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The Hall of Famers (06-17-2022)

June 17, 2022

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Our Hall of Famers list is composed of the 150 largest US-based stocks.

These stocks range from the mega-cap growth behemoths like Apple and Microsoft – with market caps in excess of $2T – to some of the new-age large-cap disruptors such as Moderna, Square, and Snap.

It has all the big names and more.

It doesn’t include ADRs or any stock not domiciled in the US. But don’t worry; we developed a separate universe for that which you can check out here.

The Hall of Famers is simple.

We take our list of 150 names and then apply our technical filters so the strongest stocks with the most momentum rise to the top.

Let’s dive right in and check out what these big boys are up to.

Here’s this week’s list:

*Click table to enlarge view

And here’s how we arrived at it:

  • Filter out any stocks that are below their May 10th 2021 high...

[PLUS] Weekly Observations & One Chart for the Weekend

June 17, 2022

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

Not sure where I first heard it, but I’ve always loved this saying: “Bull markets take you to levels you never thought you would see. Bear markets take you to levels you never thought you would see again.” Since the S&P 500 is now down more than 20% from its January peak, we are able to discuss bear market tendencies without getting the “yeah buts” from polite society. The S&P 500 is at levels not seen since late-2020, while the small-cap Russell 2000 is below its pre-COVID high back to where it was in early-2018. The Value Line Geometric index is also below its pre-COVID high and is at a level it first reached in early 2015. That is seven years of no progress for an index that serves as a proxy for the median stock.    

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Follow the Curve, Not the Noise

June 17, 2022

From the desk of Steven Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @Ianculley  

Now that inflation is no longer transitory and we’ve officially entered bear market territory, "recession" is the next buzzword on deck.

And don’t worry: Plenty of banter surrounding the yield curve will take center stage during all this recession talk. 

Somehow, an inverted yield curve has become synonymous with recession even though the historical record supporting this narrative leaves room for plenty of interpretation. 

The purpose of this post is not to present an argument on whether we’re already in a recession or if one is imminent. We’ll leave that up to the talking heads and economists.

Instead, we'll simply share where the yield curve is today and assess the likelihood of potential inversion.

Let’s take a look…

Here’s a triple-pane chart of the US 30-year, 10-year, and 5-year yields:

...

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[Options Premium] It Comes For Them All!

June 17, 2022

Taking losses is never fun. But it's the most important thing we do.

I wish it were different. I wish smart risk management was an exciting endeavor that made us happy. The kind of thing that makes us want to high-five our friends and adoring fans.

Unfortunately, it's more like that menial task that you have to do over and over again, hating every minute of it, but knowing it just has to be done (like the doing the dishes or laundry).

 

 

Fintech CEOs Report Inside Purchases

June 17, 2022

William Griffith, director of Procore Technologies $PCOR, reported an additional purchase of roughly $7 million, as he continues to build his position in the stock.

Under Iconiq Strategic Partners II, he now owns about 44 million shares for a total ownership interest of 33%.

Global Market Losing its Brea(d)th

June 17, 2022

Time and again, we've been referring to how Nifty50 has been displaying more resilience compared to its international counterparts. While the Indian markets have come under heavy pressure this week, global markets have been reeling under that pressure for longer.

So today, we're here to provide a perspective of where the global indices are, just to get an idea of the kind of market environment we're in.

All Star Charts Crypto

Our List of Crypto ETFs

June 16, 2022

It can be hard for traditional investors to gain appropriate exposure to crypto. There are many hurdles to jump and hoops to clear.

The Bitcoin futures ETF, launched late last year, is a step in the right direction. But isn't a perfect solution. Over time, futures ETFs are incredibly expensive, as the fund provider has to constantly roll over the contracts.

In an ideal world, US investors would have a Bitcoin spot ETF, which, of course, does not yet exist.

Another possibility is to skip the Bitcoin/cryptocurrency exposure and invest in crypto-related companies. That's certainly a viable solution.

From our work, we've found MicroStrategy $MSTR is, by far, the most fitting vehicle for those looking to gain exposure to Bitcoin via a traditional stock.

Other stocks, like mining and banking names, have their own idiosyncratic risks and drivers beyond crypto trends, making them less-than-ideal solutions for those seeking exposure solely to cryptocurrencies.

But beyond this is yet another solution.

How about crypto equity ETFs?

US investors have a few choices at their disposal...

Breadth Thrusts & Bread Crusts: Rookie Mistakes

June 16, 2022

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

Last week, it was cool and rainy in Milwaukee. This week, it's been sunny and sweltering (with a few thunderstorms thrown in as well). Summer has definitely arrived as we approach the solstice and max daylight in the Northern Hemisphere.

With the heat we’ve had this week (several days in the 90s pushed our greenhouse temperatures to at least 120, which is as high as our thermometer measures), I've been sure to water the garden early and often.

Below Overhead Supply

June 16, 2022

We give them fancy names like Bear Markets or Downtrends.

But all it really means is that the price of an asset is below overhead supply.

As investors, it's important to know that there are sellers at higher prices waiting to sell to you if/when given the opportunity.

While there are an infinite number of examples in the current market environment, the S&P500 offers a clean look at exactly this:

The Outperformers

June 16, 2022

We debuted a new scan recently- The Outperformers.

The Outperformers is our newest scan that pinpoints the very best stocks in the market. It’s the fastest, easiest way to find quality names that are primed for major moves.

The goal is that as the market rally progresses, the sector rotation within the market will reflect in this scan. So while our Top/Down Analysis helps us with the broader view of the market, this Bottom/Up scan makes sure that we catch the slightest change in sentiment.

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The Short Report (06-15-2022)

June 16, 2022

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

When investing in the stock market, we always want to approach it as a market of stocks.

Regardless of the environment, there are always stocks showing leadership and trending higher.

We may have to look harder to identify them depending on current market conditions… but there are always stocks that are going up.

The same can be said for weak stocks. Regardless of the environment, there are always stocks that are going down, too. 

We already have multiple scans focusing on stocks making all-time highs, such as Hall of Famers, Minor Leaguers, and the 2 to 100 Club. We filter these universes for stocks that are exhibiting the best momentum and relative strength characteristics. 

Clearly, we spend a lot of time identifying and writing about leading stocks every week, via multiple reports. Now, we're also highlighting lagging stocks on a recurring basis.

Welcome to the Short Report.

We'll publish this...

[PLUS] Weekly Sentiment Report

June 15, 2022

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

Key Takeaway: Lower prices have a way of souring investor moods. It’s a relationship that thrives on the feedback loop it creates. Increased selling pressure begets pessimism that fuels continued selling pressure. With the recent relief rally behind us, short-lived optimism has dissipated and bearish sentiment is on the rise  (II bull-bear spread challenges its lowest level since the GFC and Consensus bulls fall to their lowest reading since the Covid crash). It’s hard to claim sentiment is washed out as long as pessimism is still expanding. And based on the disparity between investor moods and positioning, there’s still plenty of gas in the tank for the bears.

Sentiment Report Chart of the Week: Household Liquidity Near Historic Lows

The Fed’s latest report on the Financial Accounts of the US (otherwise known as the Z.1) shows that household liquid assets increased by slightly more than 2% in the first quarter. Compared to total financial assets (which were down nearly 2% in the quarter), household liquidity improved slightly. Household non-equity liquid assets rose from 17.9% of...