Where I come from do you know what we call higher lows and higher highs?

Uptrends.

Do you know what stocks do in bull markets?

They go up.

And speaking of going up, we just watched the Small-cap Russell2000 Index go out at new 10-month highs.

Do you know what's not evidence of a downtrend?

New 10-month highs.

The largest insider buy on today's list is a Form 4 filing by Randal Kirk, the executive chairman of Precigen $PGEN.

Kirk revealed the purchase of roughly $20 million of his own stock from him, increasing his ownership stake to 46.2%.

From the Desk of Kimmy Sokoloff

Hello, February! Let's see if you can live up to January.

Today is Fed day. I'm  sure we'll see wild swings in both directions initially, and then the market will subside.

These are the registration details for our Live Monthly Candlestick Strategy Session for Premium Members of All Star Charts.

This month’s Video Conference Call will be held on Monday February 6th @ 6PM ET. As always, if you cannot make the call live, the video and slides will be archived and published here along with every other live call since 2015.

Here are the details for Monday evening:

We had a resting GTC order filled at our profit target in the Paid-to-Play portfolio today:

It’s easy to follow a trading plan when the price action is moving our way. We feel like geniuses.

Look at me! I’m so smart! The stock market is doing exactly what I planned for it to do! Let’s go car shopping!

But how do I feel if the price action goes the other way?

Assuming I’ve put a trading plan together that accounts for both the possibility of being right AND the possibility of being wrong, why should I feel any different when the price goes the wrong way?

What’s the point of putting together a detailed trading plan if I later exit the position following the first price move in the opposite direction I hoped for?

Why go through all that effort?

From the Desk of Kimmy Sokoloff

We closed January, the first month of the year.

And it's a positive start for 2023.

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

Both our Risk On Index and our Risk On and Risk Off (RO/RO) Ratio have climbed to their highest levels since early last year and in the process crossed back above key levels that provided support during 2021 but were violated as conditions deteriorated in 2022.

Why It Matters: After an unprecedented combination of volatility and weakness in 2022, we are looking for evidence that the strength that has been seen in January marks a sustainable departure from last year and not just more of the same. There is still work to be done from a longer-term trend perspective and macro questions linger. Unlike the rallies that emerged and faded in 2022, however, this year’s gains are being accompanied by more appetite for risk. As long as the Risk On index and the RO/RO ratio are showing improvement (and that improvement is being confirmed elsewhere) it is probably premature to lean against the strength we have seen. That being said, not all opportunities are created equally....

The next new position in our Paid-to-Play portfolio is:

It's a market of stocks.

People forget that.

They choose to obsess over every tick in the S&P500 or Nasdaq instead of recognizing what's happening among the actual components of those indexes.

As it turns out, this has become one of our competitive advantages.

If you're wondering why we tend to be ahead of the curve on changes in major trends, I would point to this.

Most people don't have the time (or are too lazy) to sit there and count how many stocks are going up vs how many are going down.

This is it.

When people ask us what's been happening in the world of crypto, this is the chart we show them.

Bitcoin -- and crypto more generally -- has been a big nothingburger for over a year. Especially with Bitcoin trading below its prior cycle highs, there was absolutely nothing to be done in this asset class.

But that all changed a few weeks ago.

The largest insider buy on today’s list is a Form 4 filing by CD&R Boulder Holdings LP.

The firm revealed a purchase of approximately $6 million worth of shares in Beacon Roofing Supply $BECN.

From the Desk of Kimmy Sokoloff

The market is following through from yesterday's action, and we're gapping lower this morning.

I'm watching support on $SPY at 398.30.

I think about thinking quite a bit.

Maybe it's because I've read too many Annie Duke books.

But as much as I love Annie's work, it's the whole behavioral finance thing that I'm obsessed over.

I can't get enough of it.

To name a few of my favorites, Dr. Brett Steenbarger, Denise Shull, Daniel Crosby, ...

It's the weekly Gold Rush!

While Gold futures digest overhead supply, strength broadens across the metals space.

Check it out...

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Plenty of gold bugs have Krugerrands buried in their backyard or basement –  if not secured in a safety deposit box at their local bank.

It’s no wonder gold falls under the “end-of-the-world” category of assets.

Regardless, gold prices can also rise with risk assets.

I raise this point not only as an important reminder but because it’s pivotal to understanding our bullish thesis for precious metals.

It’s a metals story….

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Welcome to our latest Minor Leaguers report.

We've had some great trades come out of this small-cap-focused column since we launched it back in 2020 and started rotating it with our flagship bottom-up scan, Under the Hood.

For the first year or so, we focused only on Russell 2000 stocks with a market cap between $1 and $2B.

That was fun, but we wanted to branch out a bit and allow some new stocks to find their way onto our list.

We expanded our universe to include some mid-caps.

To make the cut for our Minor Leaguers list, a company must have a market cap between $1 and $4B.

And it doesn't have to be a Russell component — it can be any US-listed equity. With participation expanding around the globe, we want all those ADRs in our universe.

The same price and liquidity filters are applied. Then, as always, we sort by proximity to...

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @sstrazza and Alfonso Depablos @Alfcharts

This is one of our favorite bottom-up scans: Follow the Flow.

In this note, we simply create a universe of stocks that experienced the most unusual options activity — either bullish or bearish, but not both.

We utilize options experts, both internally and through our partnership with The TradeXchange. Then, we dig through the level 2 details and do all the work upfront for our clients.

Our goal is to isolate only those options market splashes that represent levered and high-conviction, directional bets.

We also weed out hedging activity and ensure there are no offsetting trades that either neutralize or cap the risk on these unusual options trades.

What remains is a list of stocks that large financial institutions are putting big money behind.

And they’re doing so for one reason only: because they think...

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Check out this week's Momentum Report, our weekly summation of all the major indexes at a Macro, International, Sector, and Industry Group level.

By analyzing the short-term data in these reports, we get a more tactical view of the current state of markets. This information then helps us put near-term developments into the big picture context and provides insights regarding the structural trends at play.

Let's jump right into it with some of the major takeaways from this week's report:

* ASC Plus Members can access the Momentum Report by clicking the link at the bottom of this post.

Macro Universe:

• This week, our macro universe was positive, with 68% of our list closing higher with a median return of 0.48%.
• Lumber $LB was the winner again, closing with a 14.32% gain.
• The biggest loser was the Volatility Index $VIX, with a weekly loss of -6.75%.
• There was a 2% gain in the percentage of assets on our list within 5% of their 52-week highs – currently at 13%.
• 55% of our macro list made fresh 4-week highs, and 36...

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Our Top 10 Charts Report was just published.

In this weekly note, we highlight 10 of the most important charts or themes we’re currently seeing in asset classes around the world.

Investors Reach for Risk

Last week, the High Beta (SPHB) versus Low Volatility (SPLV) ratio reached its highest level since April of last year. This action speaks to risk-seeking behavior and offensive positioning. As long as these new highs hold, we're looking for equity markets to follow higher in the coming weeks.

From the Desk of Kimmy Sokoloff

The market sold off most of the day, and, as of now, we're holding at $SPX 4,015.

Should we break below the eight-day moving average, we can head to SPX 3,992.