The uptrend for bonds peaked in early 2021. The trend for stocks did so a year later. Commodities peaked in June and over the past few months the trend has been slowly (an unevenly rolling over). 

More Context: It could always reverse higher, but the commodity trend has fallen two weeks in a row and is down in 6 of the past 10 weeks. As the summer peak in commodities moves further into the rear-view mirror, it looks increasingly like all three of the major asset classes are now in downtrends. This leaves investors with fewer places of refuge as the most challenging year in a generation grinds to a close. Business cycle history suggests that the next important turn in trend will be bonds turning higher (and bond yields turning lower). It hasn’t happened yet (despite the recent drop in bond yields) but our long-term trend indicators suggest bonds are closer to turning higher than stocks (and bonds are trending higher relative to stocks). While the pattern is not set in stone, equities have not made the case that...

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Check out this week's Momentum Report, our weekly summation of all the major indexes at a Macro, International, Sector, and Industry Group level.

By analyzing the short-term data in these reports, we get a more tactical view of the current state of markets. This information then helps us put near-term developments into the big picture context and provides insights regarding the structural trends at play.

Let's jump right into it with some of the major takeaways from this week's report:

* ASC Plus Members can access the Momentum Report by clicking the link at the bottom of this post.

Macro Universe:

• This week, our macro universe was positive, with 89% of our list closing higher with a median return of 1.26%.
• Silver $SI was the winner, closing with a 7.50% gain.
• The biggest loser was the Volatility Index $VIX, with a weekly loss of -7.02%.
• There was a 2% gain in the percentage of assets on our list within 5% of their 52-week highs – currently at 4%.
• 79% of our macro list made fresh 4-week highs, and 45% made...

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Our Top 10 Charts Report was just published.

In this weekly note, we highlight 10 of the most important charts or themes we're currently seeing in asset classes around the world.

China Bulls Take Charge

Chinese equities have emerged as some of the unlikely leaders among global markets. In the last month, China Internet ETF (KWEB) and iShares China Large-Cap ETF (FXI) have risen 31% and 19%, respectively. Meanwhile, Emerging Markets (EEM) are only up about 8.5% over the same period.

From the Desk of Kimmy Sokoloff

What a wipeout in the indices. We've almost retraced all of last week’s move.

The $SPX broke below 4,050, and it was downhill all day. 

The next new position in our Paid-to-Play portfolio is:

It's been impossible to ignore.

Equities and cyclicals have seen some modest gains off the lows, while growth areas and crypto markets have waned. In fact, by our calculations, this year has seen one of the greatest disparities in performance between growth and value.

You can see it when you compare something like Bitcoin or Ethereum against the Dow Jones Industrial Average.

Sure, crypto markets have been dragged down by the FTX contagion. Still, perhaps the bigger driver of this price action has been the macro flow out of long-duration growth assets (crypto included) and into traditional value areas.

We're talking industrials, materials, and, of course, energy stocks.

But let's not forget the broad picture.

From the Desk of Kimmy Sokoloff

The indices are pulling in this morning.

We're still in consolidation mode after last week's rally.

The largest insider transaction on today’s list is a Form 4 filed by Wayne P. Rothbaum, the president of Quogue Capital LLC.

The investment firm revealed a purchase worth $65 million in Iovance Biotherapeutics $IOVA.

Let me ask you this: In bear markets does it historically get easier and easier to find stocks making new all-time highs?

Where I grew up, new all-time highs, yet alone more and more of them every day, are not something that we normally see in bear markets.

And here we are. I can't remember the last time it was this easy to find stocks breaking out to new highs. And not just new 3-month highs or even 52-week highs.

Stocks are breaking out to new ALL-TIME Highs.

And not just in one or two sectors.

We're seeing it in Financials, Industrials, Technology, Energy, Healthcare, Staples, Telecom and more.

This is the weekly post that aggregates all the charts we put together throughout the week and organizes them all into one, easy to flip through deck.

It's the weekly commodity edition of What the FICC?

Today we're checking back on two recent trades from October -- coffee and orange juice.

Check it out!

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza and Alfonso Depablos @AlfCharts

Our Hall of Famers list is composed of the 150 largest US-based stocks.

These stocks range from the mega-cap growth behemoths like Apple and Microsoft – with market caps in excess of $2T – to some of the new-age large-cap disruptors such as Moderna, Square, and Snap.

It has all the big names and more.

It doesn’t include ADRs or any stock not domiciled in the US. But don’t worry; we developed a separate universe for that which you can check out here.

The Hall of Famers is simple.

We take our list of 150 names and then apply our technical filters so the strongest stocks with the most momentum rise to the top.

Let’s dive right in and check out what these big boys are up to.

Here’s this week’s list:

Click table to enlarge view

We filter out any laggards that are down -5% or more relative to the S&P 500 over the trailing...

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Precious metals shine as the dollar drops.

It makes sense our bullish metal trades are working in this environment. But how are less dollar-sensitive contracts faring?

Let’s check back on two recent trades from October, coffee and orange juice.

First up is the orange juice futures contract:

OJ came within striking distance of our upside objective last month.

It’s now carving out a near-term top while posting a bearish momentum divergence – not the most bullish price action.

Regardless, I want to give OJ the benefit of the doubt as long as it holds above our 191 risk level. All bets are off if it breaks below that mark.

At the same time, selling a breakdown here does not appeal to me. The price memory below 191 has "chop-fest" written all over it!

And,...

From the Desk of Kimmy Sokoloff

After this morning’s dip lower, the $SPX mostly based around its 200-day moving average.

Overall, it was a tough week. We traded lower the first part of the week, and then came Powell...

From the Desk of Willie Delwiche.

As the dollar was peaking in late-September, 4% of world markets were above their 50-day average and 4% were above their 200-day average. The dollar now is 8% of that peak (and below its 200-day average for the first time since June 2021). More than two-thirds of ACWI markets are now above their 200-day averages (the most in over a year) and nearly 95% are above their 50-day average (the most in nearly 2 years).  

Why It Matters: Dollar weakness may be the catalyst (or one of several catalysts), but the important development is improving global breadth. That is typically supportive of US stocks. Beyond that, dynamics in the current environment are actually pointing to a changing of the guard in terms of global leadership. The US has seen its relative strength wane while Europe and other developed markets have taken the lead. For US investors, this means abandoning home country bias and embracing global diversification.      

I'm not sure what everyone is so angry about, but I like it.

The pessimism out there is off the charts.

Investors are scared.

Risk aversion is dominating. Risk appetite is non-existent.

The next new position in our Paid-to-Play portfolio is:

This is the video recording of our December 2, 2022, All Star Charts Crypto Weekly Strategy Session.

This is the best time to buy stocks during the entire 4-year Presidential Cycle.

And guess what investors are doing?

They've been buying stocks...

The largest insider buy on today’s list is a Form 4 filing by Vishay Precision Group $VPG Director Wes Cummins.

Cummins revealed a purchase of VPG worth $802,067.