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International Hall of Famers (12-22-2023)

December 22, 2023

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Our International Hall of Famers list is composed of the 100 largest US-listed international stocks, or ADRs.

We've also sprinkled in some of the largest ADRs from countries that did not make the market cap cut. 

These stocks range from some well-known mega-cap multinationals such as Toyota Motor and Royal Dutch Shell to some large-cap global disruptors such as Sea Ltd and Shopify.

It's got all the big names and more–but only those that are based outside the US. You can find all the largest US stocks on our original Hall of Famers list.

The beauty of these scans is really in their simplicity.

We take the largest names each week and then apply technical filters in a way that the strongest stocks with the most momentum rise to the top.

Based on the market environment, we can also flip the scan on its head and filter for weakness.

Let's dive in and take a look at some of the most important stocks from around the world.

Here's this week's list:

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Conserve Your Energy Trade

December 22, 2023

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Metals are dominating the commodity space.

The rotation between energy and base & industrial metals colors the commodity markets as we near 2024.

Crude oil has slipped through buyers' hands since interest rates peaked in October. That much is obvious… 

But don’t short crude oil and its distillates just because copper and gold are catching a bid…

Check out the commodity subgroup performance since the US 10-year yield $TNX peaked in the fall:

Energy has clearly cooled, while precious and base metals have led the pack.

This makes sense as rates fall. But markets don’t move in a straight line.

What's Driving Stock Prices

December 22, 2023

The bull market continues as stocks keep making making new highs.

This is what happens in bull markets, stocks regularly go up.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average is making new all-time highs every day. The S&P500 and Nasdaq are right there too.

And the list of stocks on the NYSE hitting new highs is the longest its been in over 30 months.

But what's driving these stock prices?

It's not earnings. It's not the Fed. It's not the biden.

It's the Dollar. It was always the Dollar.

When the Dollar is weak, stocks go up. It's that simple. And when the Dollar is strong, stocks have a hard time making any progress:

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Junior Hall of Famers (12-21-2023)

December 21, 2023

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

We love our bottoms-up scans here at All Star Charts. We tend to get really creative when making new universes as we want to be sure they will deliver us the best opportunities the market has to offer.

However, when it comes to our latest project, it couldn't be any simpler!

With the goal of finding more bullish setups, we have decided to expand one of our favorite scans and broaden our regular coverage of the largest US stocks.

Welcome to The Junior Hall of Famers.

This scan is composed of the next 150 largest stocks by market cap, those that come after the top 150 and are thus covered by the Hall of Famers universe. Many of these names will someday graduate and join our original Hall Of Famers list. The idea here is to catch these big trends as early on as possible.

There is no need to overcomplicate things. Market cap is a quality filter at the end of the day. It only grows if price is rising. That's good enough for us.

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Bonds Rock as Rates Roll

December 21, 2023

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Last month’s bond rally has legs.

Long-duration bonds have gone from printing multi-month highs to reclaiming their March pivot lows in just a few weeks.

So, let’s revisit our recent swing trades as they continue to run...

Thirty-year T-bond futures sliced through our initial target of 122:

Luckily, a completed bull flag provides a precise level to define our risk.

We can take another long position in T-bond futures, targeting 134, but only if it holds above 124’09.

Here's a look through the equities market…

The long-duration bond ETF $TLT is on the verge of reclaiming a critical shelf of former lows:

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2 to 100 Club (12-20-2023)

December 21, 2023

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Welcome to The 2 to 100 Club.

As many of you know, something we've been working on internally is using various bottom-up tools and scans to complement our top-down approach.

It's really been working for us!

One way we're doing this is by identifying the strongest growth stocks as they climb the market-cap ladder from small- to mid- to large- and, ultimately, to mega-cap status (over $200B).

Once they graduate from small-cap to mid-cap status (over $2B), they come on our radar. Likewise, when they surpass the roughly $30B mark, they roll off our list.

But the scan doesn't just end there.

We only want to look at the strongest growth industries in the market, as that is typically where these potential 50-baggers come from.

[Options] Wishing Wells

December 20, 2023

It was remarked during our Analyst meeting this morning that "bullish Wells Fargo" is a phrase that hasn't been uttered within our digital walls in a long, long time.

But we're looking to get more exposure to the banking sector, and $WFC is consolidating nicely after a fresh breakout last week. With all-time highs within bull market distance, we feel like we can get aggressive with this name for a run.

Implied volatility in $WFC call options is pretty tame here, so that affords us the luxury of going out six months to play the June options which will give us plenty of time to see if $WFC has the stuff.

Here's a chart of $WFC to set the stage:

Perfectly Normal Market Behavior

December 20, 2023

The old saying from our friend Jeff Hirsch goes, "Buy in October and Get yourself Sober".

Did you listen?

And it's not so much about literally buying blindly in October, and more about the fact that stocks tend to end their seasonal corrections around that time, before going on to rally into the end of the year.

And that's exactly what we've seen.

Here is the 4-year seasonal cycle, which of course, suggested strength in equities since mid-term elections last year. And we certainly saw it.

Then the Q3 correction came and went, again all perfectly normal.

And finally that year end strength, which of course we're seeing:

Swinging for the Fences in MARA

December 19, 2023

It's stupidly easy to get swept away in narratives.

From the constant buzz about ETFs to the rise of random meme coins and the infamous halvening, it's hard to escape the storytelling.

It's amusing how people confidently share fundamental narratives during bullish markets, only to resort to drawing lines when sellers enter the scene.

Understanding why a market is trending is normal, but is it really helpful?

Not so much.

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Follow the Flow (12-18-2023)

December 19, 2023

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @sstrazza and Alfonso Depablos @Alfcharts

This is one of our favorite bottom-up scans: Follow the Flow.

In this note, we simply create a universe of stocks that experienced the most unusual options activity — either bullish or bearish, but not both.

We utilize options experts, both internally and through our partnership with The TradeXchange. Then, we dig through the level 2 details and do all the work upfront for our clients.

Our goal is to isolate only those options market splashes that represent levered and high-conviction, directional bets.

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Buy the Yen

December 19, 2023

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

If it wasn't at the very top of the list, the Japanese yen was certainly among the best shorts of 2022.

But the times they are a-changin’.

King Dollar has ducked down a dark alley.

And it doesn't take a weatherman to tell us to buy the yen.

Here are Japanese yen futures carving out a year-long base following fresh 30-year lows:

I like buying strength on a breakout of this bottoming formation. But the yen has quite a way to travel before completing this possible double bottom. 

I don’t want to miss those potential gains, so let’s get tactical by taking a closer look…