From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Our Top 10 Charts Report was just published.

In this weekly note, we highlight 10 of the most important charts or themes we're currently seeing in asset classes around the world.

New Lows Streak is Over

One thing that has been consistent this year is seeing more stocks hit new lows than new highs. We’ve witnessed this kind of bear market behavior every single week of 2022. Up until now, that is. For the first time all year, more stocks made new highs than new lows last week. This is a huge development because if the market truly bottomed and we’re in the early stages of a new uptrend, we’re going to need more new highs than new lows. It’s just math. Following 37 straight weeks of net new lows, seeing this streak come to an end is yet another big piece of evidence in favor of the bull camp.

Key Takeaway:

• Rally strengthens as participation broadens.
• Risk environment is still cautious as downtrends linger.
• Macro situation is a concern but has not been causing stress.

Breadth thrusts are firing, participation is expanding and for the first time this year new high lists are longer than new low lists. From the perspective of market internals, the rally over the past two months could hardly have been stronger.

This strength is showing up in our bull market re-birth checklist. July brought upside volume thrusts and the first breadth thrust (based on the percentage of stocks making new 20-day highs) in over two years. Last week brought to an end the string of 37 consecutive weeks of more new lows than new highs on the NYSE+NASDAQ. The trend in our net new high advance/decline line also turned higher.

Our bull market re-birth checklist has now had 4 out of 5 the criteria met. While this does...

Will the commodity trade come roaring back? If so, we've got a play in a metals fabrication stock that we think we'll outperform to the upside.

This company recently broke out to 6-year highs and has a lot of runway left to reach decade-plus highs.

We've adjusted a position in the Paid-to-Play portfolio today:

Broadly speaking, risk assets have caught a well-received bid over the last few weeks. This recent period has proven to be an incredibly risk-on tape.

When it comes to crypto, the big narrative driving capital markets seems to be the upcoming Ethereum $ETH merge. This update will see the network move away from proof-of-work (PoW) to a proof-of-stake (PoS) framework.

Of course, as technicians, we naturally follow money flow as opposed to getting stuck in the weeds of narratives. It's quite clear to see traders are bidding Ethereum leading into the merge in what looks like a "buy the rumor, sells the news" event.

The most significant insider activity on today’s list comes in a Form 4 filing by QH Hungary Holdings Ltd, which reported purchases worth roughly $9.2 million in Quaker Chemical $KWR.

The firm now owns 4,440,989 shares, representing a roughly 22.50% ownership stake.

This summer is the most ideal time to be buying stocks, according to the 4-year cycle.

Q3 of the Mid-term Election years. That's the sweet spot.

Do we see new all-time highs for the S&P500 before the end of the year?

The seasonal tailwinds certainly support that:

Today's Chart of the Day was a unanimous decision internally.

How can it not be this one???

Every single week in 2022 we've seen more stocks hitting new lows than stocks hitting new highs.

In bull markets we see the exact opposite of that.

Well, this week the bulls finally got it done. For the first time all year we saw more stocks hitting new highs than new lows.

It wasn't by much. But they pulled it off.

This is the weekly post that aggregates all the charts we put together throughout the week and organizes them all into one, easy to flip through deck.

This is the weekly post that aggregates all the charts we put together throughout the week and organizes them all into one, easy to flip through deck.

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

It doesn’t matter where you look: Commodities are digging in, finding support, and reclaiming key levels.

Grains, softs, base metals, and energy have all stopped going down. Even gold is bouncing off critical levels of former support.

But it’s not just the fact the commodity correction is hitting the pause button that’s important.

It’s where it's happening.

Let’s take a look at a few charts.

First we have cotton futures:

Cotton completed a monster base, breaking to fresh 10-year highs last October. A strong advance took hold during the following months.

But it was answered by a near-vertical decline back into its prior range.

After falling more than 45% from its May peak, cotton is reclaiming a key level of former resistance marked by its 2014, 2018, and 2021 highs.

