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Divergence City

May 21, 2023

Some things are changing.

Have you noticed?

Let's keep something in mind. During healthy market environments, you historically see correlations falling.

It's when volatility spikes in bear markets that correlations all go to 1.

So are these recent divergences just further evidence that this is a strong market for stocks?

The breadth expansion and sector rotation we keep seeing certainly points to that.

So let's take a look.

Happy New 52-week High

May 20, 2023

I've been at this for 20 years. I've seen a lot of uptrends and bull markets in my day. I've studied many more that came before me.

Along the way, do you know what you'll find a lot of in bull markets?

New 52-week highs.

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The Hall of Famers (05-19-2023)

May 19, 2023

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza and Alfonso Depablos @AlfCharts

Our Hall of Famers list is composed of the 150 largest US-based stocks.

These stocks range from the mega-cap growth behemoths like Apple and Microsoft – with market caps in excess of $2T – to some of the new-age large-cap disruptors such as Moderna, Square, and Snap.

It has all the big names and more.

It doesn’t include ADRs or any stock not domiciled in the US. But don’t worry; we developed a separate universe for that. You can click here to check it out.

The Hall of Famers is simple.

We take our list of 150 names and then apply our technical filters so the strongest stocks with the most momentum rise to the top.

Let’s dive right in and check out what these big boys are up to.

Here’s this week’s list:

Click table to enlarge view

We filter out any laggards that are down -5% or more relative to the S&P 500 over the trailing month. ...

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Breakout Alert: Cotton Revisits the Scene of the Crime

May 19, 2023

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Watch out for cotton!

Back in February, I highlighted a bullish setup in cotton futures

Buyers were hammering a key retracement level from below. The way I learned it, "The more times a level is tested, the higher the likelihood it breaks."

Three months later…

The July contract is knocking on the door – again!

How polite.

Check out July cotton nearing the January 2022 closing high of 88.34:

That’s my level.

If and when the July contract breaks above 88.50 (let’s give it a little room), I like it long with an initial target of approximately 106. I’m also watching for a 14-day RSI reading greater than 70 for bullish confirmation.

Not all contracts are approaching buy zones this week....

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[Options Premium] Adding Some Short Exposure

May 19, 2023

It's been a good run for many of our bullish long trades. As such, it wouldn't surprise me if stocks took a bit of a breather soon.

And considering so many stocks we've been tracking are starting to look pretty extended, I'm going to go fishing in the weak stocks pond to find some opportunities for portfolio diversification in the event that stocks go sideways or dip a little bit in the weeks ahead.

One nice thing is the stock market lift this week has really zapped options premiums across the board. So today's trade offers us a somewhat rare opportunity to get responsibly short with long puts.

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Will Bonds Catch Up to Tech Stocks?

May 18, 2023

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Tech stocks don’t care about the manufactured debt limit crisis. Nor are they bothered by the increasing probability of a rate hike next month.

Growth stocks seem concerned with only one thing – printing fresh highs.

The Tech sector ETF $XLK posted new 52-week highs yesterday. And the Communications ETF $XLC rallied within reach after taking out its Aug. ‘22 pivot highs. 

So where does that leave bonds and other long-duration assets? 

If these base breakouts across growth sectors hold, I imagine bonds have some serious catching up to do…

Why?

Growth stocks tend to trend with bonds since they’re both long-duration assets. Changes in interest rates directly impact US Treasuries and affect tech stocks more than other equities.

Check out the tight relationship between the Long-Term Treasury ETF $TLT and the Technology sector $XLK:

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