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Those bear flags we discussed last week have since resolved higher.

After a little pop on Friday, today marks a critical follow-through day for the broader market.

But we already talked about how an oversold bounce was basically a foregone conclusion. We literally knew it was coming. The fact that we finally got it is not a bullish data point.

The next step now is to measure and judge the quality of this rally. There could be some bullish evidence there.

I already outlined some of the most important levels I’m paying attention to.

It’s all about VWAPs for the major averages. The large-cap indexes have the August VWAPs, and the SMIDs have the Q4 2023 VWAPs. They’re all right there.

Here’s the S&P 500 drawn up to show the confluence of resistance around this level.

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The current state of the market is indecision.

The major indexes popped to start the week, then they gave it back.

We had a little Powell pump mid-week, and then they gave that back.

Trump’s promise to play nice on tariffs Friday sparked another little rally, and markets closed strong, albeit well off the highs from Wednesday.

This indecision is illustrated by dojis on the weekly charts of the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500.

And frankly, I’m undecided about just how much I want to dip my toes into US stocks right now.

As you know, I think the bulls have a lot of work to do. And with each passing day, I’m just not seeing it.

But you know where I continue to see...

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I’ve been tough on US equities lately. But it’s really nothing new.

Since last summer, I’ve been writing and talking about taking profits in the US - particularly in US growth - and redeploying that capital overseas.

But the truth is I’m rooting for US stocks. I always am.

So, let’s talk about what I need to see to get excited about them again.

In a few notes last week, I stressed the importance of registering two consecutive up-days at the index level. We’re not going to establish a tradable low without some bullish follow-through.

My attitude has been, “talk to me once we get back-to-back green candles.”

And while I’m really not impressed by the action at all, we did achieve this simple milestone earlier in the week. Congrats to stocks!

The bottom line is this is still a “show-me market.” Let’s discuss what bulls need to see next.

It’s all about growth stocks when...

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Today was all about the Fed. 

As usual, I was laser-focused on the market reactions.

Rates stayed put while the path forward was updated to reflect one fewer cut. 

The stock market pumped a bit while Powell was speaking, and dollars and rates ticked down. 

All in all, it was a mundane FOMC reaction. No fireworks. We discussed it on a live stream on Stock Market TV earlier.

But, one group stood out most today. And it’s extra interesting because it’s the same group that has been on top of the leaderboard all year.

I’ve made plenty of mentions to our Bear Market Checklist in recent weeks. 

It’s something we’re always keeping track of, but matters more in some times, and less in others. 

When we’re in rally mode, it barely crosses my mind. But when volatility strikes, and markets are selling off, it’s the most valuable thing I have. 

Let’s break down exactly what it is and how we use it to guide our analysis at All Star Charts. 

As we track the progress of a bull market, we have major indexes and assets that we want to see achieve certain milestones. This is also true for risk appetite ratios, credit spreads, and breadth indicators. 

So, we simply make a list of these charts and key levels along the way. 

When corrective waves occur, we look for these levels - which in many cases, represent a big line in the sand for these trends, to remain intact.  

We keep tabs of what holds and what doesn’t, and we weigh the evidence accordingly. 

When too many of these zones are violated, it can spell the end of the bull...

Sellers have dominated the tape for the past several weeks.

Any bid for stocks since we rolled over in February has been weak and short-lived.

At the same time, we are more than due for a serious bounce.

Some sentiment metrics are at wash-out levels. 

Put volume is at record highs.

US stock indexes are deeply oversold. 

In the case of Nasdaq 100 futures, this is worse than the pandemic lows from 2020. 

But oversold can always get more oversold.

And when it comes to sentiment data, there is simply no signal without confirmation from price.

So, I just gotta see it at this point. 

A rebound rally is surely coming, but how much selling will happen first? And how good will it be?

There definitely won’t be a meaningful bounce until we string together some consecutive up days. We haven’t seen back-to-back green candles in the S&P since its peak in February. 

Literally, zero bullish follow-through in almost a month. That needs to change for markets to make a...

What does “the best week ever” mean to you?

For me, it means one thing. 

Momentum thrust.

Momentum thrusts come in two forms… initiation and exhaustion. 

