Did you see what just happened last month?

Financials went back and kissed the same prices they hit at their peak just before the Great Financial Crisis.

This is easily one of the most important price levels in stock market history. And I heard no one talking about it.

Meanwhile, the Home Construction Index did the exact same thing. In this case, even more special. The peak in Home Construction was when the fund launched, which is both classic and hilarious.

Here's what these retests look like:

While I prefer to let stocks prove themselves to me before taking a position, sometimes a situation sets up where the stars are aligning for a low risk bet that makes it worth the effort to get ahead of the crowd.

One such situation has developed in a name discussed recently in our Hall of Famers report.

We've adjusted a position in the Paid-to-Play portfolio today:

Bitcoin price action has been a slow grind higher over the last month, while Ethereum and other altcoins have posted notable gains.

This very much remains an environment where crypto capital markets are moving in lockstep with legacy markets.

The relationship between long-duration assets (growth stocks) and the US dollar remains integral to our macro crypto thesis.

We continue to maintain the view that the US dollar is the single biggest driver of risk assets and, by extension, cryptocurrencies.

Further USD weakness would be a tailwind, while a stronger dollar would place pressure on crypto.

CD&R Investment Associates disclosed the purchase of approximately $6 million worth of Beacon Roofing Supply $BECN in a Form 4 on Friday.

The firm now owns 24,348,048 shares, which represents a roughly 35% ownership stake in the mid-cap building products company.

Last week I jumped on to Fox Business to talk markets with Charles.

He asked me about S&Ps, Russell2000 Small-caps, US 10yr Yield and Bitcoin.

It's funny, I don't think I've ever agreed this much with a TV anchor in my life.

His Technical Analysis was spot on.

So the setups are certainly there. But I think the catalysts are where we focus. And I believe that continues to be the Dollar and Rates.

Here's the full clip:

Are you watching?

Look what stocks and Crypto do with just a little tiny bit of Dollar weakness.

In fact, US Dollar Index Futures are only down 3.0% off the highs.

And look how stocks have done since the Dollar stopped going up a couple of weeks ago:

This is the weekly post that aggregates all the charts we put together throughout the week and organizes them all into one, easy to flip through deck.

This is the weekly post that aggregates all the charts we put together throughout the week and organizes them all into one, easy to flip through deck.

One of the processes we absolutely love to follow is the Top/Down Analysis approach. In this process, we identify the larger trend, zoom in, and analyze the characteristics that stand out. We look at the asset classes, identify the strongest one, and then deep dive. Next, we look at sectors and identify the pockets of outperformance. Finally, we look at an actionable trade that suits our risk and reward parameters.

So let's see what we have this time around!

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Our Hall of Famers list is composed of the 150 largest US-based stocks.

These stocks range from the mega-cap growth behemoths like Apple and Microsoft – with market caps in excess of $2T – to some of the new-age large-cap disruptors such as Moderna, Square, and Snap.

It has all the big names and more.

It doesn’t include ADRs or any stock not domiciled in the US. But don’t worry; we developed a separate universe for that which you can check out here.

The Hall of Famers is simple.

We take our list of 150 names and then apply our technical filters so the strongest stocks with the most momentum rise to the top.

Let’s dive right in and check out what these big boys are up to.

Here’s this week’s list:

Click table to enlarge view

We filter out any laggards that are down 5% or more relative to the S&P 500 over the trailing month. 

Then, we sort the remaining names by...

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

The past two years of sideways chop on the gold chart has been a game of perseverance and pain. 

Gold is a honey badger, attacking a beehive face-first, digging for larvae, and somehow persevering through a thousand bee stings.

That can’t be fun, especially as other areas of the market have experienced explosive trends. But it works for the honey badger.

And it's worked for gold.

Now that commodities and stocks have come under increased selling pressure, the data continues to mount in favor of declining gold prices. 

Precious metals are looking weak. Gold stocks are breaking down on absolute and relative bases. And signs of risk appetite are nowhere to be seen.

But gold doesn’t care.

Before we get into the absolute weakness in gold and other precious metals, let’s review the relative weakness in the mining space.

Here’s a dual-pane chart of the Gold Miners ETF $GDX versus the Gold ETF $GLD and...

These are the registration details for our Live Monthly Candlestick Strategy Session for Premium Members of All Star Charts.

This month’s Video Conference Call will be held on Monday August 1st @ 6PM ET. As always, if you cannot make the call live, the video and slides will be archived and published here along with every other live call since 2015.

Here are the details for Monday evening:

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

As this summer’s relief rally gains momentum, the new highs list is gaining and growing along with it.

For long-only universes like The Hot List, this is great news.

Why?

Because we finally have a good amount of bullish chart setups to choose from again. For a few months there, we were struggling to find solid opportunities for putting on long exposure.

We’ve been patiently waiting for evidence that the market is turning. And while we’re not out of the woods yet, conditions have improved significantly since June.

Let’s dive in and talk about some health care stocks that have our attention right now. 

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

We got a breadth thrust this week as the percentage of S&P 500 stocks making new 20-day highs edged above 55% on Thursday. This might not be the most well-known of the various breadth thrusts, but it’s the one I lean on most heavily. It’s part of our bull market re-birth checklist and watched by market pros. It’s not an all clear signal or a guarantee that the market will not go down. The market stumbled after the July 2011 signal and the performance in the wake of the March 2002 signal was ugly. But overall, this tended to point to improving conditions and indicate that the market may more easily move up and to the right. I have reservations right now (we continue to see more new lows than new highs) and I believe much of the rally off the June lows has been built on a premise that will prove false. But the data are what they are. To quote Walter Deemer, “Ours is not to reason why, ours is just to sell and buy.” Breadth thrusts signal...

We've experienced a pretty powerful bear market rally on the heels of yesterday's Federal Reserve interest rates announcement. Whether or not it sticks is anybody's guess. But one name in the financials space has stood out for its relative lack of participation in the recent rally off the bear market lows.

Stocks like these are the ones we want to leverage into bearish portfolio hedges. So let's get right to it.

This is the video recording of our July 29, 2022, All Star Charts Crypto Weekly Strategy Session.

We've adjusted a position in the Paid-to-Play portfolio today:

Insiders are buying up regional banks this week.

Independent Director Robert Stallings reported an additional  purchase of $1.2 million in Texas Capital Bancshares $TCB, as he continues to build his position.

From the desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

It’s the day after the FOMC announcement, and markets are mixed. They’ve already moved past yesterday’s 75-basis-point hike and are now in the process of pricing in all available data, including the prospects of future Fed policy.    

Instead of getting caught up in the recession chatter and what the Fed might do next, let’s focus on one undeniable fact: The 10-year US Treasury yield $TNX is still at a key inflection point.

I know we’ve been obnoxious about the US dollar and rates. They continue to be two of the most important charts out there. That’s the environment we’re in – plain and simple.

And with the 10-year yield stuck just below a critical shelf of former highs, there’s no better time to remind ourselves of some classic intermarket relationships.

Here’s a chart of the US 10-year yield overlaid with the Metals and Mining ETF $XME with the ARK Innovation ETF $ARKK in the lower pane:

...