From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

Household equity exposure (as a percentage of total liquid assets) fell again in the third quarter dropping from 56% to 54%. It was at its highest level ever (62%) coming into this year and remains high by historical standards (90th percentile).    

Why It Matters: When equity exposure made a new high and then reversed in 2000, it ushered in a lost decade for stocks. The S&P 500 was no higher in late 2012 than it was in early 2000. The same was true in 1968. The S&P 500 was no higher in mid 1979 than it was in late 1968. While stocks were going sideways, household equity exposure was in secular decline. Equity exposure fell from 55% in Q4 1968 to 27% in Q4 1974 (when the S&P 500 bottomed). It dropped from 61% in Q1 2000 to 32% at the stock market low in Q1 2009. From this perspective, 2022 looks less like a one-off decline and more like year 1 of a secular bear market for equities. Opportunities will emerge and fade, but expecting a quick return to the market environment of the...

This is the video recording of our December 14, 2022, Inside Scoop Weekly Strategy Session.

The next new position in our Paid-to-Play portfolio is:

For the longest time, understanding this market has been a simple matter of following the correlations.

Crypto has acted as yet another short volatility trade, with Bitcoin, Ethereum, and other altcoins closely tracking US growth stocks.

And there's a firm inverse correlation to the US dollar, which up until recently had been a headwind for most of the year.

It's no coincidence that we've seen gains in US markets ever since the dollar cooled off.

But, like most aspects of technical analysis, it's important to step back and identify the broader trends at work.

From the Desk of Kimmy Sokoloff

We have the FOMC decision and Fed Chair Powell up at bat today.

I guess the market will be judging Powell's overall tone to see if and when the Fed will start to pivot.

The largest insider buy on today’s list comes in a Form 4 filing by the CEO of SoFi Technologies $SOFI, Anthony Noto.

Noto disclosed a $5 million purchase of SOFI shares.

We retired our "Five Bull Market Barometers" in 2020 to make room for a new weekly post that's focused on the three most important charts for the week ahead.

This is that post, so let's jump into this week's edition.

The market breadth has definitely improved, but certain stocks are pushing higher on momentum, and we're here to identify just those! This week, we have a stock from the Financial Sector.

It's the weekly currency edition of What the FICC?

The forex and futures markets will provide bountiful ways to trade a weakening dollar.

But what's the best option?

Check it out!

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

We held our December Monthly Strategy Session last week. Premium Members can access and rewatch it here.

Non-members can get a quick recap of the call simply by reading this post each month.

By focusing on long-term, monthly charts, the idea is to take a step back and put things into the context of their structural trends. This is easily one of our most valuable exercises as it forces us to put aside the day-to-day noise and simply examine markets from a “big-picture” point of view.

With that as our backdrop, let’s dive right in and discuss three of the most important charts and/or themes from this month’s call.

From the Desk of Kimmy Sokoloff

November CPI came in better than expected, and the market was up over 2% at the open then drifted lower all morning.

The $SPY was up at 410 and dropped down to 399, roughly.

There was a lot of profit-taking, and a lot of good short ideas were out there to be had.

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

The forex and futures markets will provide bountiful ways to trade a weakening dollar.

Unfortunately, some of our initial attempts to capitalize on dollar weakness have fallen flat. 

We’re not surprised – especially since market conditions remain challenging. But that won’t deter us from moving forward and finding the best trade setups.

As always, a viable trade comes down to two critical components: a well-defined risk level and a risk/reward profile heavily skewed in our favor.

And, of course, you know how much we like relative strength. 

That brings us to a vehicle that challenges the definition of "currency." 

That's gold.

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

Portfolio Update: Precious metals have been showing signs of life relative to base metals for some time. For example, the trend in the copper/gold ratio has favored gold 40 weeks in a row. Silver has also gotten in on the action and with it holding above a key level last week, we are adding it to our Tactical Opportunity portfolio this week.

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

The market’s focus is moving on from monthly inflation prints and toward the health & resiliency of the economy in light of the cumulative tightening by the Fed. Our macro health status report remains mixed, but is holding steady for now.

Why It Matters: Stocks celebrated the release of the November CPI report that showed inflation cooling more than expected. Those early gains have proven hard to hold on to. At this point, peak inflation is a rear-view issue and the path of inflation going forward is more important for the market. It is possible that it retreats quickly, but more plausible that after an initial pullback it stabilizes at a relatively high level. The sticky CPI (published by the Atlanta Fed) actually moved to a new high in November. As the market reckons with the path of inflation, the need for additional rate hikes and the impact on the economy of all this, our health status report will provide a timely assessment of the most important question...

We've adjusted a position in the Paid-to-Play portfolio today:

Have you heard the news?

Binance is the latest FTX!

Seriously, have you seen all the red flags?

It's insolvent, bro.

Just trust me, bro.

Alright, in all seriousness, there's been a fair amount of rumors surrounding Binance's solvency this week. This narrative originated from Binance's ambiguous proof-of-reserves and internal audits.

Following these questions, Binance saw a net outflow of $1.3B over the last few days, with many prominent trading firms withdrawing nine-figure amounts.

And Binance's public image has been under fire, with the company's official Twitter account leaking a private chat log featuring a crypto trader with over 280,000 followers.

&t=fR90RnxS-wMvfuZ9QTljWA

If I've learned anything about being involved with crypto, it's to verify, not trust.

It doesn't matter what CZ or Binance says. Everybody lies.

Follow the money: It's the only truth in all this noise. It's why we put a premium on price action. It's the only fact that matters.

Personally, I don't have any of my Bitcoin on exchanges. I don't trust them. If it's not your keys, it's not your crypto.

From the Desk of Kimmy Sokoloff

Futures are up big this morning. Now we'll see what the November CPI data brings this morning at 8:30 a.m. ET.

The $SPX futures are trading roughly at their 200-day moving average at 4,050.

The largest insider buy on today’s list comes in a Form 4 filing by Jeff Aronson.

Aronson revealed a purchase of roughly $1.2 million in GoHealth $GOCO.

It's that time of the year again.

The infamous Santa Claus rally is just around the corner.

And contrary to popular belief, it doesn't start until the end of next week.

The official period for the Santa Claus rally includes the last 5 trading days of the year and the first two of the following year.

Based on the 2022/2023 holiday schedule, that means this year's Santa Claus Rally begins on Friday December 23th and goes through Wednesday January 4th.

These 7 days have historically had a ridiculous track record, averaging over a 1.3% return for the S&P500 and coming in positive almost 80% of the time.

Since 1950, all other 7-day periods throughout the year only average 0.24% returns and were positive less than 60% of the time.

That's real alpha.