As we look for signs of a tradeable low in Equities, we're not only looking at breadth and the stock market's leaders, we're also looking to the Commodity market for a signal of what's to come.
Let's get into why Copper needs to be on your radar.
As we look for signs of a tradeable low in Equities, we're not only looking at breadth and the stock market's leaders, we're also looking to the Commodity market for a signal of what's to come.
Let's get into why Copper needs to be on your radar.
Do you see how stocks are making new lows? That's a characteristic of downtrends, not uptrends. We first want to identify what type of market environment we're in, and then decide which tools we're going to use to help us profit and manage risk.
Something interesting about the current market is that a lot of stocks are making new lows. Most stocks are. But there are a select few that decided they were going to make new highs instead. We call that Relative Strength. You sometimes hear people say how they're "Bucking the trend". This is that.
Our upside target in Zoom Video $ZM was hit today. That was a quick 40% gain. One for the good guys!
But which one is next? I think it's Docusign $DOCU. The stock is ripping to all-time highs relative to S&Ps and prices have been consolidating nicely. I think the next move is higher.
Last week we started to see a few momentum and breadth divergences form in Indian stocks, however, they've not yet been confirmed by price.
In this post, we're going to outline what price level in the Nifty 500 would confirm them, what confirmation would mean for our intermediate-term outlook, and how we're managing risk in both scenarios.
Have you noticed how stocks keep making lower lows and lower highs? We call those downtrends.
There's an important reason why I bring this up. There is a much higher likelihood for markets to continue in the direction they're heading in, than for them to just reverse course and start to move in the opposite direction. This is true for both uptrends and downtrends.
We live in an interesting world of double standards. When stocks are going up and "irresponsible" shorts are getting squeezed, no one feels bad for them. In fact, short sellers get ridiculed for "being so stupid" (see: $TSLA last year). But when longs are getting killed for being irresponsible, we're supposed to feel bad for them right? That's how this works?
I know there are certain perceptions about the intentions of shorts betting on a company failing vs shareholders betting on a company's growth. Fine. But seriously, is there a difference at the end of the day. It's really just math for most of us. I think we really need to think about these things. I don't have the answers, but I certainly question the hypocrisy.
There has been a lot of risk in the stock market over the past 2 months and that still has not changed. Things are getting worse, not better. I tried to emphasize in this week's Live Call that we have NOT seen any evidence to suggest that the worst of the selling is behind us.
We've been inundated with emails from Financial Advisors and traders all over the world. From New York to London, South Africa, Malaysia, Laguna Beach they keep coming in. We work really hard and it is so nice to see how much we've been able to help people, both pros and every day hard working individuals. Thank you from all of us at Allstarcharts! We don't take these notes for granted even for a second.
We know times are tough for some people right now. I have friends and family that lost their jobs today. I'm seeing it outside of markets.
Just as we focus on the strongest markets and stocks to find opportunities during equity bull markets, we look to identify the weakest areas during bear markets. We just want to be in the strongest trends, regardless of their direction.
A few weeks ago we ran some statistics to highlight US stocks that were bucking the trend during the selloff, as those would be the areas to focus on if/when equities eventually regained their footing. While many names have fared well, we were a bit early as the market soon broke below our risk management levels, putting us in a position where we no longer want to be long stocks.
Warning signals were piling up throughout 2020, but weak breadth has been an underlying issue for Indian stocks since they made new highs in August 2016.
While we wait for breadth and momentum divergences to form and suggest getting aggressive on the long side, we're going to look back at how the average Nifty 500 stock has performed over the last 3.5 years and why this data is relevant to today's market.
Every month I host a Conference Call for members of All Star Charts Pro. From the feedback we get from our readers all over the world, this one feature of our Membership is a fan favorite.
A lot has happened in the past month. You hear things about interest rates getting slashed to zero, viruses impacting stocks all over the world and many things that none of us could have predicted a month ago. However, Technical Analysis gave us the ability to get out of the way and avoid this entire mess. Not only did we want to buy bonds, but we simultaneously wanted to sell stocks!
Today I want to share with you the video of last month's Live Conference Call. I've unlocked it so anyone can watch it, not just Premium Members. I've gotten a lot of requests to do this, even from paid subscribers, because opening it up serves as a great educational resource for the future. We can all learn from this, myself included.