Frank Cappelleri is one of my favorite guys to listen to. He brings a unique perspective because of a lot of his experience on Wall Street. Early in his career he spent time working at Smith Barney with legends Alan Shaw and Louise Yamada. He then experienced his first bear market after March 2000 working with former Lehman trader John Schlitz. Frank has been at Instinet, which is owned by Nomura, for a long time and is constantly in touch with some of the smartest guys in the business. I think he's as good a technician as anyone and in this episode he shows us just that. We discuss the market implications of a rising US Dollar and why he no longer has a target above 3050 for the S&P500. I was really looking forward to this conversation and we're lucky we get to pick his brain for a bit. I hope you enjoy this one!
For our subscribers I've discussed what we need to be seeing in terms of market breadth before stepping in and trading stocks in India on the long side (here, here, here, and here) and today's action suggests we may be on our way to getting that opportunity in the next week or two.
Marijuana stocks have never been that HIGH on our list of areas to look at given their smaller market-cap, average trading volume, and short price history often inhibits larger players from participating in them, however, the strong performance as of late has drum up interest in the space and increased the number of stocks that meet our criteria to analyze them. This post will be a quick update on what we're seeing from a price perspective.
This past weekend we wrote updates for our US and India subscribers, discussing stock market breadth around the globe. When I do these types of updates, we often get asked why we look at international markets both in their local currency terms AND as US-listed ETFs. Why not one or the other? In this quick post we'll walk through our thought process behind it.
We've written a lot of content on the blog about the current market environment over the last few weeks, but we want to use this post to quickly point to two broad-based breadth measures we're watching to identify when a tradeable bottom might be in.
In addition to the updates we've done about the broader market here, here, here, and here, a lot of you have been emailing us asking for more individual trade ideas. Given that we have to be a lot more selective in this environment, I'm going to use this post to outline a number of setups on the long side. The posts linked above explain why we have a long bias.
In July I looked at the trend and momentum readings of stock markets around the world and US Sectors and Sub-Sectors to identify the overall risk appetite for Equities. Today's update will perform the same exercise and compare the results to determine if breadth has improved, deteriorated, or stayed the same, as well as what the implications of these changes are.
In July I looked at the trend and momentum readings of stock markets around the world and India's Sectors to identify the overall risk appetite for Equities. Today's update will perform the same exercise and compare the results to determine if breadth has improved, deteriorated, or stayed the same, as well as what the implications of these changes are.
A major part of the thesis for higher prices in Canada was the breakout in Financials (and REITS) which represent roughly a third of the TSX Composite, however, over the last few weeks we've seen failed breakouts in many of these leading stocks.
In this post I'll highlight some charts identified during my Chartbook update that describe the type of environment we're in for Canadian stocks and why a more neutral stance appears appropriate. Given the correlation between equity markets around the world, I'd also encourage you to read some of our other free pieces about the US here, here, here, and here.
After last week's move to the downside I figured there would be a lot of changes to the IBD 50, and there were, so I want to highlight the characteristics of some names that continue to hold up well.
Some of you guys have been reading my work for over a decade. But I understand there are many newer readers, so I think it's important to address what's going on here. I've been called a Permabull many times for over 2 years now, meaning that they believed I just always had a bullish bias towards stocks. The truth is that while so many were eager to pick a top during this entire rally, I was consistently bullish because the weight of the evidence pointed that way. This is no longer the case and our approach has had to adapt over the past week to a new environment.
We're fortunate to have been accurate with our risk levels. As soon as Small-caps broke 169, things got bad. There was no reason to be in them for us if we were below that in $IWM. Large-caps broke our levels early this week and things got progressively worse after our prices were breached. That is why we set them. That's the good news. The bad news is that I'm confident this is just the beginning.
Here is a list of stocks we want to be shorting to profit from the new bearish stock market environment we've been in this month. I believe this type of market is here to stay and here's how we can benefit:
