From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

Key Takeaway: Flow data showing equities attracting 71 cents of every ETF dollar in the first half of 2022 casts some doubt on claims that sentiment is washed out even as bears continue to outnumber bulls. New lows > new highs and excessive pessimism are features of bear markets, while new highs > new lows and building optimism tend to be seen in bull markets. The wall of worry seen in the AAII sentiment data off of the COVID lows is more an exception than it is a rule, especially in the absence of breadth thrusts or other evidence of strong participation. Between the ETF flow data and measures of household asset allocations, the risk is that the investor love affair with equities grows cold and they seek solace elsewhere. Overall the sentiment data now looks more similar to what was seen in Q1 2008 than what was seen at the lows a year later.

Sentiment Report Chart of the Week: Equities Feel The Flow

Discussions of sentiment often focus only on what investors say...

This is the video recording of our July 6, 2022, Inside Scoop Weekly Strategy Session.

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

On both an absolute and a relative basis, healthcare names continue to perform. I guess the need for quality healthcare is a stronger driver of stock prices than interest rates and global macro? At least for now, that appears to be the case.

One name we've been watching, Cigna $CI, is knocking on the door of a major base breakout.

We've adjusted a position in the Paid-to-Play portfolio today:

Today’s Hot List is a short one.

This might just be one of the most important charts in the entire world.

The resolution here is going to tell us a lot about the underlying trends for stocks.

This is the Euro STOXX 600, a broad measure of European equities, that I like to compare to the S&P1500. This is Europe's version:

We debuted a new scan recently- The Outperformers.

The Outperformers is our newest scan that pinpoints the very best stocks in the market. It’s the fastest, easiest way to find quality names that are primed for major moves.

The goal is that as the market rally progresses, the sector rotation within the market will reflect in this scan. So while our Top/Down Analysis helps us with the broader view of the market, this Bottom/Up scan makes sure that we catch the slightest change in sentiment.

We debuted a new scan recently which goes by the name- All Star Momentum.

All Star Momentum is a brand new scan that guides us towards the very best stocks in the market. We have incorporated our stock universe of Nifty 500 as the base this time around. Among the 500 stocks that we follow, this scan will pump out names that are most likely to outperform the market.

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Bullish setups are hard to come by these days.

While this makes things more challenging in terms of finding opportunities, it also makes those opportunities stand out that much more.

If you’re showing relative strength in the current market environment, we’re sitting up and paying attention.

One of these rare leaders popped up in our Inside Scoop scan this week. Let’s talk about it.

This is the video recording of our July 2nd Monthly Charts Live Strategy Session

From the desk of Louis Sykes @haumicharts

We tell it like it is.

Technical analysis in its very nature is simply following reality. We're not tied to position, a narrative, or whatever story journalists are spinning up. We're never dogmatic in our approach and are always open to changing our approach as new data comes in.

We've been discussing a lot internally with all the analysts the lack of actionable crypto trade ideas we've published. Don't get us wrong, we love trades. But equally, we need to be aware and mindful of when the very act of trading itself is detrimental to our portfolios.

There's no such thing as catching every move. I see this a lot in the crypto community, where traders often feel like they need to predict every rally.

There isn't some random giga chad or MM slinging every move. It just doesn't exist. If anything, the blowups we're seeing all across the place among the most sophisticated crypto funds (3AC et al.) are a testament to this.

We had a resting GTC order filled in the Paid-to-Play portfolio today:

Key Takeaway:

• Commodities facing pressure.
• Bonds looking for tailwinds.
• Stocks relying on hope.

The first half of 2022 was one for the record books, but it was more dubious than distinguished. Only two years (2020 & 2009)  in the past quarter century experienced more 1% moves in the first half than did 2022 and only one (2008) finished the year with a higher percentage of 1% moves than we have experienced in the first half of this year. Both stocks and bonds were down in back-to-back quarters for only the third time in the past 45 years. This contributed to the benchmark 60/40 stock/bond portfolio experiencing a first half of the year that was twice as bad as another in the past quarter century. According to data from Ned Davis Research, it was the worst first half for a balanced portfolio since the 1930’s.

There are plenty of observations about how the worst first halves are followed by strength in...

We had a resting GTC order filled in the Paid-to-Play portfolio today:

The next new trade in our Paid-to-Play portfolio is:

Today's most significant insider transaction report is another Form 4 filing by Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway $BRK.A.

Buffet continues to build his position in Occidental Petroleum $OXY, as he disclosed an additional purchase of roughly $582 million.

From the desk of Steve Strazza @sstrazza

This is one of our favorite bottom-up scans: Follow the Flow. In this note, we simply create a universe of stocks that experienced the most unusual options activity — either bullish or bearish, but not both.

We utilize options experts, both internally and through our partnership with The TradeXchange. Then, we dig through the level 2 details and do all the work upfront for our clients.

Our goal is to isolate only those options market splashes that represent levered and high-conviction, directional bets.

We also weed out hedging activity and ensure there are no offsetting trades that either neutralize or cap the risk on these unusual options trades.

What remains is a list of stocks that large financial institutions are putting big money behind.

And they’re doing so for one reason only: because they think the stock is about to move in their...

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Welcome to our latest Minor Leaguers report.

We’ve had some great trades come out of this small-cap-focused column since we launched it back in 2020 and started rotating it with our flagship bottom-up scan, Under the Hood.

For the first year or so, we focused only on Russell 2000 stocks with a market cap between $1 and $2B.

That was fun, but we wanted to branch out a bit and allow some new stocks to find their way onto our list.

We expanded our universe to include some mid-caps.

To make the cut for our Minor Leaguers list, a company must have a market cap between $1 and $4B.

And it doesn’t have to be a Russell component — it can be any US-listed equity. With participation expanding around the globe, we want all those ADRs in our universe.

The same price and liquidity filters are applied. Then, as always, we sort by proximity to...

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Check out this week's Momentum Report, our weekly summation of all the major indexes at a Macro, International, Sector, and Industry Group level.

By analyzing the short-term data in these reports, we get a more tactical view of the current state of markets. This information then helps us put near-term developments into the big picture context and provides insights regarding the structural trends at play.

Let's jump right into it with some of the major takeaways from this week's report:

* ASC Plus Members can access the Momentum Report by clicking the link at the bottom of this post.

Macro Universe:

• Our macro universe struggled this week as 77% of our list closed lower with a median return of -1.60%.
• Lumer $LB was the big winner this week, booking a 7.95% gain.
• The biggest loser was the US 10-Year Yield $TNX, which fell about 24 basis points on the week.
• There was a 2% improvement in the percentage of assets on our list within 5% of their 52-week highs – currently at 4%.
• 9% of our macro list made fresh 4-week...

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Our Top 10 Charts Report was just published.

In this weekly note, we highlight 10 of the most important charts or themes we're currently seeing in asset classes around the world.

Equites Suggest Rates Roll

It’s not just commodities and the bond market that are disagreeing with the action from yields these days. We're not getting confirmation from the stock market either. The Equities For Rising Rates ETF (EQRR) always offers excellent information to either support or contradict what we’re seeing from the bond market. When we overlay EQRR with the US 10-Year Yield (TNX), they look almost identical.

What this chart tells us is that the stocks that tend to do well in a rising rate environment could not hold their former highs and are now stuck below overhead supply. This lack of confirmation supports our outlook for a pause and some corrective action from yields in the near future.