From the Desk of Kimmy Sokoloff

It was a powerful day in the market. $SPY closed its gap at 396.31 and pushed along.

I said in the live trading room a week back that SPY has potential up to 405, then 410.  

This is the video recording of the January 12th, 2023, Weekly Town Hall w/ Willie Delwiche.

1/12/23 2:00 PM ET

We had a resting GTC order filled at our profit target in the Paid-to-Play portfolio today:

We've adjusted a position in the Paid-to-Play portfolio today:

From the Desk of Louis Sykes

Every child loves a bedtime story.

These stories allow their mind to wander from busy thoughts into an adventure. It provides a comforting reality and a narrative they can consciously control.

Comically, in this sense, children and investors are more similar than we let on.

It's just that one obtains comfort from an adventurous tale while the other derives solace in news headlines.

Don't get me wrong, I'm not saying this is bad or wrong. I'm just noting its existence.

The vast majority of investors need to understand why a stock is moving rather than solely following technicals and money flow.

I totally get it.

Today's Hot List is a short one.

The only Form 4 on our list was filed by the chief marketing officer of Dave & Buster's Entertainment $PLAY, who revealed a small purchase of $149,684.

This activity comes on the heels of a handful of Form 4 and Form 13 filings for PLAY by Hill Path Capital over the past month.

From the Desk of Kimmy Sokoloff

With the December CPI up on deck for release at 8:30 a.m. ET, I think I'll hold off on talking about ideas until the data is released.

Let's see how the market reacts.

A question that keeps coming up to me is why Consumer Staples and Low Volatility stocks are outperforming.

These are normally the types of things you see when stocks in general are under pressure.

This is the kind of rotation you get in bear markets.

But the back half of 2022 was good for stocks. The 4th quarter was great.

Most stocks have been ripping for almost 7 months now. This is NOT the type of environment where Staples and Low Volatility stocks tend to outperform.

And while they might be making new multi-year highs relative to the S&P500, it's pretty easy to outperform an index with so much exposure to growth stocks. So can we even call that 'outperformance'?

This week we're looking into the Infrastructure sector.

We retired our "Five Bull Market Barometers" in 2020 to make room for a new weekly post that's focused on the three most important charts for the week ahead.

This is that post, so let's jump into this week's edition.

It's the weekly currency edition of What the FICC?

Is the dollar going to finally bounce?

I have no idea, but the euro will likely answer that question in the coming days.

Check it out!

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

When investing in the stock market, we always want to approach it as "a market of stocks."

Regardless of the environment, there are always stocks showing leadership and trending higher.

We may have to look harder to identify them depending on current market conditions. But there are always stocks that are going up.

The same can be said for weak stocks. Regardless of the environment, there are always stocks that are going down, too. 

We already have multiple scans focusing on stocks making all-time highs, such as The Hall of Famers, The Minor Leaguers, and The 2 to 100 Club.

We filter these universes for stocks that are exhibiting the best momentum and relative strength characteristics. 

Clearly, we spend a lot of time identifying and writing about leading stocks every week, via multiple reports.

Now, we're also highlighting lagging stocks on a regular basis.

Welcome to the Short Report.

...

From the Desk of Kimmy Sokoloff

The market gapped up nicely and held strong today.

We've got CPI in the morning, so be on your toes.

With the NFL Playoffs getting underway this weekend (Go Bills!), it's time we put the offense on the field!

I was kicking around a bullish idea in a consumer staples name during our Analyst meeting today. The chart looks great. The setup is good. We can position for a nice potential reward versus the risk we'd incur to put the trade on. Everyone agreed that its probably a good trade.

But... is it aggressive enough?

Answer: No, it's not.

The thinking that emerged from our chat was that risk is back on in the stock market; therefore, we need to get into the most reasonably aggressive names we can. And one of the areas where risk is most definitely "on" is in the homebuilders sector.

If all we did was watch the evening news or listen to the inflation and interest rate scaremongers, we'd reasonably conclude that a long-term and painful bear market for real estate and housing in particular is a slam dunk. No contest.

If a severe real estate bear market was in the cards, would we be seeing homebuilders ripping of their recent lows the way we have over the past couple of months?

Check out this chart of Toll Brothers $TOL...

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

Over the course of 2022, the two-year (8-quarter) return for the aggregate household portfolio dropped from one of the highest levels in over 40 years to underwater for the first time in over a decade.     

Why It Matters: Sentiment soured in 2022 but investors largely stuck with their equity exposure. They choose not to meaningfully increase their exposure to bonds or cash (and commodity funds actually experienced outflows last year). Now investors are reviewing portfolios that didn’t just experience a bad year, but are actually down over the past two years. This is unfamiliar territory for a generation of investors who are not used to sustained weakness and who see US large-cap equities as the only game in town. 

2022 was a bruising experience for many and 2023 is an opportunity to put aside broken paradigms and embrace forgotten realities. My expectation is that this leads to overdue discussions about proper diversification and adaptive positioning, across and within asset classes....

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Is the dollar going to finally bounce?

As I pointed out last week, if there was ever a place or time – it's’ now! But that doesn’t mean it’ll happen…. 

One thing is certain: The markets don’t care what I think. This includes the US dollar.

But when I look at a chart of the EUR/USD, the largest component of the US Dollar Index $DXY, it’s running into a logical level of resistance.

How the euro reacts to current levels will set the tone for the dollar in the coming weeks and months.

Check out the daily chart of the EUR/USD:

First, let’s break down momentum in the lower pane.

The 14-day RSI has broken out of a bearish momentum regime, printing a bullish overbought reading last month. This indicates momentum has shifted in...

This is the video recording of our January 11, 2023, Inside Scoop Weekly Strategy Session.

We've adjusted a position in the Paid-to-Play portfolio today:

You seeing this?

Riot Blockchain $RIOT is rebranding to Riot Platforms "amid a bleak outlook for the crypto industry."

You can't make this up.

Only after the stock has stumbled into a 96% drawdown do they change the name of the company.

The only Form 4 on today’s list was filed by the chairman and CEO of Erasca $ERAS, who revealed a purchase of $231,420.

Aequim Alternative Investments filed a 13G reporting a passive ownership stake of just over 5% in the oil & gas explorer, Chesapeake Energy $CHK.

From the Desk of Kimmy Sokoloff

Yesterday we saw a lot of whipsaw.

And then we had a slow grind higher to finish the day above the 50-day moving average on $SPY at 389.92.