From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

With stocks posting a broad rally this week, we found a handful of names from our Inside Scoop universe that are on the verge of breaking out from bullish chart patterns.

As we discussed on Wednesday’s call, even the leaders are struggling to hold new highs lately.

For this reason, we want to be patient with these setups and be prepared for false starts.

With that said, these are some of the strongest names from the strongest industry groups right now. 

If the market is kicking off a fresh rally, these are the kinds of stocks we expect to lead it.

We've been keeping a keen eye on Uranian stocks over the past few weeks. Throughout the recent broader market weakness, it became a common refrain in our internal analyst meetings: "...we're still seeing relative strength in Uranium stocks."

When we keep saying that over and over, maybe the market is trying to tell us something?  *slaps head*

The stock that seems the strongest to us in the sector has been showing signs this week that it's ready to break out. So let's get to work.

This is the video recording of our September 9, 2022, All Star Charts Crypto Weekly Strategy Session.

The next new trade in our Paid-to-Play portfolio is:

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

We held our September Monthly Strategy Session Tuesday night. Premium Members can click here to watch the recording and review the chartbook.

Non-members can get a quick recap of the call simply by reading this post each month.

By focusing on long-term, monthly charts, the idea is to take a step back and put things into the context of their structural trends.

This is easily one of our most valuable exercises as it forces us to put aside the day-to-day noise and simply examine markets from a “big-picture” point of view.

With that as our backdrop, let’s dive right in and discuss three of the most important charts and/or themes from this month’s call.

The largest insider transaction on today's list is a Form 4 filing by Loews Corp.

The New York City-based investment conglomerate reported a purchase of roughly $5.7 million in CNA Financial Corp $CNA.

This is the weekly post that aggregates all the charts we put together throughout the week and organizes them all into one, easy to flip through deck.

You notice how folks these days are all up in other people's business?

What do the decisions other people make with their money have to do with you? or me?

I don't care if someone I don't know makes an irresponsible trade and blows up their account.

Why is that my problem?

Let them blow up.

It's probably for the best anyway. You gotta learn somehow.

But that's not of my concern.

You want to put all your life savings into NFTs? Go for it. I don't care.

You want to sit in cash during a bull market watching everyone make money but you? Sure. Knock yourself out.

From the Desk of Ian Culley @Ianculley

After Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s remarks this morning, the market is pricing in an 86% chance of a 75-basis-point hike later this month. 

Meanwhile, rates continue to accelerate at the short end of the curve. That’s been the story for months now. 

But will the middle and long end of the curve head higher as well?

According to the two-year US Treasury yield, the answer is a resounding "yes!"

Short-duration rates offer plenty of valuable, leading information regarding US Treasury yields.

We’ve leaned on the five-year yield throughout the current cycle as an early indication of the direction of the 10- and 30-year. It’s proved a beneficial practice.

Today, we’re going to drop it down a notch, extending the same logic to the two-year yield.

Here’s a quad-pane chart of the two-, five-, 10-, and 30-year US Treasury yields:

Starting in the upper-left corner, the two-year is well above its former 2018 highs and hitting levels not seen since November 2007...

This is the video recording of the September 8th, 2022, Weekly Town Hall w/ Willie Delwiche.

09/08/22 2:00 PM ET

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

This All Star Charts +Plus Monthly Playbook breaks down the investment universe into a series of largely binary decisions and tactical calls. Paired with our Weight of the Evidence Dashboard and our Playbook Chartbook, this piece is designed to help active asset allocators follow trends, pursue opportunities, and manage risk.

In Focus for September: That there is little appetite for risk among investors has been evident all year. Despite bounces in March and May and even during the rally from mid-June to mid-August, our longer-term risk indicator has remained in the Risk Off zone. The challenge from an asset allocation perspective is that while Risk Off assets have been generally stronger than Risk On assets, there is not a lot of strength there on an absolute basis. Our Risk Off - Risk On Range-O-Meter captures this. That the components of our US Risk On Index (shown below in green) have weakened and are nearing their 52-week lows probably comes as no surprise. While...

It's been a pretty lousy market out there...

There's been so little to discuss in the way of data points that'd pull us from the doldrums.

Strazza sent a brief note in our Slack chat to ask how many cryptos were below their June-July lows. This is when things were at their worst -- 3AC just got margin-called, and there were mass liquidations.

Upon quantifying this, only 4% of our universe of 316 coins are below their closing June-July lows.

That's 13 coins, not a whole lot.

We've adjusted a position in the Paid-to-Play portfolio today:

The big insider transaction everyone is talking about this morning isn’t on our list, as there hasn’t been a filing yet.

Last night, during the Asana $ASAN earnings call, the company announced that its founder, Dustin Moskovitz, will be purchasing another $350 million worth of stock via a private placement.

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

When investing in the stock market, we always want to approach it as "a market of stocks."

Regardless of the environment, there are always stocks showing leadership and trending higher.

We may have to look harder to identify them depending on current market conditions. But there are always stocks that are going up.

The same can be said for weak stocks. Regardless of the environment, there are always stocks that are going down, too. 

We already have multiple scans focusing on stocks making all-time highs, such as Hall of Famers, Minor Leaguers, and the 2 to 100 Club.

We filter these universes for stocks that are exhibiting the best momentum and relative strength characteristics. 

Clearly, we spend a lot of time identifying and writing about leading stocks every week, via multiple reports.

Now, we're also highlighting lagging stocks on a recurring basis.

Welcome to the Short Report.

We...

Where are we in the cycle?

That's something I like to think about.

The reason is because it helps me allocate my time better. Should I be spending more time looking for stocks to buy, should I be spending more time looking for stocks to sell, or should I be at the beach because the market is a mess?

Being able to answer this question correctly can be a huge advantage.

I think blindly incorporating a specific type of strategy at all times, regardless of the market conditions seems awfully difficult.

If we can first identify what type of market environment we're in, then we can pick and choose which tools and strategies are best fit for that part of the cycle.

Are we in a high volatility environment? Then why would we implement strategies that are best suited for low volatility environments?

Are we in a trending market environment? Then why would we use the tools and strategies that are best for sideways rangebound markets?

I think we first identify where we are in the cycle, and then decide how to approach the market from there.

We do this by weighing all of evidence. And to be clear, I mean all the...

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

Key Takeaway: Despite the stock market’s reluctance toward sustained advances, investors have refused to throw in the towel. The bulls showed up last month, declaring their intent by triggering short-term breadth and momentum thrusts. Yet, as impressive as the display of strength was, they’re still waiting for the market to respond. Or at least the response they were hoping for. We would expect oversold conditions to reverse quickly after strong upside momentum and broadening participation. That hasn’t happened yet and bulls are showing signs of getting discouraged. If the relationship between investors and stocks isn’t going to be a two-way street, the likelihood of a broader and deeper sentiment re-set increases.

Sentiment Report Chart of the Week: Investors Not Giving Up On Stocks

Despite financial market volatility in August and evidence of increased caution showing up in options data and sentiment surveys, investors increased exposure to both stocks and bonds. ETF...

This is the video recording of our September 7, 2022, Inside Scoop Weekly Strategy Session.

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

After reviewing the Cyclical Portfolio, we are making the active decision to sit on our hands for now. In the Tactical Opportunity Portfolio, we've made a couple of tweaks. We are seeing "Higher for longer" resonate with the bond market and are increasing exposure to one of the few areas that is actually still in an uptrend.