The former signals the beginning of a new trend, and the latter marks the end of an existing one.

For this reason, it’s very important to identify what kind of thrust we’re dealing with. You don’t want to get that part wrong. Luckily, we have tools for this, and it’s not hard.

Anyway, I’m talking about international equities. I think the backdrop is set up perfectly for a big seed change in favor of ex-US stocks. 

We talked about it on the blog a few weeks ago, and it’s happening in a big way as we speak. 

Today, we made a checklist of the most important charts in the market. 

We came up with about 20 key levels that, if broken, would suggest the end of the bull market.

Our list covers things from the major averages to crypto, and even some commodities and relative ratios. 

There are so many big levels being tested right now. In many cases, they are the prior-cycle highs, which means violations will result in some nasty failed breakouts.

We’re going to track them all closely and weigh the evidence. As more and more of these levels give way, we will turn increasingly bearish.

But, for me, one chart matters so much more than the rest over the short-term. Actually let’s just call it three, since it is the same situation for all of them.

Here’s a look at the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, and Dow Industrial Average all digging in at their VWAPs from the August lows. These are the most important stock market indexes in the world.

They are all testing crucial support and rebounding in synchrony.

We’ve seen this story before. This won’t be...

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It really looks like game over for crypto. Hear me out. 

Last week, I wrote a post about how I’m turning bearish. I’m out and even a little short. It’s been going well.

Then last night, Trump tweets about the crypto reserve and sets the whole space on fire.

Cardano is rallying 60%, and I’m sitting in my office preparing a list of things I need to see to turn bullish again. 

But by the time traditional markets opened today, it was clear this move was a head-fake. It was more of the same. 

Despite the bullish headlines, all the Sunday fireworks would be erased.

We’ve already discussed the sentiment of the asset class and how cryptos have reacted to news lately. It’s a big part of my bearish thesis. But, this is a new low.

Think about it. 

Crypto was public enemy number one just last year.

Now, we don’t just have a friendly and favorable regulatory environment...

It is always good to play a little devil’s advocate.

One of the things JC has got me accustomed to doing over the years is thinking like a bear… even when I’m not bearish.

“Make your best bear case,” he’d say. 

“What are the worst charts right now?”

It’s something we do just as a thought exercise. Even in the best of bull markets, this is a valuable technique.

Anyway, I thought of it today because I’m finding it uncomfortably easy to paint a negative outlook on stocks lately. 

And I’m not alone. Market sentiment is in the dumps as the bearish evidence keeps piling in.

So, I went to the analyst team and asked them for their most bearish charts this morning.

Let’s look at some and talk about what they mean.

First up, this one is from the Fons:

He talked about this failed break in the discretionary vs staples ratio in his note the other day.

Nvidia just reported its third consecutive earnings report without a significant market reaction.

The stock didn’t do much when they reported back in August and November of last year. And it’s not doing much again today, trading down by less than 1% after-hours.

As for the technical outlook, nothing changes. Nvidia is still stuck in the same range it has been trading in since last summer.

JC and the guys did a live event to discuss the earnings numbers and the stock’s reaction after the bell today. You can rewatch it here.

We only hold these events when there is something big to discuss, and the truth about NVDA is that it is far and away the most important stock for the overall market.

And it’s less about anything specific to do with AI or Nvidia’s business, and more to do with the stock's massive weighting in the major averages and indexes.

Semiconductors are the most critically-important industry group in the market. If we lose the semis, and we lose NVDA...

I’ve been thinking a lot about if this could be the end…

On the Morning Show today we talked about whether the bull market for stocks could continue if we lost Bitcoin.

The answer is it definitely could. But, wouldn’t it be strange? 

Crypto and stocks have danced together for a long time.

However, I think it’s less about crypto and more about the overall risk appetite of the market. 

Bitcoin is just one part of it. When I think about risk on corners of the market and the kind of things that should be working during a healthy bull cycle I’m thinking of homebuilders, semiconductors, and banks… to name a few groups. 

But I’m also looking into the relationships between groups. In particular, I’m analyzing the performance of offensive stocks versus defensive stocks. The best ratio for this has always been discretionary vs staples.

XLY/XLP ranks second to none when it comes to the assessment of risk appetite.