This is the video recording of the February 18th Town Hall Meeting w/ Willie Delwiche & JC Parets.

02/18/21 2PM ET

From the desk of Steve Strazza 

Our Top 10 report was just published; our weekly report highlighting the best 10 ideas and respective charts we are seeing across the markets this week. One idea and chart that really has our attention is Emerging Markets overlaid with The CRB Index.

Emerging Markets hit new all-time highs last week. This is supportive of the bullish action we’re seeing from stocks in other regions of the globe as well as economically-sensitive commodities. It is no coincidence that the Emerging Markets ETF $EEM and the CRB index tend to peak and trough in unison throughout history. They relay a similar message of “risk-on.” The big question now is whether it’s time for Commodities to play catch-up with Emerging Markets.

You'd have to be a part of the market for quite some time to be able to claim that you witnessed a bull run in the PSU Banks sector. This sector is notorious for perpetual underperformance regardless of the market sentiment.

Well, maybe that's changing. Over the past two weeks, these hibernating stocks decided to wake up and join the party. Looks like they finally received the invite for the ongoing rally!

A move above 1,900 in the PSU Banks Index is crucial and here's why. This level has played the role of strong support for close to seven years. With the breach of this level in early 2020, the principle of polarity would mean that 1,900 would turn into stubborn resistance. The fact that PSU Banks has broken out of this resistance rather quickly, hints at the strength that's building in this index.

We are bullish above 1,900, for targets near 2,645 & 3,445.

Click on chart to enlarge view.

Relatively speaking, the PSU Banks Index has broken out of its resistance zone and is ready for the next leg of...

Here we go with another round of our Top-Down Take post. At All Star Charts we like to keep things simple and look at the bigger picture. We let the charts speak to us and then decide what to do. Always remember, the Trend is our Friend.

Today we’re taking a look at the sector that seems to be rallying with a vengeance! The PSU Banks are out and about, finally enjoying their moment in the sun.

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza.

We recently held February’s Monthly Conference Call which our Premium Members can access and rewatch here.

In this post, we’ll provide a summary of the call by highlighting 5 of the most important charts/topics we covered along with commentary on each.

Let’s dive into it.

The need to be right vs wanting to make money. Every trader has to solve this problem and it's not easy.

On this week's podcast I sit down with Dr. Andrew Menaker to talk about what he refers to as "Your Inner Market".

You guys already know how much I love a good chat about investor psychology, so this was really fun for me.

I hope you enjoy!

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

Key takeaways:

• Both sales and earnings coming in better than expected
• Rising bond yields and higher inflation put pressure on valuations
• Excesses unlikely to be unwound while breadth remains strong & surprises are to the upside

Nearly three-quarters of the stocks in the S&P 500 have issued Q4 2020 earnings reports. The results have provided some cause for celebration. Earnings are now seen as rising 3%, versus an expected decline of 10% as of Dec. 31st. This is not strictly a function of shifting costs, write-offs and other methods of financial engineering. Sales in the quarter have surpassed expectations by more than 3%, the largest amount on record (going back to 2008). This eclipses the previous record which was set in Q3 2020. Companies in the S&P 500 have weathered the COVID-crisis much better than analysts had expected and that is being reflected in stock prices.

...

We're getting long oil.

There I said it. Now I'm going to go hide behind my oil derrick while the EV bros throw their rechargeable batteries at me.

Don't hate the player, hate the price action.

In lieu of our regular monthly options conference call to kick of February, as promised, here is a recording to the latest Members Only All Star Charts Conference call, hosted by JC Parets.

We held our February Monthly Conference Call on 16th which our Premium Members can access and rewatch here.

In this post, we'll share five of the most important charts along with JC's commentary of them and a brief explanation for each.

This is the video recording of the February 2021 Conference Call.

From the desk of Steve Strazza @sstrazza

At the beginning of each week, we publish performance tables for a variety of different asset classes and categories along with commentary on each.

Looking at the past helps put the future into context. In this post, we review the absolute and relative trends at play and preview some of the things we’re watching to profit in the weeks and months ahead.

We continue to harp on the risk-on themes that support our bullish macro thesis.

Rotation down the market-cap scale, commodity strength, and defensive alternatives making new relative lows have been some major themes we continue to see play out.

As participation continues to expand in both the US and abroad, we're being given more and more avenues to position ourselves in order to profit in the current environment.

While Tech and Growth still remain the secular leaders, even the perennial laggards such as...

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

Key Takeaway: There is ample evidence of investor complacency, optimism, and aggressive risk-taking.

The behavior of the broad market (another breadth thrust last week and the weekly NYSE + NASDAQ new high list is at its highest level ever) suggests some of this may be justified.

Sentiment is likely to become a more acute headwind when rally participation narrows and/or optimism remains elevated in the face of market volatility.

For now, optimism has been revealed as a mile wide but only an inch deep, with concern rising the moment the market stops rallying.

If you're ignoring the Indian Stock Market, I think you're doing yourself a huge disservice.

Even if you never plan on trading stocks in India at any point in your life, it doesn't matter. There's amazing information coming from there.

For example, take a look at that relative strength in Indian Bank stocks before US Stocks, and Stocks in general, rallied throughout 2019. That was an epic rally, if you recall.

The Indian Banks had already been telling us that it was coming!

From the desk of Steve Strazza @sstrazza

If Bitcoin's run to $50,000 or the latest YOLO stocks aren't too distracting right now, you might have noticed Crude Oil just registered new 52-week highs for the first time since fall 2018.

Or maybe you're ahead of the curve and caught our post about the Energy Sector experiencing what looks like a bullish initiation thrust just a few weeks ago.

Or perhaps you saw Financials just closed the past week at fresh all-time highs... finally breaking out after almost 15-years of no progress!

On top of all this action, the US 10-Year Yield is also pressing on its highest level in almost a year.

It's clear that more cyclical stocks and economically sensitive Commodities are taking on leadership roles. We're in quite the risk-on environment.

Considering the evidence we just listed, it's finally time to address the elephant in the room...

Nifty Industrial Manufacturing has been performing well and has caught our attention over the past two weeks. We selected Cummins India and Siemens Ltd. in our Trade of the Week before. But it seems like the other constituents are catching up as well.

We thought we could look at actionable ideas in this sector as several stocks are breaking out of big bases.

We created an Equally weighted custom index of the Industrial Manufacturing sector and this line chart reflects exactly what we're seeing in the individual constituents. A breakout in this index is suggesting further upside as an increasing number of stocks participate in the rally going forward.

Click on chart to enlarge view.

Now let’s take a look at some actionable ideas at current levels that look attractive on the long side for the next few...

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

Key Takeaway: Financials & bond yields finished last week at new recovery highs.

They were joined by the most stocks ever on the NYSE + NASDAQ making new 52-week highs.

Small-cap leadership is intensifying as stocks reflect better than expected earnings and optimism about the path of economic growth.

Financials and Energy climbed in our S&P 500 relative strength rankings last week. Curiously, among small-cap sectors, Financials have been more of a laggard than a leader. With Consumer Discretionary slipping in this week’s rankings, Technology has moved back into the top spot. Small-caps dominating large-caps in our industry group relative strength rankings is not too surprising given that the top nine groups on a YTD return basis come from the small-cap index and the bottom four groups all come from the large-cap index.