The stock market has breathed a much-needed sigh of relief this week.
Are we out of the woods? I wish I knew.
But in case we're not, I'm hedging a little bit by taking this bounce opportunity to get into a bearish position in an Electric power generation stock that appears to be dead-cat bouncing.
We debuted a new scan recently which goes by the name- All Star Momentum.
All Star Momentum is a brand new scan that guides us towards the very best stocks in the market. We have incorporated our stock universe of Nifty 500 as the base this time around. Among the 500 stocks that we follow, this scan will pump out names that are most likely to outperform the market.
The largest insider buy on today’s list is a Form 4 filing by Turtle Creek Asset Management, which revealed a 496,000-share purchase of JELD-WEN Holding $JELD.
In his latest Form 4, the chairman and CEO of Enviva $EVA revealed a purchase of approximately $1 million in the lumber and wood company.
From the desk of Steven Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @Ianculley
Bonds are off to their worst start in the past 40 years, possibly ever!
It’s not even close.
As we near the end of Q2, the US Treasury Bond ETF $TLT is down almost 22% year to date. And that’s after its recent bounce higher.
There's been nowhere to hide, as these traditional safe-haven assets have been an absolute dumpster fire along with stocks.
But we’re starting to see some of those flames extinguished.
Some of the worst-performing stocks tipped the bond market’s hand ahead of the recent lows. That’s right: Those Big Tech names and Chinese internet stocks stopped going down months ago and now bonds are following higher.
Believe it or not, bonds and high-duration equities have a lot in common. The Growth $IWF versus Value $IWD ratio really tells the story.
Let’s take a look.
Here’s an overlay chart of the TLT and the IWF/IWD ratio:
While bonds have sold off throughout the year, growth stocks have suffered a similar fate...
There's no denying the fact that crypto and macro have become intertwined in recent times.
We'd even go far as to say that Bitcoin is a macro asset. I think over time, as its market capitalization grows, the correlation to traditional assets will remain concentrated, as Bitcoin will eventually go on to exhibit gold-like returns.
Some will ask what it'll take for Bitcoin to decouple from equities. This is often a great and insightful discussion. But, like most elements relating to financial markets, we need to see them for how they really are, not how we want to see them.
When it comes to the macro landscape, it's clearly been difficult to ignore what's taking place in yields. The carnage in the bond market is, by historical measures, extreme.
The first lesson you learn in any university finance program is that higher yields negatively impact long-duration assets -- you're seeing this take place right here and now.
The Nasdaq is trading tick-for-tick with US Treasuries over recent weeks:
Monday was an unexpected break. Markets were closed for Juneteenth Day, which is now a Federal holiday. I didn't realize that would be the case until the middle of last week. It has made for a short week in the market after a long weekend for doing whatever it is you do to get refreshed after staring at computer screens all day. For me, it meant more time in the garden.
The garden has provided its own share of unexpected developments recently, and I’m not just talking about volunteer cantaloupes (though there are several of them around).
In the pond, a spike in ammonia levels necessitated an overdue and unexpectedly extensive cleaning. Not only is it now a healthier environment in which the fish can thrive, but in the process we discovered a baby fish that we hadn't known about.
Monday night we held our June Monthly Conference Call, which Premium Members can access and rewatch here.
In this post, we’ll do our best to summarize it by highlighting five of the most important charts and/or themes we covered, along with commentary on each.
As many of you know, something we've been working on internally is using various bottom-up tools and scans to complement our top-down approach. It's really been working for us!
One way we're doing this is by identifying the strongest growth stocks as they climb the market-cap ladder from small- to mid- to large- and, ultimately, to mega-cap status (over $200B).
Once they graduate from small-cap to mid-cap status (over $2B), they come on our radar. Likewise, when they surpass the roughly $30B mark, they roll off our list.
But the scan doesn't just end there.
We only want to look at the strongest growth industries in the market, as that is typically where these potential 50-baggers come from.
Some of the best performers in recent decades – stocks like Priceline, Amazon, Netflix, Salesforce, and myriad others – would have been on this list at some point during...
It's not just retail. Some of the most sophisticated crypto funds on the planet are blowing up. Lives are getting destroyed.
But here's a quick reminder: The best trades come when others are forced to exit and are at their lowest points.
Is it a nice way to make a living?
No. But you have to deal with it. Otherwise, you end up being on the wrong side.
The ETF providers in their infinite wisdom seem to be feeding on this sentiment, with the first short Bitcoin ETF being launched in the US this week. This feels awfully reminiscent of October, when the first Bitcoin futures ETF was launched.
Key Takeaway: More and more distribution patterns are resolving lower as bearish price action runs rampant across all major assets classes. Even the leadership groups such as commodities experience selling pressure as pessimism grows. Yet, while investors have expressed concern, they have not done much about it. Equity funds continue to attract inflows ($200+ billion YTD, according to DB) and households are hardly flush with liquidity. Perhaps it will take a second quarter in a row of being told not to look at their retirement account statements to prompt some investor action.
Sentiment Report Chart of the Week: Copper Looks Tarnished
Some call it Dr. Copper - the commodity with a PhD in economics. For me, it’s more like Mr. Copper, CMT - Emerging Market technical analyst. Either way, market participants express how they are feeling through the price of copper. Copper was an early leader off of the COVID lows but has moved sideways since early 2021. Now, our trend...
There is probably a certain segment of the investing population that would look askance at me if I mentioned we're seeing "strength in China." They wouldn't believe that is possible. According to the news media they consume, China is "a mess." Perhaps that is true? But we only follow price here at our shop, and price is beginning to tell a different story.
Today's trade idea comes from TWO seemingly unlikely places: China and Internet! (what??????)
And when you see this chart of the Chinese Internet ETF $KWEB, you'll see why: