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Hot Corner Insider

The Inside Scoop (09-15-2022)

September 15, 2022

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Although volatility has returned to equity markets this week, we continue to see pockets of strength in a variety of areas and individual stocks from our Inside Scoop universe.

While many of the strongest names continue to struggle in terms of breaking out and sustaining new highs, just as many are showing impressive resilience despite the broad market weakness.

Here we’ll outline a trade setup in a small-cap stock that’s coiling near fresh highs.

In lieu of this week’s Strategy Session, we’ll also run through some of the names from our Inside Scoop universe that stand out.

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Yields Pack a Punch

September 15, 2022

From the Desk of Ian Culley @Ianculley

Interest rates have resumed their ascent following a brief summer pause. And, in recent weeks, their climb has accelerated.

Aside from lower bond prices, what do higher rates mean for other assets, such as stocks and commodities?

It might seem like a simple question. But its relevance is undeniable given the current market conditions.

We’ve been vocal about the cyclical areas of the market that benefit most from a rising rate environment – think commodities, energy, materials, and banks. We’ve put out plenty of trade ideas in those areas.

But not all risk assets enjoy a tailwind when yields rise.

Higher rates mean downside pressure for long-duration assets in general, not just bonds. This also includes growth stocks!

Check out the chart of the US Treasury Bond ETF $TLT overlaid with the growth-versus-value ratio...

Breadth Thrusts & Bread Crusts: Playing Possum

September 15, 2022

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

Something was getting into our grapes. 

That much we knew. We could see the evidence in the mess under our arbor every morning. Our dog was also aware of its presence. But we didn’t know exactly what “it” was – until Friday.

Rather than waiting patiently by the back screen door, the dog was crouched as if he was in starting blocks. He was ready to launch himself onto the scene.

He sprinted to the grape arbor, and after a brief glance at the vines, he raced along the fence. Within moments, he had his prey, shook it vigorously (as he has done in the past), and dropped a limp body. I walked over to get my first glimpse of the intruder. 

Laying motionless at the dog’s feet was a not insubstantial possum.

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[Options Premium] Betting on Staples Holding Steady

September 15, 2022

What a wild week, eh? On Tuesday, the rug got pulled on dip buyers with the latest inflation data point coming in hot, throwing a whole bunch of confusion into the market regarding the future of interest rates. Or, so I'm told.

The net result for us options traders is that there is once again some juicy options premium for us to sell into. And we've got a bunch of sloppy ETF charts that look primed for some net sideways actions over the near term.

 

 

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It's All One Market

September 15, 2022

Earlier this morning, the long-awaited Ethereum merge was finalized.

Ethereum has successfully transitioned into the proof-of-stake (PoS) model, leaving Bitcoin as the only proof-of-work (PoW) blockchain of scale.

This is a major turning point, particularly in an ideological sense. The debate between the PoS and PoW frameworks will only intensify following this transition.

 

 

 

ET's Warren Makes Another Big Buy

September 15, 2022

H Partners Management filed a Form 4 reporting the purchase of roughly $4.6 million in the theme parks corporation Six Flags Entertainment $SIX.

The hedge fund now has a total stake in SIX of more than 11.50%.

The All Star Momentum Scan

September 15, 2022

We debuted a new scan recently which goes by the name- All Star Momentum.

All Star Momentum is a brand new scan that guides us towards the very best stocks in the market. We have incorporated our stock universe of Nifty 500 as the base this time around. Among the 500 stocks that we follow, this scan will pump out names that are most likely to outperform the market.

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2 to 100 Club

2 to 100 Club (09-14-2022)

September 14, 2022

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Welcome to the 2 to 100 Club.

As many of you know, something we've been working on internally is using various bottom-up tools and scans to complement our top-down approach. It's really been working for us!

One way we're doing this is by identifying the strongest growth stocks as they climb the market-cap ladder from small- to mid- to large- and, ultimately, to mega-cap status (over $200B).

Once they graduate from small-cap to mid-cap status (over $2B), they come on our radar. Likewise, when they surpass the roughly $30B mark, they roll off our list.

But the scan doesn't just end there.

We only want to look at the strongest growth industries in the market, as that is typically where these potential 50-baggers come from.

Some of the best performers in recent decades – stocks like Priceline, Amazon, Netflix, Salesforce, and myriad others – would have been on this list at some point during their journey...

[PLUS] Weekly Sentiment Report

September 14, 2022

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

Key Takeaway: The bulls have some heavy lifting as bears pack on the pounds. Yes, last week was impressive, as was the summer rally. But questions about sustainability remain. After all, in the wake of the greatest bull market rally in history in 2020/2021, it shouldn’t be surprising to get the most significant bear market rally ever in 2022. That leaves stocks with an uphill battle in the face of persistent macro headwinds (rising interest rates, dwindling growth expectations, and unrelenting US dollar strength). While pessimism has reached levels indicating opportunity and decreased risk for longs, downside risks remain. An increase in selling pressure could excite the bear camp, prompting a more complete unwind in equity exposure and accelerating interest in bonds even if yields continue to move higher.

Sentiment Report Chart of the Week: Bonds Unloved For Long Enough?

Quarterly data from the Federal Reserve shows investors are getting more interested in bonds, albeit...

All Star Charts Crypto

All Eyes on Ethereum

September 14, 2022

Risk markets tanked yesterday after the release of CPI data for August, as inflation numbers ran hot against expectations.

Crypto markets especially felt the heat, with Bitcoin dropping 10% on the day and Ethereum posting an 8.5% drop.

With the CPI print behind us, yet another volatile event is on the horizon. That's the Ethereum merge, which is on track to happen in the next 24 hours.

In the past, we've mentioned that the merge is merely a narrative, as Ethereum is just tracking with the equity markets.

While this still holds true, it would be natural to expect a brief decoupling between Ethereum and equities, given the skewed positioning within the futures markets.

Yesterday, we talked about the likelihood that Ethereum funding would dip in parabolic fashion leading to the merge.

And, since then, funding has taken a dramatic hit.

 

 

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Don’t Fight the Trend

September 13, 2022

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Sometimes you have to go back to the basics. 

One simple concept has served me well over the years: Don’t fight the primary trend.

There are many other best practices I use to maintain my sanity regardless of underlying market conditions. But sticking with the underlying trend is fundamental to any trader’s success. 

As Charles Dow established more than a hundred years ago, trends persist! This concept is one of the key Dow Theory tenets and forms the foundation of any trend-following strategy.

It’s our job as technicians, traders, and investors to identify the primary trend and ride it as long as possible. 

And it’s difficult to imagine a stronger trend in 2022 than the rising dollar.

[PLUS] Weekly Market Perspectives - Inflation Fight Not Finished

September 13, 2022

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

Key Takeaways:

  • Labor market imbalances are fueling a persistent rise in inflation
  • Median CPI hitting new highs means inflation has not peaked 
  • Equities will need to reckon with more Fed tightening and higher bond yields

Surging inflation over the past year has always been about more than just planes, trains, and automobiles - how much they cost to purchase and how much they cost to operate. Too much of the focus has been on the inflation outliers like the spike & cooling in used car prices or the surge and collapse in gasoline prices. Those are post-COVID talking points, but not really drivers of the underlying trend in inflation. So while headline CPI and (to a lesser extent) core CPI get the headlines, median CPI continues to trend higher, as it was doing pre-COVID and as it has been doing in recent months.

Imbalances in the labor market are driving this trend - which suggests that getting inflation under control will be inconsistent with a soft-landing for the economy. This isn’t just...