That shelf of former highs kept a lid on cotton prices for almost a decade. And the 2018 highs...

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Our Hall of Famers list is composed of the 150 largest US-based stocks.

These stocks range from the mega-cap growth behemoths like Apple and Microsoft – with market caps in excess of $2T – to some of the new-age large-cap disruptors such as Moderna, Square, and Snap.

It has all the big names and more.

It doesn’t include ADRs or any stock not domiciled in the US. But don’t worry; we developed a separate universe for that which you can check out here.

The Hall of Famers is simple.

We take our list of 150 names and then apply our technical filters so the strongest stocks with the most momentum rise to the top.

Let’s dive right in and check out what these big boys are up to.

Here’s this week’s list:

Click table to enlarge view

• We filtered out any laggards that are down 5% or more relative to the S&P 500 over the trailing month. 
• We sorted the remaining...

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Everything has been working lately, as the weight of the evidence continues to stack up in favor of the bottom being in for the current cycle.

The short-term breadth thrusts in late July were among the first signs of it. This week, we’re seeing new highs spread out to longer time frames, such as our 63-day indicators.

The percentage of stocks above their 200-day moving average has rebounded higher after undercutting the critical 15% level. This has marked significant bottoms in the past.

Participation has spread beyond growth stocks over the near term, as materials and energy are also rallying and reclaiming key levels. We can say the same for crypto.

And, most importantly, we’re finally seeing upside resolutions. Not only that, they’re holding.

Some of our favorite charts right now are short-term reversal patterns. We’re seeing them all over in growth stocks.

Let’s talk about some we’re buying.

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

While many started to pay attention to the potential for equity market weakness well after the S&P 500 peaked back in January, a look beneath the surface showed that trouble had been brewing for a while. The percentage of stocks in the S&P indexes that were 20% or more below their highs stopped retreating in March of 2021 and started to rise over the second half of 2021. That intensified over the first half of 2022 and crescendoed to a peak in mid-June (at which point between 75% and 85% of stocks were in drawdowns of 20% or more). The pattern of higher highs and higher lows in this measure of stock market weakness is now being challenged. Already fewer stocks in the mid-cap S&P 400 are in 20% drawdowns than was the case in early June. Small-caps and large-caps aren’t far behind. Before sustained strength, we usually experience waning weakness. And that is what we are seeing right now.  

We had a resting GTC order filled at our profit target in the Paid-to-Play portfolio today:

This is the video recording of our August 12, 2022, All Star Charts Crypto Weekly Strategy Session.

We've adjusted a position in the Paid-to-Play portfolio today:

The most significant insider transaction on today's list comes from a 13D filing by Jeff Ubben’s Value Act.

The hedge fund revealed an ownership stake of 6.70% in The New York Times Company $NYT.

We debuted a new scan recently which goes by the name- All Star Momentum.

All Star Momentum is a brand new scan that guides us towards the very best stocks in the market. We have incorporated our stock universe of Nifty 500 as the base this time around. Among the 500 stocks that we follow, this scan will pump out names that are most likely to outperform the market.

From the Desk of  Ian Culley @Ianculley

More pieces of the puzzle are falling into place for the bulls.

We’ve been pounding the table about the dollar and rates for months, and now they’re starting to take shape.

On Wednesday, the US Dollar Index $DXY broke to fresh lows, violating a multi-month trend line.

And interest rates… well, they haven’t moved much. They continue to hold their range after peaking in June. 

As expected, stocks surged yesterday in response to a weaker dollar and stable bond market. 

But stocks aren’t the only risk assets on the rise. Investors are moving out on the risk curve and bidding up high-yield bonds, too.

Here’s a dual-pane chart of the Fallen Angel High-Yield Bond ETF $ANGL and the S&P 500 Index $SPX:

ANGL is one of our favorite high-yield bond ETFs because it contains the...