identify these new arenas of growth. Here’s the way we see it...

With strong prospects for global growth and economic expansion in the cards, additional energy sources will need to be created so that supply can meet the growing demand being placed on an already antiquated and stressed infrastructure.

As usual, the...

From the desk of Steve Strazza @sstrazza

I've personally been in the market for a new or used car for a few months now, and let's just say it hasn't been easy. The entire supply chain has been disrupted, and the market has been unable to keep up with demand.

I finally made the decision to stop my search until the supply crunch for semiconductors and other critical inputs alleviates. I could be waiting a while though, as this has already been going on for about a year. Thankfully, I live on an island that is only 8 square miles, so my bike or feet can take me wherever I need to go in the meantime.

According to a recent article from the Wall Street Journal:

Prices for both new and used cars are high. The surge is driven in part by the global chip shortage, which ...

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

It was a voicemail that any parent would dread…

Hello, this is the nurse from camp. Your son had an accident. He's fine but I need to talk to you… 

I quickly called back to get the details. I was on the road just a few minutes later, making a nighttime trip to a rural emergency room 100 miles away.  As it turns out, my son suffered a broken arm during a relatively run-of-the-mill game of chase that involved jumping across a small ditch and not quite sticking the landing. He was doing what we sent him to camp to do.    

A couple of hours alone in the car gave me plenty of time to think about all types of risks and how they are unevenly distributed across both space and time. Accidents can really happen anywhere. Still, we have nurses at summer camps, not in our living rooms. Broken arms and other more minor injuries are more likely at the former than the later. 

This is the video recording of the July 22nd Town Hall Meeting w/ Willie Delwiche & JC Parets

07/22/21 2PM ET