We've seen these cycles play out over and over again throughout many decades.
But how do we profit from it all?
Well, for me, I like to use seasonal tendencies to help put the current market environment into context.
It's not about today and tomorrow, and it's not about next year. Where are we right now?
Our Cycle Composite does a good job of helping us put together a road map for this market's cycle.
On the left side of this chart we have the 2021 seasonal trends and on the right we have the 2022 trends.
Last year's composite includes every year since 1950, every post election year since 1950 and every year ending in 1, to include the decennial cycle. Look how closely last year's actual results mirrored the composite:
The largest insider transaction on today's list is a Form 4 filing by the CEO of Ivanhoe Electric Inc $IE, who reported a purchase worth roughly $3.3 million.
The only 13G on our list today was filed by Boxer Capital, LLC. The investment firm revealed an initial 5.70% ownership stake in SpringWorks Therapeutics $SWTX.
This is one of our favorite bottom-up scans: Follow the Flow.
In this note, we simply create a universe of stocks that experienced the most unusual options activity — either bullish or bearish, but not both.
We utilize options experts, both internally and through our partnership with The TradeXchange. Then, we dig through the level 2 details and do all the work upfront for our clients.
Our goal is to isolate only those options market splashes that represent levered and high-conviction, directional bets.
We also weed out hedging activity and ensure there are no offsetting trades that either neutralize or cap the risk on these unusual options trades.
Welcome back to our latest Under The Hood columne, where we'll cover all the action for the week ended September 16, 2022. This report is published bi-weekly and rotated with our Minor Leaguers column.
What we do here is analyze the most popular stocks during the week and find opportunities to either join in and ride these momentum names higher, or fade the crowd and bet against them.
We use a variety of sources to generate the list of most popular names.
There are so many new data sources available that all we need to do is organize and curate them in a way that shows us exactly what we want: a list of stocks that are seeing an unusual increase in investor interest.
More Charts than Football? Or the other way around?
I definitely got a healthy dose of both.
And this one for me definitely stands out.
The way I learned it from Ralph Acampora many years ago was, "DON'T FIGHT PAPA DOW"
So here's the Papa Dow he was referring to. I included the key levels we've been focused on since the 2018 correction. They've really helped and I think they continue to.
But for today, let's focus on the fact that prices are both below overhead supply and above support from the summer lows.
From any sort of intermediate-term perspective, this is what we call "No Man's Land":
The largest insider transaction on today’s list is a Form 4 filing by two members of the Starbucks $SBUX board of directors, chair Mellody Hobson and member Richard Allison.
They reported purchases of SBUX worth a combined $5.9 million.
Our International Hall of Famers list is composed of the 100 largest US-listed international stocks, or ADRs. We’ve also sprinkled in some of the largest ADRs from countries that did not make the market cap cut.
These stocks range from some well-known mega-cap multinationals such as Toyota Motor and Royal Dutch Shell to some large-cap global disruptors such as Sea Ltd and Shopify.
It’s got all the big names and more--but only those that are based outside the US. You can find all the largest US stocks on our original Hall of Famers list.
The beauty of these scans is really in their simplicity.
We take the largest names each week and then apply technical filters in a way that the strongest stocks with the most momentum rise to the top.
Based on the market environment, we can also flip the scan on its head and filter for weakness.
Let’s dive in and take a look at some of the most important stocks from around the world.